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Started By
Message
This August downturn has cost me a comma
Posted on 8/17/23 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 8/17/23 at 10:56 pm
Really annoying
6
Posted on 8/17/23 at 11:06 pm to thelawnwranglers
Am I the only dumbass that thinks we are about to hit the recession? History has shown it takes time for rate hikes to work its way through the economy. It is coming, not dooms day but a recession.
I just don't see how people are saying we are headed back into a bullmarket. The inverted yield curve has been right going on 100 years now.
I just don't see how people are saying we are headed back into a bullmarket. The inverted yield curve has been right going on 100 years now.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 11:15 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Am I the only dumbass that thinks we are about to hit the recession?
Other than OXY all I'm holding right now are inverse ETFs, TSLA 225 puts (currently up 96% after two days) and SPY $440 puts expiring 12/15.
So no, you're not the only one.
*forgot about the BUD puts. It's just a fricking tease.
This post was edited on 8/17/23 at 11:44 pm
Posted on 8/17/23 at 11:47 pm to GREENHEAD22
I've been all doom and gloom expecting a recession since late 2022 and holding on to mostly cash thinking I could juuust wait out and buy at the bottom. Missed out on some nice gains as a result in the meantime. That said, if you look at where we were in 2019 and the chicanery that followed, we're long overdue and I still suspect the market is a house of cards propped up by a bunch of flimsy data.
Jobs numbers always come in strong but everyone's feeling poorer and anecdotal reports are it's counting multiple part time jobs.
Inflation purports to be down but no one feels any price relief.
Consumer debt is at an all time high but no one seems to care.
Americans' savings are close to all time lows.
Government deficit is insane and we're throwing away over half a trillion dollars a year on interest and not slowing down.
Student loan and commercial real estate crises are both coming to a head imminently.
There are so many bad things brewing yet somehow the markets are just chugging along. The whole thing is fabricated.
Jobs numbers always come in strong but everyone's feeling poorer and anecdotal reports are it's counting multiple part time jobs.
Inflation purports to be down but no one feels any price relief.
Consumer debt is at an all time high but no one seems to care.
Americans' savings are close to all time lows.
Government deficit is insane and we're throwing away over half a trillion dollars a year on interest and not slowing down.
Student loan and commercial real estate crises are both coming to a head imminently.
There are so many bad things brewing yet somehow the markets are just chugging along. The whole thing is fabricated.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:55 am to Thundercles
quote:
I've been all doom and gloom expecting a recession since late 2022
You went doom and gloom with an expected imminent recession AFTER the market took a massive shite early/mid 2022?
quote:Why would you?
Inflation purports to be down but no one feels any price relief.
quote:
Consumer debt is at an all time high but no one seems to care.
I don't think it is, in real terms.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:14 am to thelawnwranglers
SQQQ or other inverse ETFs during Aug/Sep.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 3:13 am to Thundercles
quote:
I've been all doom and gloom expecting a recession since late 2022 and holding on to mostly cash thinking I could just wait out and buy at the bottom. Missed out on some nice gains as a result in the meantime.
Yikes on holding mostly cash with the nice run the market has had close to a year. Buy at the bottom.
I predicted we would see a dip to around 3800 or 3900 come sept. That's looking like where we are headed. Inflation is still a problem no doubt especially the food and energy prices. Challenging times ahead but this economy is still holding up but need to see inflation pointed in the right direction by end of year. All the bears starting to show up again is kind of funny considering all the gains they missed by getting out last year. I have downsized some expecting this downturn but still 80% invested in market.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 7:09 am to thelawnwranglers
I don't think I'm back up yet from 12/31/2021 (with additional contributions, my balance is. But I wouldn't expect that I'm on the plus side of the yield from that date).
Posted on 8/18/23 at 7:11 am to thelawnwranglers
I cashed out about 50% late last year (mostly energy) and am happy I did. Those holdings went nowhere. Outside of big tech, most stocks have been stalled or declining for awhile.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 7:14 am to Drizzt
My new recession fear porn is China economy tanking and taking everyone with.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 7:40 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Am I the only dumbass that thinks we are about to hit the recession? History has shown it takes time for rate hikes to work its way through the economy. It is coming, not dooms day but a recession.
I just don't see how people are saying we are headed back into a bullmarket. The inverted yield curve has been right going on 100 years now.
I think you are on the mark, but historically, the real market pain has come about 9 months to a year after the interest rate peak.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 7:57 am to TigerHornII
Someone let me know if this link works to the 2023 Mid-Year Letter to Fundrise Investors. The premise of the article is that recessions and stock market dips have historically had long lag times to Fed interest rate hikes, and they present some solid data to support it. LINK I'm not sure if you have to be in Fundrise to read the link or not.
This post was edited on 8/18/23 at 7:59 am
Posted on 8/18/23 at 9:00 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Am I the only dumbass that thinks we are about to hit the recession?
Nope. I've been sitting on some cash waiting for the dip. Many last year like Jamie Dimon said we would be in a recession right now.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 9:14 am to leeman101
Let us know when the dip hits.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 9:33 am to FinleyStreet
quote:
Let us know when the dip hits.
Its here
Posted on 8/18/23 at 9:49 am to GREENHEAD22
S&P also has a 100 + year history of going up over time.
Look at the chart, upward trend and higher lows since it bottomed last October.
Good luck trying to time the market guys.
Look at the chart, upward trend and higher lows since it bottomed last October.
Good luck trying to time the market guys.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 10:29 am to SM1010
quote:
S&P also has a 100 + year history of going up over time.
Dumb. This first mutual fund available to the public was 1976.
quote:
Good luck trying to time the market guys.
You are timing the market
Posted on 8/18/23 at 11:02 am to thelawnwranglers
Subtle, I have(had) more than $999 brag.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 11:18 am to Thundercles
quote:
Americans' savings are close to all time lows.
This is far from true. I was on a conference call last week and four different banks said that account balances are still higher than pre-Covid.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 11:21 am to FLObserver
quote:
All the bears starting to show up again is kind of funny considering all the gains they missed by getting out last year. I have downsized some expecting this downturn but still 80% invested in market.
I did a fair amount of profit taking at the end of July. I put some back in but that turned out to be too soon. I have some target numbers for some stuff. I dumped Apple and Microsoft right before earnings reports.
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