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Do you think its actually possible for AAA game companies to truly "crash" as they say?
Posted on 8/17/25 at 8:21 am
Posted on 8/17/25 at 8:21 am
There is no doubt there is a ton of factors working against AAA gaming right now in regards to how secure their financial outlook is in the medium to long term. I will list some below but I am sure i wont be able to get them all so feel free to add any you wish. I am also not really considering a company like xbox in this, since much of this may or may not apply to them, but theyre owned by the most valuable company on earth. These arent in a order or ranking of which i consider most important just a list:
1. The rise of indies and AA games. This might be their biggest problem tbh because its likely the one most wholly outside their control other than maybe the next one ill say. The tech has arrived to where very small teams can for the most part bring the production quality of companies that put 400-1000 people on one game. They can bring it to market intentionally undercutting their prices and make a killing, And with the rise of publishers like Kepler (who did EX 33 btw) which is a sort of co op publisher if you dont know, the studios maintain a % of ownership in their games and when a new studio comes in like sandfall did recently, they become part that co op and becomes part of the studios pooling their money to help publish future games for others.
2. The pending decimation of their business by way of regulation, most likely out of the EU targeting dark patterns, no refunds on micro transactions, etc. The issue is these companies have staked their entire financial existence on in game purchases that very very likely dont have too much life left in them, at least not in anyway similar to how they act now. The EU is going to regulate them into the dirt and that will go global no matter if a single other country acts or not
3. Gamers are average age of like 35 now and we have a backlog of 30+ years. A study I saw last year said something like 70% of gametime is on games 6 years old or more. This just cannot be sustainable.
I am sure theres way more, as I said list them if you got them, but my main question is given all the problems they face can they truly "crash" to the point some of these companies actually fall?
1. The rise of indies and AA games. This might be their biggest problem tbh because its likely the one most wholly outside their control other than maybe the next one ill say. The tech has arrived to where very small teams can for the most part bring the production quality of companies that put 400-1000 people on one game. They can bring it to market intentionally undercutting their prices and make a killing, And with the rise of publishers like Kepler (who did EX 33 btw) which is a sort of co op publisher if you dont know, the studios maintain a % of ownership in their games and when a new studio comes in like sandfall did recently, they become part that co op and becomes part of the studios pooling their money to help publish future games for others.
2. The pending decimation of their business by way of regulation, most likely out of the EU targeting dark patterns, no refunds on micro transactions, etc. The issue is these companies have staked their entire financial existence on in game purchases that very very likely dont have too much life left in them, at least not in anyway similar to how they act now. The EU is going to regulate them into the dirt and that will go global no matter if a single other country acts or not
3. Gamers are average age of like 35 now and we have a backlog of 30+ years. A study I saw last year said something like 70% of gametime is on games 6 years old or more. This just cannot be sustainable.
I am sure theres way more, as I said list them if you got them, but my main question is given all the problems they face can they truly "crash" to the point some of these companies actually fall?
This post was edited on 8/17/25 at 8:27 am
9
Posted on 8/17/25 at 11:17 am to td01241
Isn't Ubisoft basically selling off their main franchises to tencent basically a crash?
Posted on 8/17/25 at 11:35 am to P-Dawg
You could consider that a crash in a way. Not necessarily what I had in mind per se.
I think youre right to point out ubisoft as the poster child for what im getting at, but when I say crash im referencing something that looks like multiple big time AAA studios and publishers all going out of business, as well as the market largely contracting, not due to lack of players or demand but some of the points I laid out in my OP
I think youre right to point out ubisoft as the poster child for what im getting at, but when I say crash im referencing something that looks like multiple big time AAA studios and publishers all going out of business, as well as the market largely contracting, not due to lack of players or demand but some of the points I laid out in my OP
This post was edited on 8/17/25 at 11:36 am
Posted on 8/17/25 at 1:08 pm to td01241
I think it depends on what you mean. I absolutely think it’s possible for a “AAA studio” to overextend itself and have to declare bankruptcy while selling off IP. I also think it’s possible that people start to rethink what it means to be a “AAA studio/game” to begin with. But no, I don’t think AAA studios/games as a whole can realistically crash, short of some larger societal collapse.
