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LSU Top-10 finishes since 2000
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:11 pm
In the current playoff format, you need to be in the top 10 after conference championship weekend to pretty much guarantee a spot in the playoffs.
We're all disappointed we aren't going to make it in BK's 3rd year. I got to wondering how often since 2000 we would have made it. Here are our top-10 AP finishes after conference championship weekend:
2001*
2003
2005
2006
2007
2011
2012
2019
* conference champs without top 10 finish
That's 8 of the 22 seasons before BK arrived, or 36%.
After this year, BK will be 0-for-3 in top 10 finishes. He needs to make it in 2025 and 2026 in order to beat the preceding average. That would get him to 2-for-5 (40%).
Here are the top-10 finishes by coach:
Saban 2-for-5 (40%)
Miles 5-for-12 (42%)
Orgeron 1-for-5 (20%)
Kelly 0-for-3 (0%)
We're all disappointed we aren't going to make it in BK's 3rd year. I got to wondering how often since 2000 we would have made it. Here are our top-10 AP finishes after conference championship weekend:
2001*
2003
2005
2006
2007
2011
2012
2019
* conference champs without top 10 finish
That's 8 of the 22 seasons before BK arrived, or 36%.
After this year, BK will be 0-for-3 in top 10 finishes. He needs to make it in 2025 and 2026 in order to beat the preceding average. That would get him to 2-for-5 (40%).
Here are the top-10 finishes by coach:
Saban 2-for-5 (40%)
Miles 5-for-12 (42%)
Orgeron 1-for-5 (20%)
Kelly 0-for-3 (0%)
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:23 pm to RidiculousHype
Put an asterisk next to miles w what he inherited… same w CBK
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:26 pm to RidiculousHype
You've got to add 2001. Guaranteed spot winning the conference.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:34 pm to RidiculousHype
Miles was probably 3 games away from two more top ten finishes, right?
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:34 pm to derp
quote:
miles w what he inherited
Unbelievable. 12 seasons.
If CLM coached this year we’d be 9-2 right now. He wasnt going to win another natty but best coach since saban. It was right move to can him but how do you justify saying he inherited? Are you talking about 2005-2007? I can see that argument maybe
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:44 pm to derp
So, you’re saying it takes 6 years? Thanks Lou T
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:48 pm to ATLTiger24
quote:
You've got to add 2001. Guaranteed spot winning the conference.
You're right.. I was just looking at top 10 finishes without thinking about the auto bid. Will edit to correct
Posted on 11/26/24 at 1:50 pm to RidiculousHype
Interesting stats - thanks for posting. Two thoughts I have posted before:
* folks talk about how “meaningless” bowl games are but Les Miles seemed to be good at winning that last game which puts fans in a good mood for the off-season plus in can kick you up to top 10 or top 5 in final poll.
* how should we define “elite programs”? I’ll go with consistently top 5 in recruiting and final poll. That keeps you within striking distance of playing for a natty. Top 10 should be our floor / / first goal.
Lastly, remember that we were pre-season ranked ~#13 or so. Posters on TR ranged from 7-5 to 10-2, maybe even a 6-6 or two in there. In short, if we can beat OU and win our bowl game and end up in top 10 I’d say it was a “good” year. Not amazing but good.
* folks talk about how “meaningless” bowl games are but Les Miles seemed to be good at winning that last game which puts fans in a good mood for the off-season plus in can kick you up to top 10 or top 5 in final poll.
* how should we define “elite programs”? I’ll go with consistently top 5 in recruiting and final poll. That keeps you within striking distance of playing for a natty. Top 10 should be our floor / / first goal.
Lastly, remember that we were pre-season ranked ~#13 or so. Posters on TR ranged from 7-5 to 10-2, maybe even a 6-6 or two in there. In short, if we can beat OU and win our bowl game and end up in top 10 I’d say it was a “good” year. Not amazing but good.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:02 pm to RidiculousHype
Uh…it had happen once (2019) in the 9-10 years before he arrived. I understand you want to make a point by including additional years, but those years aren’t relevant. It only happened TWICE from 1971-1999. Also irrelevant.
“Miles had 5 in 13!” Whatever…none occurred in his last 5 years. Was the program trending up or down?
What is more relevant:
1. The state of the program when he was hired?
2. The five years before?
3. 10?
4. Since 2000? (Only this one supports your premise)
5. Historically?
Kelly walked into a gutted program and he’s rebuilding it. All that matters is what the state was when he walked into it and what immense resources (facilities, recruits, money, support) he has to build upon.
