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Non partisan topic - any real economic plan by anyone that addresses AI displacement?
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:10 pm
I'd have to imagine 5 to 10 years from now a ton of jobs will be replaced by AI. Companies still consumers and those consumers need an income to consume. I suspect a lot of middle and upper middle class white collar jobs will be the first on the chopping block until robotics catches up to replace blue collar trades.
This has the potential to completely reshape society as we know it and I'm not sure that anyone is prepared for how to tackle the changes. That includes the private sector as well as governments around the world. Perhaps because the extent to which this will occur is still largely unknown.
This has the potential to completely reshape society as we know it and I'm not sure that anyone is prepared for how to tackle the changes. That includes the private sector as well as governments around the world. Perhaps because the extent to which this will occur is still largely unknown.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:20 pm to Powerman
It's a dark topic, and one that I haven't heard a lot of plans on either. We've come a long way from the 80s &90s when tech was fresh and exciting because your hard drive space increased 10x every few years. Now it almost feels out of control.
"Current AI is miles away from replacing anything" has always felt like a cope with the pace of technological advancement.
UBI seems like a short term solution, but what incentive does a government have to subsidize people permanently? It's just another mouth to feed. And I don't trust huge, powerful corporations to make ethical decisions.
It may not affect us in theis lifetime, but it's hard to see things going another 100 years without hitting a serious breaking point.
"Current AI is miles away from replacing anything" has always felt like a cope with the pace of technological advancement.
UBI seems like a short term solution, but what incentive does a government have to subsidize people permanently? It's just another mouth to feed. And I don't trust huge, powerful corporations to make ethical decisions.
It may not affect us in theis lifetime, but it's hard to see things going another 100 years without hitting a serious breaking point.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:23 pm to Powerman
The only real answer is protectionism labor laws.
This post was edited on 3/26/25 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:25 pm to Powerman
I don’t think we have a plan outside of the continual expansion of government transfers.
I suspect we’ll go piecewise, without ever developing a sustainable long term plan. 4 or 5 AI companies will dominate the economy, millions will become unemployed, a marginal increase in tax rates for those AI companies will occur to still significantly underpay the workers displaced by the new tech, the AI companies will continue to dominate the economy, and on and on the cycle will go.
When we think on 4 year time horizons, I fear that’s the best we’re going to get.
I suspect we’ll go piecewise, without ever developing a sustainable long term plan. 4 or 5 AI companies will dominate the economy, millions will become unemployed, a marginal increase in tax rates for those AI companies will occur to still significantly underpay the workers displaced by the new tech, the AI companies will continue to dominate the economy, and on and on the cycle will go.
When we think on 4 year time horizons, I fear that’s the best we’re going to get.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:29 pm to Powerman
Well - you could get rid of all the Americans that are used to living comfortably and replace them with the peasants from the world's poorest countries.
You know, people that don't mind eating out of the trash bins...then they could do all the jobs that good folks like you don't want to.
Kind like the old serfdom economic plan but without the freedom.
You know, people that don't mind eating out of the trash bins...then they could do all the jobs that good folks like you don't want to.
Kind like the old serfdom economic plan but without the freedom.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:31 pm to Powerman
On one hand it's concerning but on the other there was talks about autonomous driving 6-7 years ago which have not come to fruition.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:31 pm to Powerman
Maybe learn to code now or get some kind of government job (if you can find them) where they can't use AI on a day to day basis.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:31 pm to Powerman
I heard Weinstein talking about this on a podcast.
Ask Grok more. I asked for concrete examples at the end. Interesting.
quote:
Eric Weinstein has proposed a concept called "Coasian rights" as a potential solution to address job displacement caused by AI, rather than relying on approaches like Universal Basic Income (UBI). This idea is rooted in the Coase Theorem, an economic principle that suggests when property rights are clearly defined and transaction costs are low, parties can negotiate efficient outcomes without external intervention.
Applied to AI-driven job loss, Weinstein's Coasian rights framework would involve granting workers specific, negotiable rights tied to their jobs.
quote:
The logic is based on the Coase Theorem, which assumes that when property rights are well-defined and tradable, parties will bargain to reach an efficient outcome. For example, an employer might offer severance, retraining, or a share of the AI-driven profits to convince the worker to relinquish their right. Alternatively, the worker might negotiate to stay on in a different capacity. The bargaining happens because the worker’s right creates a transaction cost for the employer, shifting the power dynamic away from unilateral automation decisions.
Ask Grok more. I asked for concrete examples at the end. Interesting.
This post was edited on 3/26/25 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:32 pm to Bigdawgb
quote:
It's a dark topic, and one that I haven't heard a lot of plans on either. We've come a long way from the 80s &90s when tech was fresh and exciting because your hard drive space increased 10x every few years. Now it almost feels out of control.
