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Can we talk about the polling miss in Florida?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:40 pm
How does this make you feel about the rest of the polling done? What would a 4-6 point miss mean?
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Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:42 pm to John Barron
Stays true to Trump always over performing polling by 5-7 pts.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:43 pm to John Barron
It would mean that the polls still are underestimating the Trump /Republican vote as they have been for over a decade almost by the same % 6ish
That's why you shouldn't pay attention to polling
That's why you shouldn't pay attention to polling
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:43 pm to John Barron
If all other polls underrepresented Trump's support by a minimum of 5.5%, we could be legitimately looking at an electoral map that looks similar to this:
And I'm not exaggerating.
And I'm not exaggerating.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:43 pm to Jack Ruby
Yes, it's funny how no MSM are talking about that and the fact the Abortion issue was on the ballot
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:44 pm to TDsngumbo
Please, eight pound Baby Jesus!
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:44 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
all other polls underrepresented Trump's support by a minimum of 5.5%, we could be legitimately looking at an electoral map that looks similar to this:
The melt that would cause would be tasty
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:44 pm to TDsngumbo
Damn i hope your right!
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:44 pm to Jack Ruby
quote:yep as I suspected and Trump was even in the National GE polling.
Stays true to Trump always over performing polling by 5-7 pts.
Technically that means a popular vote landslide isn’t out of the question. If he was polling even then he could win popular vote by 5% with a fair electorate.
ETA but that doesn’t account for all the illegals that are allowed to vote in deep blue states but it could still be a Trump popular vote win by a couple points
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:45 pm to John Barron
The silent vote is huge. Talked to a client yesterday who has in the past voted for democrats since she was able. Shocked me that she stated that she voted for Trump this time. Said she can't stand him but knows he's the better option for running the country. There are millions more like her.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:45 pm to John Barron
While promising for sure, these numbers aren’t results.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:45 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
And I'm not exaggerating.
Correct, and CO and NJ could be too close to call or 52-48 votes.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:45 pm to TDsngumbo
Talk about a melt if they missed that bad.
I’m guessing some states will be like 2 or 3 point misses
I’m guessing some states will be like 2 or 3 point misses
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:46 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
While promising for sure, these numbers aren’t results.
Hold on to hope.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:46 pm to John Barron
quote:But being the conservative that I am, I can't help but conclude that GOP voters is not the same as Trump votes.
GOP leads the turnout by 11.5 points.
There are a lot of Republicans who refuse to support President Trump.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:47 pm to John Barron
After 2016 the fact that polling is still the biggest post generating topic baffles me.
99% of polling is sh!t. Always has been...always will be.
99% of polling is sh!t. Always has been...always will be.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:47 pm to TDsngumbo
Maybe even NJ.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:48 pm to John Barron
Poll populations always contain biases. They’ll never be extremely accurate
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:48 pm to LSURussian
quote:
There are a lot of Republicans who refuse to support President Trump.
This. Let’s not start sucking each others dicks yet.
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