- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Tracking the Presidential Election race: 8/11 update - Harris Leading
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:21 am
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:21 am
I will try to update this on a daily basis/as appropriate. I welcome others’ opinions on who they think is leading and any data in support.
Date / Time: Leader
8/11 10:56 am CT: Harris
NY Times/Siena polls released yesterday show Harris leading in MI, WI, and most importantly, PA. PA is close to being an absolute “must win” for Trump. New Trafalgar poll has Trump up 2 in PA.
I’m changing it back to Harris leading as the NYT/Siena poll was significantly more accurate than Trafalgar in 2022 (see chart), and since Harris’ lead on PredIct has grown to 15 cents.
—————————————————————
Prior Update:
8/09 8:43 am CT: Tossup
New CNBC and Rasmussen polls have Trump up nationally +2 and +5 respectively.
New Reuters poll has Harris up 5 nationally.
If we toss out the Reuters and Rasmussen polls for being the recent outliers, the average of the recent national polls has Harris up 2. Trump won 2016 while losing the popular vote by 2%.
Betting markets on the balance show Harris as a slight favorite. Despite the Trump-favorable CNBC and Rasmussen polls, Harris has become a stronger favorite on PredictIt since yesterday’s update, now with a 10 cent lead.
———————————
History:
8/09 8:43 am CT: Tossup
8/08 8:15 am CT: Harris
8/07 8:20 am CT: Harris
Date / Time: Leader
8/11 10:56 am CT: Harris
NY Times/Siena polls released yesterday show Harris leading in MI, WI, and most importantly, PA. PA is close to being an absolute “must win” for Trump. New Trafalgar poll has Trump up 2 in PA.
I’m changing it back to Harris leading as the NYT/Siena poll was significantly more accurate than Trafalgar in 2022 (see chart), and since Harris’ lead on PredIct has grown to 15 cents.
—————————————————————
Prior Update:
8/09 8:43 am CT: Tossup
New CNBC and Rasmussen polls have Trump up nationally +2 and +5 respectively.
New Reuters poll has Harris up 5 nationally.
If we toss out the Reuters and Rasmussen polls for being the recent outliers, the average of the recent national polls has Harris up 2. Trump won 2016 while losing the popular vote by 2%.
Betting markets on the balance show Harris as a slight favorite. Despite the Trump-favorable CNBC and Rasmussen polls, Harris has become a stronger favorite on PredictIt since yesterday’s update, now with a 10 cent lead.
———————————
History:
8/09 8:43 am CT: Tossup
8/08 8:15 am CT: Harris
8/07 8:20 am CT: Harris
This post was edited on 8/11/24 at 2:30 pm
63
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:23 am to Jon Ham
You are only going to update this while you think Harris is winning since you are part of the men for harris team
Good grief you bots are so pathetic
Good grief you bots are so pathetic
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:24 am to Jon Ham
Shades of 2016.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:24 am to Jon Ham
quote:
I will try to update this on a daily basis/as appropriate
Oh you be sure to do that
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:24 am to Jon Ham
You're voting for and support Harris... we get it. 
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:27 am to Jon Ham
While the GE polling is important to make the cheating in swing states more believable the battleground state polling is important in terms of winning EVs. I know it's a lot of work to post each battleground state but RCP does have a summary page: LINK
The pollsters need to get Kamala +3 in GE polling to get the steal on.
The pollsters need to get Kamala +3 in GE polling to get the steal on.
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 8:28 am
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:28 am to Jon Ham
quote:
New poll shows massive shift for independent voters
Independent voters, who often play an outsized role in presidential contests given the deeply partisan split of the country, went for Harris by a margin of 53% to 44% — a 9% lead.
In a poll released by the same pollster on July 23, just two weeks earlier, Trump led independent voters by 14% — 46% to 32%.
LINK
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:30 am to Jon Ham
So most of those who participated are sadists?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:30 am to TejasHorn
WTF is a Mass Live poll? Is this the poll you DU folks live by?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:30 am to Jon Ham
Trump never led in the polls in 2016 outside of a few seconds of a post nomination and post convention bump and never led in 2020. Despite that Trump won in 2016 and “lost” by 40,000 votes in 3 states in 2020. Let them put out all the pills they want if it makes them feel better.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:31 am to Mike da Tigah
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:31 am to Jon Ham
Lol, they are putting out these fake numbers to help make it believable when they fix the election for her.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:31 am to GumboPot
While that electoral college map is based on the most recent polling from each state, the most recent polling is a little out of date. If new swing state polliing tracks in same direction as the national polling, expect the map to shift in Harris’ favor in the near future.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:31 am to Jon Ham
quote:
I will try to update this on a daily basis/as appropriate.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:32 am to Jon Ham
quote:
I welcome others’ opinions on who they think is leading and any data in support.
Fake news. Trump is leading. Don't believe that shite. They're pumping her up like a balloon. It'll pop in November.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:32 am to TejasHorn
quote:
Independent voters, who often play an outsized role in presidential contests given the deeply partisan split of the country, went for Harris by a margin of 53% to 44% — a 9% lead. In a poll released by the same pollster on July 23, just two weeks earlier, Trump led independent voters by 14% — 46% to 32%.
If true, imagine being that fickle and indecisive.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:33 am to Jon Ham
God damn when will you dumb fricks stop posting national polls vs battleground polls
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:34 am to Jon Ham
How can someone who has zero policy points and is afraid to go off script in an interview/debate be leading.
This Country Is Going To shite
MAGA
This Country Is Going To shite
MAGA
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:34 am to Gifman
Democrats are not necessarily excited about Kamala. They are excited that they have a live body they can vote for. The Weekend at Bernie's routine for Biden was even too much for Democrat adjacent voters. In terms of breathing the juxtaposition between Kamala and Biden is pretty big and this excites a lot of apolitical and Democrat adjacent voters.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:35 am to Jon Ham
quote:
I will try to update this on a daily basis/as appropriate.
I doubt you'll update this poll if it starts swinging Trump's way
Page 1 of 8
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News