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QQQ vs the world's best hedge funds

Posted on 8/17/24 at 12:04 am
Posted by rickgrimes
Member since Jan 2011
4260 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 12:04 am
quote:

1. Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) vs. QQQ

$1 million invested in Berkshire Hathaway in 2014 might have grown to around $2.5 million by 2024, based on the company's historical performance. In contrast, the same amount invested in QQQ would have grown to approximately $4.2 million. QQQ's focus on high-growth tech companies provided superior returns with lower volatility than Berkshire's value-oriented approach.

2. Bill Ackman (Pershing Square Capital) vs. QQQ

Ackman's hedge fund has had ups and downs. $1 million invested with Pershing Square in 2014 might have grown to about $2.2 million by 2024, factoring in some high-profile losses. QQQ's $4.2 million return significantly outperforms this, with far less drama and lower fees (QQQ's expense ratio is just 0.20% compared to hedge fund fees often exceeding 2% plus 20% of profits).

3. Dan Loeb (Third Point) vs. QQQ

Third Point's performance has been respectable but inconsistent. $1 million invested in 2014 might have grown to around $2.8 million by 2024. Again, QQQ's $4.2 million return is superior, achieved with lower volatility and without the high fees associated with hedge funds.

4. Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) vs. QQQ

Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund has struggled in recent years. $1 million invested in 2014 might have only grown to about $1.8 million by 2024. QQQ's performance is more than double this, with significantly lower fees and complexity.

5. David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) vs. QQQ

Einhorn's fund has faced challenges, particularly due to short positions against tech companies. $1 million invested in 2014 might have actually decreased to about $800,000 by 2024. QQQ's tech-heavy portfolio has clearly been the better choice.

6. Seth Klarman (Baupost Group) vs. QQQ

Klarman's value-oriented approach has yielded steady but unspectacular returns. $1 million invested in 2014 might have grown to about $2.3 million by 2024. QQQ's growth-focused strategy has provided nearly double these returns.

7. Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corporation) vs. QQQ

Tudor's Global Fund has had mixed results. $1 million invested in 2014 might have grown to about $2 million by 2024. QQQ's performance is more than double this, with lower fees and less complexity.

8. Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies) vs. QQQ

While Renaissance's Medallion Fund has legendary status, it's closed to outside investors. Their public funds have had more modest results. $1 million invested in 2014 might have grown to about $2.5 million by 2024. QQQ still outperforms with its $4.2 million return.

9. John Paulson (Paulson & Co.) vs. QQQ

Paulson's funds have struggled since his famous subprime mortgage bet. $1 million invested in 2014 might have decreased to about $600,000 by 2024. QQQ's steady growth presents a stark contrast to this volatility.

10. George Soros (Soros Fund Management) vs. QQQ

While Soros is a legendary investor, his family office doesn't disclose returns. However, estimates suggest $1 million invested in 2014 might have grown to about $2.7 million by 2024. QQQ still outperforms this estimate.

QQQ's performance over the past decade has consistently outpaced even the most renowned money managers. Its focus on innovative, high-growth companies, particularly in the tech sector, has driven superior returns. Moreover, QQQ offers several advantages:

1. Lower fees: QQQ's 0.20% expense ratio is a fraction of the fees charged by hedge funds and actively managed mutual funds.
2. Lower volatility: QQQ's diversified portfolio of 100 leading non-financial companies provides more stability than many concentrated hedge fund portfolios.
3. Transparency: QQQ's holdings are publicly available, unlike the often opaque strategies of hedge funds.
4. Liquidity: QQQ can be bought and sold easily, unlike investments locked up in hedge funds.
5. Anyone can buy QQQ!

LINK

VGT is probably up there too. You rarely go wrong with VGT or QQQ.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
37064 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 12:15 am to
quote:


VGT is probably up there too. You rarely go wrong with VGT or QQQ.
It's not a terrible point, but volatility matters. Not everyone can afford to just randomly be down 35% at points in time.

Also, you said "world's best hedge funds", but how did you arrive at that designation? They're certainly famous and big, but it seems circular to call them "best".
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8459 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 8:35 am to
Now do it from 2000 to 2014
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24737 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 9:02 am to
No kidding…tech has crushed it the last decade so of course that ETF is better positioned.
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47316 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 9:52 am to
quote:

It's not a terrible point, but volatility matters. Not everyone can afford to just randomly be down 35% at points in time.

Isn’t he saying volatility is lower with QQQ?

Also if you’re investing for the time periods he’s talking about, you should definitely be able to afford to be down 35%. You’re not touching the money anyways.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4814 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 11:24 am to
quote:

8. Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies) vs. QQQ While Renaissance's Medallion Fund has legendary status, it's closed to outside investors. Their public funds have had more modest results. $1 million invested in 2014 might have grown to about $2.5 million by 2024. QQQ still outperforms with its $4.2 million return.


