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Started By
Message
re: Southeast Severe Weather: January 8-9, 2024
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:04 am to CitizenK
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:04 am to CitizenK
quote:
Less rain here in Baton Rouge than a summer rainstorm. Very few limbs on the ground as well. Nothing burger as usual when models are involved
just because you came out unscathed, a lot of others didn't. maybe stop viewing it so self centered and look at the broad picture.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:13 am to BurningHeart
quote:
BurningHeart
Aren't you the idiot who watches the little shitty app on his phone and posts hourly updates about the auto-generated rain forecast only to get pissy when it changes?
You should keep that helmet.
This post was edited on 1/9/24 at 11:21 am
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:21 am to LegendInMyMind
Damn looks like this system ramped up pretty bad overnight
I went to sleep around 10pm and it wasn’t doing much. Hate to hear about the panhandle I just woke up and saw the news, been sick as a dog the past few days can’t break this fever
I went to sleep around 10pm and it wasn’t doing much. Hate to hear about the panhandle I just woke up and saw the news, been sick as a dog the past few days can’t break this fever
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:30 am to CitizenK
quote:
I have zero confidence in weather models.
Aka I’m a dumbass.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:45 am to Thracken13
quote:
just because you came out unscathed, a lot of others didn't. maybe stop viewing it so self centered and look at the broad picture.
Unfortunately the forecasters paint a really broad picture and their forecasts aren’t very specific and often they miss the mark.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 11:59 am to doubleb
quote:
Unfortunately the forecasters paint a really broad picture and their forecasts aren’t very specific and often they miss the mark.
This is where you employ the many tools provided to get a better understanding of the conditions that you need to prepare for in your location. It’s not hard. Most of it is contained in this very thread.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:02 pm to doubleb
well no fricking shite they do = thy do not sit around formulating specific forecasts for specific people/places. they setup a region to watch - they never say "everyone in the yellow shaded area will see bad weather' - they say pay attention, because the potential is there.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:14 pm to Thracken13
Get ready for the cold blast coming
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
ARCTIC BLAST
The Lower 48 forecast low temperature for Monday morning is only 9.6°F
88% of the Lower 48 area will be at/below 32°F
1/3 of the Lower 48 area will be at/below 0°F
242 Million population below freezing
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
ARCTIC BLAST
The Lower 48 forecast low temperature for Monday morning is only 9.6°F
88% of the Lower 48 area will be at/below 32°F
1/3 of the Lower 48 area will be at/below 0°F
242 Million population below freezing
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:28 pm to OU Guy
Another tornado touched down outside of Dothan in Cottonwood. Hit the town hard and had a confirmed fatality already. They have locked down the town performing search and rescue.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:28 pm to doubleb
quote:
Unfortunately the forecasters paint a really broad picture and their forecasts aren’t very specific and often they miss the mark.
Do you expect them to be able to name every single town that will be impacted by a severe thunderstorm and when it will happen? That would be impossible to do. They have to provide a general risk area. Some places in that area will get severe weather, some places will be spared from getting anything too bad.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:52 pm to Steve Rogers
quote:
Another tornado touched down outside of Dothan in Cottonwood. Hit the town hard and had a confirmed fatality already. They have locked down the town performing search and rescue.
That damn storm started on 30A before dawn and made it all the way to Dothan before breakfast like a tourist on their way back to Birmingham from the beach.
I think it ultimately made it to Georgia before the cell died out.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:55 pm to WHATASHAME
quote:
This is where you employ the many tools provided to get a better understanding of the conditions that you need to prepare for in your location. It’s not hard. Most of it is contained in this very thread.
Nah, asking people to take a bit of time to understand such things is entirely unreasonable. They need to be spoon fed exactly what will happen in their yard and the exact time it will happen. When a forecast verifies they always cry "no warning". When it busts (or doesn't reach its ceiling) they yell "overhyped". It is a story as old as weather forecasting itself.
And to toot my own horn, I noted the most likely failure mode on the first page:
quote:
The question is going to be moisture and how far inland adequate moisture is able to get. There will be plenty of shear (spin) and okay CAPE. This is one of those setups that the Mobile area hates.
The main change since the initial 15% on the extended outlook is the area has been expanded farther North. Looks to be messy ahead of the front, but any cell that can last will have rotation. Eventually, it should line out into what is looking like a nasty QLCS that would likely have embedded rotation.
I went on to pretty much nail how it would play out. That isn't some huge accomplishment, it was one of the more obvious forecasts (concerning failure modes) there is. Every discussion put out by the SPC noted it, and it is why they stuck with the Enhanced when a lot of people were crying for a Mod upgrade.
This post was edited on 1/9/24 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
happy to spout bullshite
This post was edited on 1/9/24 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:09 pm to deltaland
quote:
Damn looks like this system ramped up pretty bad overnight
Basically what happened is exactly what we were told was likely to happen Delta
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:13 pm to doubleb
There are currently 4 active tornado warnings in GA right now, exactly in the area predicted yesterday in OP. The linked one in OP autoupdated for today, but even the one yesterday showed exactly where these storms are right now.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:13 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Nah, asking people to take a bit of time to understand such things is entirely unreasonable. They need to be spoon fed exactly what will happen in their yard and the exact time it will happen. When a forecast verifies they always cry "no warning". When it busts (or doesn't reach its ceiling) they yell "overhyped". It is a story as old as weather forecasting itself.
And when this stuff happens everyone blames the industry and what frustrates me is the industry generally just takes it
Even Spann will lament how so many people can't read maps and don't receive the messaging they work so hard to put out but then will simply say the industry has to get better
There's always room for improvement but no, some people are just too stupid for their own good and you can't save them from it
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:14 pm to LegendInMyMind
Some huge supercells way out in the Atlantic past Myrtle Beach and Charleston.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:14 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Aren't you the idiot who watches the little shitty app on his phone and posts hourly updates about the auto-generated rain forecast only to get pissy when it changes?
You should keep that helmet.
Uhh...no that's actually not me.
You can take back my helmet.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:15 pm to BurningHeart
quote:
Uhh...no that's actually not me.
You did exactly that yesterday.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 1:16 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
LegendInMyMind et al
I sincerely appreciate you guys for taking the time to gather the information put it here and explain it. I have to be aware of weather conditions and be somewhat able to make plans to adjust quickly. Most of my preparation and planning is obtained right here.
This post was edited on 1/9/24 at 1:17 pm
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