Started By
Message
locked post

LSU Top-10 finishes since 2000

Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:11 pm
Posted by RidiculousHype
The Hatch
Member since Sep 2007
10827 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:11 pm
In the current playoff format, you need to be in the top 10 after conference championship weekend to pretty much guarantee a spot in the playoffs.

We're all disappointed we aren't going to make it in BK's 3rd year. I got to wondering how often since 2000 we would have made it. Here are our top-10 AP finishes after conference championship weekend:

2001*
2003
2005
2006
2007
2011
2012
2019

* conference champs without top 10 finish

That's 8 of the 22 seasons before BK arrived, or 36%.

After this year, BK will be 0-for-3 in top 10 finishes. He needs to make it in 2025 and 2026 in order to beat the preceding average. That would get him to 2-for-5 (40%).

Here are the top-10 finishes by coach:
Saban 2-for-5 (40%)
Miles 5-for-12 (42%)
Orgeron 1-for-5 (20%)
Kelly 0-for-3 (0%)
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 1:49 pm
Posted by derp
Jawja
Member since Feb 2015
1406 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:23 pm to
Put an asterisk next to miles w what he inherited… same w CBK
Posted by ATLTiger24
Member since May 2007
520 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:26 pm to
You've got to add 2001. Guaranteed spot winning the conference.
Posted by wesman21
Youngsville
Member since Jun 2009
3526 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:34 pm to
Miles was probably 3 games away from two more top ten finishes, right?
Posted by rattlebucket
SELA
Member since Feb 2009
12699 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

miles w what he inherited


Unbelievable. 12 seasons.

If CLM coached this year we’d be 9-2 right now. He wasnt going to win another natty but best coach since saban. It was right move to can him but how do you justify saying he inherited? Are you talking about 2005-2007? I can see that argument maybe
Posted by John cocktoasten
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2018
521 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:44 pm to
So, you’re saying it takes 6 years? Thanks Lou T
Posted by RidiculousHype
The Hatch
Member since Sep 2007
10827 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:48 pm to
quote:

You've got to add 2001. Guaranteed spot winning the conference.

You're right.. I was just looking at top 10 finishes without thinking about the auto bid. Will edit to correct
Posted by West Bank Dan
Atlanta
Member since Jan 2010
918 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:50 pm to
Interesting stats - thanks for posting. Two thoughts I have posted before:

* folks talk about how “meaningless” bowl games are but Les Miles seemed to be good at winning that last game which puts fans in a good mood for the off-season plus in can kick you up to top 10 or top 5 in final poll.

* how should we define “elite programs”? I’ll go with consistently top 5 in recruiting and final poll. That keeps you within striking distance of playing for a natty. Top 10 should be our floor / / first goal.

Lastly, remember that we were pre-season ranked ~#13 or so. Posters on TR ranged from 7-5 to 10-2, maybe even a 6-6 or two in there. In short, if we can beat OU and win our bowl game and end up in top 10 I’d say it was a “good” year. Not amazing but good.
Posted by BornAndRaised_LA
Springfield, VA
Member since Oct 2018
6671 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:02 pm to
Uh…it had happen once (2019) in the 9-10 years before he arrived. I understand you want to make a point by including additional years, but those years aren’t relevant. It only happened TWICE from 1971-1999. Also irrelevant.

“Miles had 5 in 13!” Whatever…none occurred in his last 5 years. Was the program trending up or down?

What is more relevant:

1. The state of the program when he was hired?
2. The five years before?
3. 10?
4. Since 2000? (Only this one supports your premise)
5. Historically?

Kelly walked into a gutted program and he’s rebuilding it. All that matters is what the state was when he walked into it and what immense resources (facilities, recruits, money, support) he has to build upon.

This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 2:55 pm
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13934 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:06 pm to
7 out of first 12 seasons

1 out of next 12 seasons
Posted by RidiculousHype
The Hatch
Member since Sep 2007
10827 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

I understand you want to make a point

How do you know what point I want to make? I literally just posted stats.
Posted by tlsu15
Capital of Texas
Member since Aug 2011
10523 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:26 pm to
People also forget the SEC is a much tougher conference today than it was in the first half of the 2000s.

1 playoff appearance in the last 12 years certainly doesn’t put us in the elite category anymore. It won’t be long before the recruits weren’t even born during the Les Miles era.
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 2:27 pm
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78096 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

People also forget the SEC is a much tougher conference today than it was in the first half of the 2000s.


Alabama may have been down but Tennessee and Florida were very much national powers.

Auburn 2004 was a great team.
Posted by MikeTheTiger11
Sip
Member since Sep 2023
773 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

In short, if we can beat OU and win our bowl game and end up in top 10 I’d say it was a “good” year.


Are you saying you think we will end up top 10 in the rankings by beating an average Oklahoma team and a likely very average bowl matchup?? Because that will not move the needle nearly enough. At this point we should hope to end up top 20-25 in the final poll.
Posted by tlsu15
Capital of Texas
Member since Aug 2011
10523 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:40 pm to
Both Tennessee and Florida had already peaked and were on a decline. Spurrier left and Florida didn’t rebound until the Urban years.

Auburn was pretty good, but nothing like the Bama and UGA teams of today. The SEC hit another level in 2007 when Saban returned.

LSU
Florida under Urban
Bama
Georgia

And Auburn had a few great teams in there too
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78096 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:44 pm to
1998 Tennessee football:

13-0
Posted by BornAndRaised_LA
Springfield, VA
Member since Oct 2018
6671 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

How do you know what point I want to make? I literally just posted stats.


When someone cherry picks year increments (especially if doing so creates a narrative that ONLY is supported given those specific dates) and then builds an argument around that data, it’s typically not “just posting stats.”

Otherwise, I invite you to restate your case using the last 10 years and see if you still come to the same conclusion.
Posted by BayouCowboy
Member since Dec 2012
16673 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 3:06 pm to
For context LSU finished the 2018 regular season at #11 which would be a playoff spot and their final ranking in the AP poll was #6.

So Orgeron would have had 2 playoff teams.
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
21181 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Put an asterisk next to miles w what he inherited

If you are putting an asterisk next to miles because his first 3 years were based off of what he inherited from Saban, then you must also be implying that we cannot start judging our HCs until we see what they start doing after 3 full seasons?
Posted by RidiculousHype
The Hatch
Member since Sep 2007
10827 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

When someone cherry picks year increments (especially if doing so creates a narrative that ONLY is supported given those specific dates) and then builds an argument around that data, it’s typically not “just posting stats.”


"Since 2000" isn't really cherry picking though, is it? I mean it's not like I went with "since 1977 but only odd-numbered years in which we played under a full moon". That would be cherry picking.

The whole idea was just to show where LSU has been in recent history, and how often we should expect to be a CFP team in its current format based on that recent history. Sure, I could have cut it off at 1994 or 2002, but 2000 is a nice, round number.

quote:

Otherwise, I invite you to restate your case using the last 10 years and see if you still come to the same conclusion.

I don't really have a case. Like everyone else I'm disappointed we aren't playing for an expanded CFP spot this weekend in year 3 of the BK era.

At the same time, I understand he had to rebuild a program that went 11-12 the two years before he got here, playing with about 45 scholarship players. He was able to stabilize things with a much-improved 20-7 record over his first two years. But we really aren't better in year 3 than we were in year 1. The defensive personnel certainly isn't. The number of exciting young players isn't.

So overall, Kelly gets credit for stopping the bleeding, but objectively the progress has stalled in year 3. Year 4 is big.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 3Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on X, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookXInstagram