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Message
Sahm Rule not activated. Rules were meant to be broken says Claudia
Posted on 8/7/24 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 8/7/24 at 2:51 pm
LINK
quote:
The US is not in a recession, despite the indicator bearing my name saying that it is. The Sahm rule, which was triggered with Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, joins a long list of economic tools skewed by the unusual disruptions of the past four and a half years.
That said — and I say this with a mixture of humility and concern — the Sahm rule is still relevant. The risk of a recession is elevated, strengthening the case for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
5
Posted on 8/7/24 at 3:19 pm to SDVTiger
lol
why dunk on yourself like that?
“my rule sucks and should be ignored”
why dunk on yourself like that?
“my rule sucks and should be ignored”
Posted on 8/7/24 at 3:19 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
The risk of a recession is elevated
And will continue to be until November 6th. At that time it will either be considered a recession (ie: if Trump wins) or it will never "technically" be a recession (if Harris wins).
Posted on 8/7/24 at 4:01 pm to Hateradedrink
Trying hard to keep recession off the table 
Posted on 8/7/24 at 4:06 pm to SDVTiger
If you pull up the chart that has been floating around you can see several instances (at least as depicted in the chart) where a recession did NOT follow the Sahm Rule and a few where the Sahm Rule didn't trigger until we were well into a recession.
I saw everyone talking about the Sahm Rule at the beginning of the week and couldn't understand why it was such a "good" indicator of imminent recession.
I saw everyone talking about the Sahm Rule at the beginning of the week and couldn't understand why it was such a "good" indicator of imminent recession.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 4:11 pm to SDVTiger
Sahm politics is left leaning. She is a guest on Bloomberg often. Doesn’t hide it.
MSM is consistent.
MSM is consistent.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 5:12 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I saw everyone talking about the Sahm Rule at the beginning of the week and couldn't understand why it was such a "good" indicator of imminent recession.
That’s a good and legitimate question. Although I’d heard of it, I’d never studied it, because it was introduced decades after I got my degree in Econ. To your question, having only been introduced in 2019, I don’t know how “good” of an indicator it really is. I assume that she backtested the theory, but I don’t know.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:16 pm to SDVTiger
Who honestly thinks we’re in a recession right now?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:51 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
why dunk on yourself like that? “my rule sucks and should be ignored”
Because she’s likely a leftist academic who will do anything to continue sucking on the government tit for funding. They’d all take it in the arse if it meant they could keep democrats in power and the gravy train running.
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 7:02 pm
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:54 pm to slackster
quote:
Who honestly thinks we’re in a recession right now?
Me
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:03 pm to slackster
quote:
Who honestly thinks we’re in a recession right now?
We have been in one for a while now
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:18 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
We have been in one for a while now
By what metrics? I’m genuinely interested.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:18 pm to LoneStar23
quote:
Me
Why?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:04 pm to slackster
quote:
By what metrics? I’m genuinely interested.
Are you trying to claim this admin didnt change the meaning of a recession
So the tarditonal ones that were changed by them
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:11 pm to SDVTiger
It sure as hell hasn’t seemed like a recession in any way I can figure.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:14 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Are you trying to claim this admin didnt change the meaning of a recession So the tarditonal ones that were changed by them
Is this an answer? Give me a couple metrics that fit even the pre-Biden era definition of a recession and prove we’re currently in a recession and have been for a while.
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:13 pm to slackster
A recession is like pornography. I can't define it, but know it when I see it.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 7:34 am to Hateradedrink
It's all about moving the goal posts and changing definitions
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:19 am to slackster
quote:
By what metrics? I’m genuinely interested.
I go by the traditional short-hand of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. By that measure, we have not been in a recession (and I have not argued otherwise).
If we were to parse out how much GDP increase since 2022 has been due to consumer debt creation being only serviced (not paid down), we would likely have been in a recession for over a year now. I know that's moving the goal posts a bit and not many really look at it in that light, but for me it says we should be considering ourselves as being in a recession.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:18 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
I assume that she backtested the theory, but I don’t know.
Yea I'm just going off the chart that was floated around this board and elsewhere on the internet. Maybe it is a resolution error or something like that, but the charts I've seen clearly show several instances where the Sahm Rule triggered but no recession followed.
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