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Buffet SELLS 1/2 stake in APPLE. Berkshire hoarding cash. RECESSION IMMINENT

Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:28 pm
Posted by Covingtontiger77
Member since Dec 2015
11709 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:28 pm
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61304 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:32 pm to
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
31727 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:33 pm to
*yawn*
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
12864 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:39 pm to
This could be right. But he’s been hoarding cash for a long time now.
Posted by Covingtontiger77
Member since Dec 2015
11709 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

This could be right. But he’s been hoarding cash for a long time now.



If not in preparation of a crash, what else could he hoarding that much cash for?
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
51555 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:45 pm to
Berkshire was at like 190B in cash before the sale... not sure it means a whole lot other than they no longer saw Apple as a great investment.

At their size they basically have large cash reserves all the time, because there is not that much they can buy that can move the needle and still be "value"
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
12864 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

If not in preparation of a crash, what else could he hoarding that much cash for?


For years Buffet has been saying that he doesn’t see anything worth buying. He has gotten a lot of criticism for sitting on that pile of cash. Who knows, maybe he’ll be proven right.
Posted by Curb Your TDS
Member since Aug 2024
70 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 3:17 pm to
He has also been selling BAC hand over fist.
He is now sitting at nearly 50% Cash, 50% Stocks.
I can't recall a time in Berkshire's History that they were 50% cash, not even close.
You're a fool if that doesn't raise some Red Flags.

Here's how much cash Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B have had every Q2 since 1992

1992: $831M
1993: $1.4B
1994: $186M
1995: $1.9B
1996: $819M
1997: $537M
1998: $6.9B
1999: $6.5B
2000: $36.7B
2001: $59.6B
2002: $66.1B
2003: $39.3B
2004: $43B
2005: $46B
2006: $42.3B
2007: $47.1B
2008: $33.4B
2009: $26.9B
2010: $34.5B
2011: $34.8B
2012: $47.8B
2013: $71B
2014: $91.1B
2015: $93.4B
2016: $109.5B
2017: $109.3B
2018: $103.6B
2019: $128.2B
2020: $145.7B
2021: $149.2B
2022: $109B
2023: $157B
2024: $276.9B
This post was edited on 8/3/24 at 7:23 pm
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
12864 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

He is now sitting at nearly 50% Cash, 50% Stocks.


Is this really true? Yeah they own stock in public companies, but much of their assets are in businesses that they own all of. Are they really 50% cash when all that is taken into account?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133660 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 4:43 pm to
quote:

If not in preparation of a crash, what else could he hoarding that much cash for?
Cash has been earning 5%+ YTM for over 6 months, risk free, in zero coupon t-bills.

Almost half of my brokerage portfolios is currently in t-bills.

So holding cash while looking for something to buy is not a losing proposition like it was when cash was earning 0.1%.
This post was edited on 8/3/24 at 4:46 pm
Posted by Curb Your TDS
Member since Aug 2024
70 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

Is this really true? Yeah they own stock in public companies, but much of their assets are in businesses that they own all of. Are they really 50% cash when all that is taken into account?



It's true.
The Businesses that they own outright aren't included in their Stock Portfolio because they aren't Stocks.
But yes, his Investment Portfolio (stock investments vs cash) is now nearly 50% Cash.
His Stock Holdings are now around $295 Billion, Cash around $280 Billion.
He increased his Cash by nearly 90 Billion in 1 quarter.
He went from around 30 percent cash to 50 percent cash over the last quarter.
At best he thinks things are drastically overpriced, but I think he is expecting something far more ominous
The Market tends to react to his moves, especially big moves.
I imagine AAPL is going to sell off Monday & take the indexes with it.
The fact that Thursday & Friday were huge down days may help offset any more damage, but I wouldn't be surprised if this news helps trigger a Black Monday.
This post was edited on 8/3/24 at 5:16 pm
Posted by SuckerPunch
Member since Feb 2024
929 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 6:03 pm to
U mean a red monday?….more bleeding
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100639 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 7:37 pm to
Maybe it’s just selling underperforming stocks or cashing out profits and waiting till the election?
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4043 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 7:41 pm to
Off-loading risk due to election and Mideast uncertainty
Posted by Curb Your TDS
Member since Aug 2024
70 posts
Posted on 8/3/24 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Maybe it’s just selling underperforming stocks or cashing out profits and waiting till the election?


This isn't doing a little trimming,
He dumped nearly $100 Billion in stock in 1 quarter, and he was already sitting on an all time high cash position.
This has to be the biggest move he has ever made in such a short time.
He now has almost as much in cash as he does stocks.
I don't think he's ever been anywhere close to 50 percent cash before.
I guarantee there are fund managers who are having a wtf moment this weekend and are wondering what he sees that has him dumping stock at an unprecedented rate.
The market was already jittery, we may see panic on Monday.

This post was edited on 8/3/24 at 8:29 pm
Posted by CHGAR
Haile, LA
Member since Aug 2022
1253 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:04 am to
What's the point of buying dips if yo don't sell the rips.
Posted by Curb Your TDS
Member since Aug 2024
70 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 10:17 am to
quote:


What's the point of buying dips if yo don't sell the rips.


I agree.

When people are down they say "You haven't lost until you've sold" & "It's just paper losses".
Well, you also haven't won until you've sold & they're just paper gains until you sell.
Posted by Tigerfan14
Member since Jun 2014
1705 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 10:51 am to
quote:

What's the point of buying dips if yo don't sell the rips.


Compounding interest… investing is different than trading. A lower entry point is better than a higher entry point either way. Timing the market is essentially gambling.
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 10:58 am to
quote:

What's the point of buying dips if yo don't sell the rips.


It depends on if it's a short term play or a long term play. Everything I am doing is long term.
Posted by Curb Your TDS
Member since Aug 2024
70 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 11:12 am to
quote:

Compounding interest… investing is different than trading. A lower entry point is better than a higher entry point either way. Timing the market is essentially gambling.


Buffett is literally attempting to time the market by dumping $100 Billion and now being positioned with a portfolio that is half cash.
He doesn't plan on sitting at 50 percent cash forever.
He thinks things are too expensive now and is waiting to buy when they get cheaper, thus he is timing the market.
The biggest fortunes in the stock market are made by people that take profits in bubbles & redeploy that money in crashes.
Look at the previous post of how his cash hoard fluctuates over time.
That is because when things get expensive he sells and takes profits.
When things pull back he deploys that cash.
You know what you call that ? TIMING THE MARKET
This post was edited on 8/4/24 at 11:59 am
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