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Message
03/03/25: ATL Fed predicts GDP to fall by -2.8% in 1Q25
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:03 pm
Driven by expanding trade deficits, declines in consumer confidence & spending and lower levels of private investment
https://atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
https://atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
This post was edited on 3/3/25 at 1:15 pm
16
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:09 pm to IMSA_Fan
GDP growth has been increasingly due to debt growth (both public and private) to the point where any GDP growth is depending solely on debt growth.
Imagine what that looks like when consumers start defaulting.
Imagine what that looks like when consumers start defaulting.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:09 pm to IMSA_Fan
Probably because no one bought anything on Friday.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:09 pm to IMSA_Fan
Anyone else miss Joe yet?
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:11 pm to IMSA_Fan
I thought this might happen.
If 20% of the TOTAL budget is fraud, then eliminating that will (short term) drop a nuke on GDP.
Long term this will help though.
If 20% of the TOTAL budget is fraud, then eliminating that will (short term) drop a nuke on GDP.
Long term this will help though.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:17 pm to IMSA_Fan
Let me guess, we’ll go back to the traditional definition of a recession now.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:22 pm to NIH
No
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:40 pm to IMSA_Fan
Any cut on govt spending or employees will impact GDP. It’s a necessary pain.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:44 pm to Bard
quote:
Imagine what that looks like when consumers start defaulting
+1
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:51 pm to Bard
Businesses are not going to invest / banks are not going to lend in an economic environment that is this uncertain
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:52 pm to IMSA_Fan
How do you drive completely off a cliff like this???? Why are the blue chips all solidly in a good place for two months, almost no material changes, then BOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM fricking nightmare territory.
This makes no sense to me.
This makes no sense to me.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 1:55 pm to IMSA_Fan
Have their predictions ever been right? They always revise gdp down during a dem and revise up during a rep. Theyre as reliable as a 1-800 psychic number.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:10 pm to tadman
quote:
How do you drive completely off a cliff like this???? Why are the blue chips all solidly in a good place for two months, almost no material changes, then BOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM fricking nightmare territory.
I don't know, it is almost as if there was a disruption to the system a couple months ago and it is now starting to show effects.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:11 pm to tadman
Trump is the definition of do something guy.
Things broken and need to fix? Do something
Things working fine as intended? Do something
Things broken and need to fix? Do something
Things working fine as intended? Do something
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:15 pm to McLemore
quote:
Let me guess, we’ll go back to the traditional definition of a recession now.
Yep, lol.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:15 pm to Bard
quote:
GDP growth has been increasingly due to debt growth
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:25 pm to IMSA_Fan
Wall Street needs a correction so bad. Plus the U.S. needs help pumping those bond prices higher to reduce interest rates as money flows from Wall Street to the bond markets.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:30 pm to NIH
quote:
Anyone else miss Joe yet?
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:32 pm to SDVTiger
Recession been a long time coming
Posted on 3/3/25 at 2:36 pm to GetCocky11
quote:quote:
How do you drive completely off a cliff like this???? Why are the blue chips all solidly in a good place for two months, almost no material changes, then BOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM fricking nightmare territory.
I don't know, it is almost as if there was a disruption to the system a couple months ago and it is now starting to show effects.
Assuming that is correct, why do all the blue chip analysts continue to predict high-2pct growth as if nothing is happening for months, then come out yesterday and say "JUST KIDDING WERE SCREWED"?
Shouldn't that blue line have slowly started to taper downward if something happened a few months ago?
And what are you alluding to? Trump's inauguration? Surely you don't think he can drive the economy off the cliff that fast, do you?
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