This post was edited on 8/17/25 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 8/17/25 at 1:21 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
But no, I don’t think AAA studios/games as a whole can realistically crash, short of some larger societal collapse.
I agree. I just see tons of convo and youtube vids about how we are heading for a gaming crash. It always seems a bit hyperbolic to me. Yeah many of these companies are in not good financial spots, their medium to long term outlook is likely very dire, and another thing i didnt mention in the OP but is important is they contracted their industry way too much way too fast.
I could see how this could easily lead to a reshaping of the video game industry as we know it. But the video game industry is one of the most lucrative on earth it wont just fail like in the 80s
Posted on 8/17/25 at 1:58 pm to td01241
Nothing unprofitable can last.
If investing 100-200 million+ budgets into games consistently loses a lot of money or consistently produces an extremely small ROI, that will simply stop happening.
Studios will have to adapt to smaller budgets and if they can't they'll die out.
This has become and will continue to be a big problem for game devs as gaming technology plateaus. Generational leaps used to be so large that new games didn't compete with old games. New games often made old games look ancient and crude, and you could do things with new tech not possible in old games. That's not really true nowadays. New games have lost the biggest edge they used to have over older ones.
Modern games look and play pretty much the same as games from 10 years ago. Slightly better textures, higher framerates, better lighting effects, sure, but that's not nearly the same jumps used to be.
If I met someone just getting into gaming and they wanted some kick arse games to play, I"m suggesting Bloodborne way before I suggest any releases from the last few years, just as an example.
If investing 100-200 million+ budgets into games consistently loses a lot of money or consistently produces an extremely small ROI, that will simply stop happening.
Studios will have to adapt to smaller budgets and if they can't they'll die out.
quote:
Gamers are average age of like 35 now and we have a backlog of 30+ years. A study I saw last year said something like 70% of gametime is on games 6 years old or more
This has become and will continue to be a big problem for game devs as gaming technology plateaus. Generational leaps used to be so large that new games didn't compete with old games. New games often made old games look ancient and crude, and you could do things with new tech not possible in old games. That's not really true nowadays. New games have lost the biggest edge they used to have over older ones.
Modern games look and play pretty much the same as games from 10 years ago. Slightly better textures, higher framerates, better lighting effects, sure, but that's not nearly the same jumps used to be.
If I met someone just getting into gaming and they wanted some kick arse games to play, I"m suggesting Bloodborne way before I suggest any releases from the last few years, just as an example.
This post was edited on 8/17/25 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 8/17/25 at 2:42 pm to StansberryRules
Yeah it’s insane Witcher 3 is 10 years old! They have supported that game better than any game in history imo. Two amazing cheap expansions, the second is a full size game, tons of free dlc content throughout the time including new quest, armor sets, hair cuts, and more. They essentially remade much of the game in a way to make a ps5 massive upgrade that makes it looks and play 100x better. They’re rolling out console mods soon for it, and it’s all but confirmed they’re doing something I’ve never seen before and no way another company would think to do. A DLC made by fools theory the guys remaking Witcher 1 is being made for Witcher 3 that is meant to release in 2026 and serve as bridge between the story, its ending, ciris status at the end of through Witcher 3 and Witcher 4.