“Miles had 5 in 13!” Whatever…none occurred in his last 5 years. Was the program trending up or down?
What is more relevant:
1. The state of the program when he was hired?
2. The five years before?
3. 10?
4. Since 2000? (Only this one supports your premise)
5. Historically?
Kelly walked into a gutted program and he’s rebuilding it. All that matters is what the state was when he walked into it and what immense resources (facilities, recruits, money, support) he has to build upon.
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:06 pm to RidiculousHype
7 out of first 12 seasons
1 out of next 12 seasons
1 out of next 12 seasons
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:22 pm to BornAndRaised_LA
quote:
I understand you want to make a point
How do you know what point I want to make? I literally just posted stats.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:26 pm to RidiculousHype
People also forget the SEC is a much tougher conference today than it was in the first half of the 2000s.
1 playoff appearance in the last 12 years certainly doesn’t put us in the elite category anymore. It won’t be long before the recruits weren’t even born during the Les Miles era.
1 playoff appearance in the last 12 years certainly doesn’t put us in the elite category anymore. It won’t be long before the recruits weren’t even born during the Les Miles era.
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:28 pm to tlsu15
quote:
People also forget the SEC is a much tougher conference today than it was in the first half of the 2000s.
Alabama may have been down but Tennessee and Florida were very much national powers.
Auburn 2004 was a great team.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:28 pm to West Bank Dan
quote:
In short, if we can beat OU and win our bowl game and end up in top 10 I’d say it was a “good” year.
Are you saying you think we will end up top 10 in the rankings by beating an average Oklahoma team and a likely very average bowl matchup?? Because that will not move the needle nearly enough. At this point we should hope to end up top 20-25 in the final poll.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:40 pm to Paul Allen
Both Tennessee and Florida had already peaked and were on a decline. Spurrier left and Florida didn’t rebound until the Urban years.
Auburn was pretty good, but nothing like the Bama and UGA teams of today. The SEC hit another level in 2007 when Saban returned.
LSU
Florida under Urban
Bama
Georgia
And Auburn had a few great teams in there too
Auburn was pretty good, but nothing like the Bama and UGA teams of today. The SEC hit another level in 2007 when Saban returned.
LSU
Florida under Urban
Bama
Georgia
And Auburn had a few great teams in there too
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:44 pm to tlsu15
1998 Tennessee football:
13-0
13-0
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:53 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
How do you know what point I want to make? I literally just posted stats.
When someone cherry picks year increments (especially if doing so creates a narrative that ONLY is supported given those specific dates) and then builds an argument around that data, it’s typically not “just posting stats.”
Otherwise, I invite you to restate your case using the last 10 years and see if you still come to the same conclusion.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 3:06 pm to RidiculousHype
For context LSU finished the 2018 regular season at #11 which would be a playoff spot and their final ranking in the AP poll was #6.
So Orgeron would have had 2 playoff teams.
So Orgeron would have had 2 playoff teams.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 3:14 pm to derp
quote:
Put an asterisk next to miles w what he inherited
If you are putting an asterisk next to miles because his first 3 years were based off of what he inherited from Saban, then you must also be implying that we cannot start judging our HCs until we see what they start doing after 3 full seasons?
Posted on 11/26/24 at 4:16 pm to BornAndRaised_LA
quote:
When someone cherry picks year increments (especially if doing so creates a narrative that ONLY is supported given those specific dates) and then builds an argument around that data, it’s typically not “just posting stats.”
"Since 2000" isn't really cherry picking though, is it? I mean it's not like I went with "since 1977 but only odd-numbered years in which we played under a full moon". That would be cherry picking.
The whole idea was just to show where LSU has been in recent history, and how often we should expect to be a CFP team in its current format based on that recent history. Sure, I could have cut it off at 1994 or 2002, but 2000 is a nice, round number.
quote:
Otherwise, I invite you to restate your case using the last 10 years and see if you still come to the same conclusion.
I don't really have a case. Like everyone else I'm disappointed we aren't playing for an expanded CFP spot this weekend in year 3 of the BK era.
At the same time, I understand he had to rebuild a program that went 11-12 the two years before he got here, playing with about 45 scholarship players. He was able to stabilize things with a much-improved 20-7 record over his first two years. But we really aren't better in year 3 than we were in year 1. The defensive personnel certainly isn't. The number of exciting young players isn't.
So overall, Kelly gets credit for stopping the bleeding, but objectively the progress has stalled in year 3. Year 4 is big.
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