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How confident are you that Trump and his team know what they are doing with tariffs?
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:04 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:04 am
Boy, it sure sounds like a risky gamble the path this administration is on with a promise of some kind of long term payoff that hasn't been well articulated for people to understand and the time line of which isn't clear either.
Are Bessent and Lutnick as good as they are advertised? Is Bessent really the best macro investor the world has ever known? People like to say Bessent broke the Pound Sterling and forced the Bank of England to devalue it, but come on, he was only 29 when that happened. How much influence could he really have had? It probably was all Soros and Druckenmiller.
I don't know baws. I can't even look at my 401(k) anymore after just 3 days. Don't know how long people will accept this uncertainty and volatility and destruction of wealth and retirement accounts. 401(k) going down 20% seemingly overnight for folks that only have $1M to so to begin with is a bigger deal than the net worth of some billionaire dropping a few billion. The former will feel it immediately. The latter's life won't change much.
Are Bessent and Lutnick as good as they are advertised? Is Bessent really the best macro investor the world has ever known? People like to say Bessent broke the Pound Sterling and forced the Bank of England to devalue it, but come on, he was only 29 when that happened. How much influence could he really have had? It probably was all Soros and Druckenmiller.
I don't know baws. I can't even look at my 401(k) anymore after just 3 days. Don't know how long people will accept this uncertainty and volatility and destruction of wealth and retirement accounts. 401(k) going down 20% seemingly overnight for folks that only have $1M to so to begin with is a bigger deal than the net worth of some billionaire dropping a few billion. The former will feel it immediately. The latter's life won't change much.
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 1:14 am
37
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:08 am to Street Hawk
0% confident
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:10 am to Street Hawk
25%, maybe, I'm not even sure myself what I think needs to happen...I know we don't need to be getting railed like we were on the tariff end of things..but that doesn't necessarly mean going all in is the best play either.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:10 am to thelawnwranglers
I’m skeptical of anyone who is confident one way or the other. No one can know with any reasonable certainty what will happen.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:37 am to Street Hawk
100%
Posted on 4/9/25 at 12:39 am to TigersHuskers
100% except for China. Xi won’t lose face. Not sure what will happen there.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 1:14 am to UptownJoeBrown
More than half of Chinas economy is based on sending us their garbage. They're more fricked than we are.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 4:07 am to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
100% except for China. Xi won’t lose face. Not sure what will happen there.
Especially with Vance calling them "peasants." Face culture in China has been fully activated after that goof, and they'd rather starve to death than show weakness now.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 5:27 am to Street Hawk
Our economic ship is/was on an unsustainable path, unless you subscribe to MMT.
Trump has been speaking about tariffs for 40+ yrs.
A tariffs plus spending cuts and reduction in waste is a must.
Trump has been speaking about tariffs for 40+ yrs.
A tariffs plus spending cuts and reduction in waste is a must.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 5:49 am to Street Hawk
“ I can’t even look at my 401(k) anymore”
Don’t look at it.I’ve been through it several times-Black Monday,1987.
Dot-Com bubble,2000.2007-2008 housing crisis,2020 COVID pandemic.
It can be gut wrenching to be sure to see your portfolio balance drop 50% in a short period of time but that’s the nature of the stock market.If you look at a graph of the S&P 500 it’s a series of ups and downs,over long term the return has averaged about 10%.
I like a quote by Warren Buffett-“ Be greedy when others are fearful,be fearful when others are greedy”.
The way I see it,if Trump doesn’t do something or if he is not successful we’re toast anyway.Decades of fiscal mismanagement by the government,our ever rising national debt,the on going trade deficit.Factor in the millions of illegals,majority of which are a drain on society we are headed for a catastrophe and have been for several decades.
I’m pretty optimistic Trump can turn it around,at least for awhile.
All empires eventually collapse.
Don’t look at it.I’ve been through it several times-Black Monday,1987.
Dot-Com bubble,2000.2007-2008 housing crisis,2020 COVID pandemic.
It can be gut wrenching to be sure to see your portfolio balance drop 50% in a short period of time but that’s the nature of the stock market.If you look at a graph of the S&P 500 it’s a series of ups and downs,over long term the return has averaged about 10%.
I like a quote by Warren Buffett-“ Be greedy when others are fearful,be fearful when others are greedy”.
The way I see it,if Trump doesn’t do something or if he is not successful we’re toast anyway.Decades of fiscal mismanagement by the government,our ever rising national debt,the on going trade deficit.Factor in the millions of illegals,majority of which are a drain on society we are headed for a catastrophe and have been for several decades.
I’m pretty optimistic Trump can turn it around,at least for awhile.
All empires eventually collapse.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:05 am to Street Hawk
I am confident they fully recognize the consequences of doing nothing.
The current credit crisis requires meaningful change in our Debt, our Spending, and our role as the world’s Reserve currency.
Time is up.
The current credit crisis requires meaningful change in our Debt, our Spending, and our role as the world’s Reserve currency.
Time is up.
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 6:08 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:15 am to Street Hawk
I’d feel a lot better if they would show their math instead of ‘just trust us.’
Surely the Trump team has ran the numbers and have some idea of what the end game is.
Surely the Trump team has ran the numbers and have some idea of what the end game is.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:28 am to Street Hawk
The U.S. has the largest consumer spending in the world. We are still a very important market. Therefore I think that the tariffs will bring about some more favorable trade deals for the U.S. I don’t think trade deficits will end though. We are shipping out low value commodities which other countries are using to produce high value end products back to us.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:29 am to Street Hawk
0%
They’re running the country like some adolescent, cocky shite stain would run a start up tech company or Uber app.
They’re running the country like some adolescent, cocky shite stain would run a start up tech company or Uber app.
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 6:41 am
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:39 am to Street Hawk
Very much confident.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:39 am to Street Hawk
I love Trump. The man is truly one of a kind, but let’s just hope the tariffs don’t go the way of the USFL, Trump University, and Trump’s Taj Mahal.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:44 am to Street Hawk
He doesn't know what he's doing
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:51 am to BabyTac
You may never be able to quit your job at McDonald's
Posted on 4/9/25 at 6:52 am to Street Hawk
I was at 5% confidence. Now having seen how they have switched to a "trade imbalance" tariff, I am at 0%.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:04 am to Street Hawk
The levels in which they are set at today have zero percent chance of succeeding.
I think they start backing off very soon
I think they start backing off very soon
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