I think this is such a brilliant idea and it makes me think CDPR will be one that thrives. I mean their layout is pure genius for what’s coming up
Fall 2025 bring most mods to console outside of those that sony Nintendo etc won’t allow on their system
2026 drop a brand new story DLC, I don’t think it’ll be an expansion but like 2-3 hours, for Witcher 3 to bridge the narrative gap heading into 4. Also this is a good chance for cdpr to gauge fools theory metal for the full remake of Witcher 1
2027 release Witcher 4
2028 Releaee the remake or Witcher 1
I think this is such a brilliant idea and it makes me think CDPR will be one that thrives. I mean their layout is pure genius for what’s coming up
Fall 2025 bring most mods to console outside of those that sony Nintendo etc won’t allow on their system
2026 drop a brand new story DLC, I don’t think it’ll be an expansion but like 2-3 hours, for Witcher 3 to bridge the narrative gap heading into 4. Also this is a good chance for cdpr to gauge fools theory metal for the full remake of Witcher 1
2027 release Witcher 4
2028 Releaee the remake or Witcher 1
This post was edited on 8/17/25 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 8/17/25 at 10:07 pm to td01241
quote:
A study I saw last year said something like 70% of gametime is on games 6 years old or more. This just cannot be sustainable.
This may be true but its games like GTA online and Fortnite which are constantly adding new content.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 8:11 am to td01241
They're going to crash the entire industry. Spending hundreds of millions (GTA VI might be approaching $2 billion) - so they have to squeeze every
penny out of their customers. Live service everything, brazen monetization of every little thing.
I love the AA studios and indies. I pretty much have a "No" policy for EA and Ubisoft. That is EA and Ubi's fault.
penny out of their customers. Live service everything, brazen monetization of every little thing.
I love the AA studios and indies. I pretty much have a "No" policy for EA and Ubisoft. That is EA and Ubi's fault.
This post was edited on 8/18/25 at 8:12 am
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:02 am to td01241
No.
AAA won’t truly crash. As social norms change so will they. Many large businesses or corporations go through this. We have seen it this past decade with all the woke stuff. The pendulum is starting to shift back to the majority. (American eagle for example)
We all know why AAA sucks right now so I don’t have to go into all that but what I do know is that, pendulum is shifting back and I don’t think we will be having the same discussion in the next decade if not sooner.
Well done baws. Stay vigilant.
AAA won’t truly crash. As social norms change so will they. Many large businesses or corporations go through this. We have seen it this past decade with all the woke stuff. The pendulum is starting to shift back to the majority. (American eagle for example)
We all know why AAA sucks right now so I don’t have to go into all that but what I do know is that, pendulum is shifting back and I don’t think we will be having the same discussion in the next decade if not sooner.
Well done baws. Stay vigilant.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:20 am to P-Dawg
Ubisoft absolutely crashed
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:23 am to td01241
quote:
2026 drop a brand new story DLC, I don’t think it’ll be an expansion but like 2-3 hours,
I dont think CDPR is releasing any new expansions for the witcher 3 in 2026 lol
Which is perfectly fine. The game was incredible as well as the DLCs.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:24 am to Corinthians420
quote:
Ubisoft absolutely crashed
Karma
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:32 am to Ace Midnight
I mean their games have sucked since black flag besides R6 but people kept buying assassins creed 17: into the matrix
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:42 am to Corinthians420
Black Flag was great, but also benefited, sales wise, from being a launch game for the last gen and being on multiple gen platforms.
Origins, Odyssey, and Valhalla modernized the franchise, with Valhalla becoming the top selling AC game of all time. And despite it's issues, Shadows is one of the top selling games of 2025, topping the charts in Europe.
Far Cry 6 was a slight step back, but 3, 4, 5 and New Dawn all did well (and were really good games IMO).
It will be interesting to see what happens with the tencent stuff, but until we see a complete dropoff from their tentpole franchises, I woulnd't completely write them off. But there needs to be a shift/change, for sure.
And for the love, give us a Splinter Cell game.
Origins, Odyssey, and Valhalla modernized the franchise, with Valhalla becoming the top selling AC game of all time. And despite it's issues, Shadows is one of the top selling games of 2025, topping the charts in Europe.
Far Cry 6 was a slight step back, but 3, 4, 5 and New Dawn all did well (and were really good games IMO).