"Current AI is miles away from replacing anything" has always felt like a cope with the pace of technological advancement.
UBI seems like a short term solution, but what incentive does a government have to subsidize people permanently? It's just another mouth to feed. And I don't trust huge, powerful corporations to make ethical decisions.
It may not affect us in theis lifetime, but it's hard to see things going another 100 years without hitting a serious breaking point.
Very solid post.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:37 pm to Powerman
It is going to kill Hollywood and replace most current forms of media production and it won't take long.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:40 pm to LSUbest
quote:
You know, people that don't mind eating out of the trash bins...then they could do all the jobs that good folks like you don't want to
I think you're misunderstanding the problem here. The jobs won't exist whether you're willing to do them or not. How does that problem specifically get addressed?
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:41 pm to Powerman
I think Elon has ideas, but he is a utopian.
Lots of taxes and redistribution, people will get a stipend and do gig work
Lots of taxes and redistribution, people will get a stipend and do gig work
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:42 pm to AaronDeTiger
Scenario:
Sarah, a warehouse worker earning $40,000/year, faces job loss due to an AI robot that saves her employer $30,000 annually. Under Eric Weinstein’s Coasian rights framework, Sarah holds a tradable "job right," forcing the company to negotiate with her before automating her role.
Bargaining Process:
The company offers Sarah $20,000 to relinquish her right. She counters with $50,000 for a year’s salary and retraining. After back-and-forth, they settle on $35,000, including health insurance, allowing the company to automate.
Possible Outcomes:
1. Buyout Agreement: Sarah accepts $35,000, leaves, and retrains for a $38,000/year job. The company nets $5,000 in savings after the payout.
2. Partial Automation with Retraining: Sarah stays part-time at $20,000/year, gets $15,000 for retraining, and assists with robots. The company saves $5,000 versus her full salary.
3. Sarah Sells Her Right: Sarah sells her job right to a third party for $40,000. The buyer negotiates $45,000 from the company, profiting $5,000. The company automates after paying.
Sarah, a warehouse worker earning $40,000/year, faces job loss due to an AI robot that saves her employer $30,000 annually. Under Eric Weinstein’s Coasian rights framework, Sarah holds a tradable "job right," forcing the company to negotiate with her before automating her role.
Bargaining Process:
The company offers Sarah $20,000 to relinquish her right. She counters with $50,000 for a year’s salary and retraining. After back-and-forth, they settle on $35,000, including health insurance, allowing the company to automate.
Possible Outcomes:
1. Buyout Agreement: Sarah accepts $35,000, leaves, and retrains for a $38,000/year job. The company nets $5,000 in savings after the payout.
2. Partial Automation with Retraining: Sarah stays part-time at $20,000/year, gets $15,000 for retraining, and assists with robots. The company saves $5,000 versus her full salary.
3. Sarah Sells Her Right: Sarah sells her job right to a third party for $40,000. The buyer negotiates $45,000 from the company, profiting $5,000. The company automates after paying.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:42 pm to Penrod
quote:
Get rich before then.
That's a personal plan. I'm talking about a societal plan. How is someone who is a toddler today going to become rich before then?
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:43 pm to LB84
quote:
On one hand it's concerning but on the other there was talks about autonomous driving 6-7 years ago which have not come to fruition
Waymo is already there. Don't let Elons deadline failures remove you from reality. I think people are apprehensive about getting in those cars but eventually the cultural zeitgeist will change.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:44 pm to Powerman
Dems dont give two shits about anything except power and "Trump bad". Republicans aren't much better.
ITrump has talked about bringing together top government and private research to attain the best AI quickly, similar to what was done with The Manhattan Project, but ive heard no discussion on your perspective.
I hear some folks talk about AI helping with things like breakthroughs to cheaper energy and this will help humanity. Problem with that is the greedy corporations will not allow this, they want profits.
Whatever technology is created, some rich and powerful folks will use it for profit, not for the betterment of humanity.
ITrump has talked about bringing together top government and private research to attain the best AI quickly, similar to what was done with The Manhattan Project, but ive heard no discussion on your perspective.
I hear some folks talk about AI helping with things like breakthroughs to cheaper energy and this will help humanity. Problem with that is the greedy corporations will not allow this, they want profits.
Whatever technology is created, some rich and powerful folks will use it for profit, not for the betterment of humanity.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:47 pm to AaronDeTiger
quote:
3. Sarah Sells Her Right: Sarah sells her job right to a third party for $40,000. The buyer negotiates $45,000 from the company, profiting $5,000. The company automates after paying.
Right. And what does Sarah do after the 40K inevitably runs out?
Posted on 3/26/25 at 2:52 pm to Powerman
No jobs no bread right comrade?
Let them eat cake.
Let them eat cake.
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