Newsweek: Kamala Harris Poised To Get a Major Boost From Falling Gas Prices?

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Prices at the pump dropped to a three-year low on Labor Day weekend and are expected to continue falling through November, reaching lows that would please drivers and favor Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the presidential election.

After reaching a peak of $3.69 per gallon in April, gas prices have been sliding down steadily in the past few months, making it a good summer for motorists. The national average for a gallon of regular was $3.333 as of September 1, down 15 cents from a month earlier and more than 50 cents from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

The price per gallon ranged from a maximum of $4.645 in California to a minimum of $2.862 in Mississippi.

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Experts, including De Haan, expect gas prices to continue dropping in the U.S. in the coming weeks, as U.S. refineries seem to be handling heat waves better than they did last year—when soaring temperatures forced Texas refineries to reduce operations—and this year's hurricane season has so far been quieter than expected.

In 2023, Hurricane Idalia forced Chevron to evacuate staff from three of its oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, temporarily shutting down production and contributing to higher gas prices at the pump.

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"Right now, refiner margins for gasoline are at about $5/barrel in the largest market—the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. At the moment, gasoline can't trade much lower unless crude oil costs drop."

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While presidents and their administrations have very little control over gas prices—which can be affected by major global events, decisions on oil production made in third world countries such as Iran, and extreme weather events—they're often blamed when gas prices rise.

When gas prices rose in 2022, reaching a peak of $5.02 on average nationwide, Republicans—including Donald Trump—were quick to point the finger at Joe Biden.

Americans burdened by the higher cost of living following the pandemic also appeared to blame the president for it: a survey ran by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for Newsweek on January 18, 2024, found that 55 percent of Americans said they had seen a price rise in their local area and believed it was "primarily caused" by government mismanagement.

Being credited for lower gas prices, on the other hand, is a little bit harder. The same poll found that 36 percent of Americans thought Biden had nothing to do with prices dropping over the past year, while 24 percent said he was "slightly" responsible, 23 percent said he was "fairly" and 17 percent said "significantly."

Despite lower inflation, economic anxiety is still rampant among Americans, as shown by recent polls. Forty-one percent of Americans polled by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek last month thought that the U.S. economy was still heading in the wrong direction. A majority of 93 percent of these blamed Biden for it, while 88 percent thought Harris was also responsible to some degree.

That means that Harris, despite having markedly improved her popularity since she announced her bid for the presidency, has very little room for error when it comes to gas prices. Especially as Trump continues to promote a narrative that sees the Biden-Harris administration as single-handedly responsible for rising inflation in the post-pandemic recovery.

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The issue of gas prices is certainly one concerning California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who's been fighting for legislation that would cut prices at the pump in what's the most expensive state in the nation.

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What's clear is that gas prices will play a crucial role in the incoming election. As in the words of Cinquegrana: "There are three things that move the needle in this country: politics, religion and gas prices.“

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