It will be interesting to see what happens with the tencent stuff, but until we see a complete dropoff from their tentpole franchises, I woulnd't completely write them off. But there needs to be a shift/change, for sure.
And for the love, give us a Splinter Cell game.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:50 am to sicboy
quote:
we see a complete dropoff from their tentpole franchises
Ive seen it in quality. Im sure others have as well which is the reason they were going bankrupt and had to sell off to Tencent.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 1:46 pm to td01241
People keep producing game crash content which is 100% nonsense. The game industry is bigger than Hollywood & the music industry. Studios can fail if they produce garbage but that isn't an industry wide crash. Nor will it happen unless some new magical form of entertainment is created to replace gaming.
The original games crash happened when there were only a few players in the entire industry. So if there was one main player and that player failed, then you could say there was a crash but the ET Atari story is overblown. At no time in my lifetime was there ever a time when old and new studios weren't creating new games. The original game crash was just one studio dying.
Now there are 1000s of studios with millions of people working on new games.
TLDR - No. There will never be an industrywide game crash.
The original games crash happened when there were only a few players in the entire industry. So if there was one main player and that player failed, then you could say there was a crash but the ET Atari story is overblown. At no time in my lifetime was there ever a time when old and new studios weren't creating new games. The original game crash was just one studio dying.
Now there are 1000s of studios with millions of people working on new games.
TLDR - No. There will never be an industrywide game crash.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 10:43 pm to Corinthians420
quote:
Which is perfectly fine. The game was incredible as well as the DLCs.
Excellent game that has me wanting to re-install it now. Similar to Cyberpunk, there's always something to do. CDPR has produced some of the games that gave us far more value than we paid for.
I don't play multiplayer, or heavy FPS which keeps me out of most of the AAA conversations, but they're not going to crash. There is always a generation of kids that want to play whatever their friends are playing, and their parents will pay for it. I think decent project managers, product directors, and scrum masters could cut the budget of many of these games by 50% by being organized and knowing how to lead people. Developers being managed by people that don't know anything about technology are a disaster, nobody is held accountable.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 9:18 am to td01241
How do you define “AAA game companies”? Defining AAA games is hard enough. But companies are different. Are we talking about individual studios? Publishers? How do you differentiate between independent studios who partner with big publishers for AAA games compared to studios who are owned by the big publishers?
When people talk about the demise of AAA gaming, it seems like they’re really talking about EA, Ubisoft, and (to a lesser extent since the Microsoft acquisition) ActivisionBlizzard. There are a ton of other companies producing AAA games, plenty of which are very successful.
When people talk about the demise of AAA gaming, it seems like they’re really talking about EA, Ubisoft, and (to a lesser extent since the Microsoft acquisition) ActivisionBlizzard. There are a ton of other companies producing AAA games, plenty of which are very successful.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:59 am to Corinthians420
quote:
I dont think CDPR is releasing any new expansions for the witcher 3 in 2026 lol
How have you not heard about this? It was quite the hot topic about a month or so when this all came to light. The company themselves hasnt officially confirmed it yet (although they have basically done so cheekily on X), but we know their road map is as a laid out above
2025- Console mods for the game
2026- Witcher 3 DLC made by fools theory, lots of theories about what this is, imo it is obviously going to be used as a bridge into the changes they went with in witcher 4 saving that game from having to exposition dump as much
2027- Witcher 4
2028- Witcher 1 remake made by the same fools theory i brought up above.
I wasnt too hyped about witcher 4 on the first trailer tbh, but the tech demo they showed off had clearly shown massive improvement especially in Ciris model. I think the above is an extremely awesome and unique way to go about doing something like this. Leveraging a 10 year old game that you know almost 100% of witcher 4 players will own, to bridge a gap and save time in game and youre own dev resources since it is outsourced is really smart. Now I dont think itll be a full on expansion as some have said. I think itll be just a 1-2 hour thing
This post was edited on 8/20/25 at 1:00 am
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