Kinda misleading to try to compare hedge funds and then use the one that’s underperformed. I get that the medallion fund isn’t open to investors but it’s definitely outperformed QQQ.

Using a FV calc and showing $1m invested in 2014 with the 39% average NET returns year over year, medallion fund would be sitting at roughly $27m by year end of 2024.
This post was edited on 8/17/24 at 11:41 am
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
37064 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 11:45 am to
quote:


Isn’t he saying volatility is lower with QQQ?
no. He didn't comment on vol at all. It was ignored.

quote:


Also if you’re investing for the time periods he’s talking about, you should definitely be able to afford to be down 35%. You’re not touching the money anyways.


From 2014 - 2024? What do you know about those random years for an entire investing population you know nothing about?
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
37064 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 11:46 am to
quote:


Kinda misleading to try to compare hedge funds and then use the one that’s underperformed. I get that the medallion fund isn’t open to investors but it’s definitely outperformed QQQ.

Using a FV calc and showing $1m invested in 2014 with the 39% average NET returns year over year, medallion fund would be sitting at roughly $27m by year end of 2024.
Correct.
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
285 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 12:05 pm to
Most hedge funds don't make money for clients. What they do very well is preserve wealth/purchasing power while alleviating all the stress associated with doing it yourself. That's what clients pay for.

Jim Simmons is obviously an exception.
Posted by rickgrimes
Member since Jan 2011
4260 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

It's not a terrible point, but volatility matters. Not everyone can afford to just randomly be down 35% at points in time.


Isn't the guy in the original tweet saying QQQ offers lower volatility than hedge funds while giving higher returns? What am I missing?

quote:

2. Lower volatility: QQQ's diversified portfolio of 100 leading non-financial companies provides more stability than many concentrated hedge fund portfolios.


quote:

Also, you said "world's best hedge funds", but how did you arrive at that designation? They're certainly famous and big, but it seems circular to call them "best".

Fair enough. I didn't know if they were the biggest either, so went with 'best'. Probably should have said 'top' or something more generic like that.
This post was edited on 8/17/24 at 12:52 pm
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
37064 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 1:08 pm to
He made this claim:

quote:

2. Lower volatility: QQQ's diversified portfolio of 100 leading non-financial companies provides more stability than many concentrated hedge fund portfolios.


I'm just not sure where he's getting his data (if he even has any). e.g. In 2022, "hedge funds" were up like 7% for the year while QQQ was down like 40%. QQQ is legendarily volatile, subject to massive up and down swings.

"Provides more stability"? Just not even sure what he thinks he means.
Posted by UpstairsComputer
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2017
1745 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 4:33 pm to
Is the theory when rates are at zero, QE is abundant, and the government is spending trillions beyond their means we should be in tech stocks? Whoda thunk it?
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
43797 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 5:18 pm to
These old guys love banks. WB was anti Apple until it made him bend the knee.
Posted by SM1010
Member since Oct 2020
1198 posts
Posted on 8/17/24 at 10:23 pm to
I work in the hedge fund world of finance. 99% of them significantly underperform the S&P 500. Like someone else mentioned though they're not really trying to beat the indexes anyway.

For some reason there's this notion among retail investors that hedge funds get to skirt all the rules screw the common man with their unfair advantages.

When ironically all the retail investor has to do is S&P & chill to beat those evil hedge funds. Couldn't be easier
This post was edited on 8/17/24 at 10:27 pm
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
79740 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 1:35 am to
Qqq is where I throw some of my roth with vanguard. It’s done well the past few years.



This post was edited on 8/18/24 at 1:38 am
Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
907 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 6:31 am to
Off topic I know but, anyone use the TQQQ as a trading vehicle?
Posted by VanJoe
Member since May 2020
34 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 6:56 am to
TQQQ is my top gainer ytd.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
37064 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 11:35 am to
quote:

I work in the hedge fund world of finance. 99% of them significantly underperform the S&P 500
I don't know if it's 99%. At the very least, it depends on how "underperform" is defined.
Posted by Tigerfan14
Member since Jun 2014
1460 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 12:57 pm to
I don’t understand why this got some people worked up. For a fund that you basically just buy and forget about, it has performed incredibly well. It’s obviously done better in the last decade with the tech boom, but the average is around 18% per year since 2000. There were a couple terrible years when the market crashed, but it was usually followed by an insane growth the next year that wiped out the loss.

Nobody knows what the market is going to look like in the next 20 years, but it’s a pretty safe bet to put your money there and have some easy success.
Posted by ItzMe1972
Member since Dec 2013
11503 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 1:04 pm to
I'm up 1,400% over last 16 years in QQQ.
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