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Started By
Message
Earnings are looking strong for a lot of companies
Posted on 4/18/23 at 7:31 am
Posted on 4/18/23 at 7:31 am
JNJ,LMT,JPM etc... All blow out earnings this Qtr. When will the increased Interest rates , recession start hitting? Is it now next year?
5
Posted on 4/18/23 at 7:39 am to FLObserver
Recession will hit when everyone stops talking about it and gives in to the markets.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 8:17 am to FLObserver
When the credit card bubble pops
Posted on 4/18/23 at 8:25 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
When the credit card bubble pops
credit card debt is lower in real terms over the past few years.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 8:52 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
credit card debt is lower in real terms over the past few years.
What's the difference between real terms and people reporting "consumer debt is at all time high"? I know nothing.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 9:27 am to Thundercles
Consumer income and net worth are also at all time highs. So debt/income or debt/net worth may not be as significant as the fear mongers want you to believe.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 9:27 am to FLObserver
Everyone has been predicting a recession is 'right around the corner' since May 2022. That was basically one year ago. There's always something that conveniently gets in the way to 'delay' the recession.
Go back and look at experts predictions over the past year. Hell, even people on this board. It went from late 2022, to early 2023, to fall 2023, to late 2023, and shite even now the economists got frustrated and just say 2024
It's always 6 months or 9 months from right now. Right now changes though with each passing week.
Go back and look at experts predictions over the past year. Hell, even people on this board. It went from late 2022, to early 2023, to fall 2023, to late 2023, and shite even now the economists got frustrated and just say 2024
It's always 6 months or 9 months from right now. Right now changes though with each passing week.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 10:08 am to skewbs
The media is pushing the recession agenda hard. If you can’t see the reason, you’re blind.
Big recession 2023 and into early 2024. Story line is that Sleepy Joe pulls us out of major recession and has something to run on for re-election.
Big recession 2023 and into early 2024. Story line is that Sleepy Joe pulls us out of major recession and has something to run on for re-election.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 11:27 am to skewbs
quote:
Everyone has been predicting a recession is 'right around the corner' since May 2022
That was my point. I believe it was predicted as early as end of 2021. Now its 2024
Posted on 4/18/23 at 11:40 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
credit card debt is lower in real terms over the past few years.
Really? I was just spit balling. With the high prices, I assumed more folks were buy now pay later.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 11:43 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
credit card debt is lower in real terms over the past few years.
I don't see how you reach that conclusion.
Nominal debt by year (average in billions): FRED - Credit card debt
2014 - $611
2015 - $640
2016 - $688
2017 - $731
2018 - $789
2019 - $825
2020 - $784
2021 - $763
2022 - $880
2023 (week ending April 5) - $976
Real debt by year (average in billions, based on FY2012 USD): Inflation calculator
2014 - $592
2015 - $619
2016 - $658
2017 - $684
2018 - $721
2019 - $740
2020 - $695
2021 - $646
2022 - $690
2023 (week ending April 5) - $742
Posted on 4/18/23 at 11:45 am to Shepherd88
quote:
Consumer income and net worth are also at all time highs.
FRED - Real Wages Real wages have been pretty much stagnant since Q4 2021.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 11:47 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
credit card debt is lower in real terms over the past few years.
quote:
credit card debt is lower in real terms over the past few years.
The levels don't matter, its the fact that its been going up and that is what has been driving the continued spending by pumping money into the economy, it has to eventually flatten out or drop and that will reduce spending.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 11:51 am to Im4datigers
quote:
The media is pushing the recession agenda hard. If you can’t see the reason, you’re blind.
Big recession 2023 and into early 2024. Story line is that Sleepy Joe pulls us out of major recession and has something to run on for re-election.
JFC
If they weren't pushing a recession, it would be because they are defending a democratic admin, but since they are pushing it, its so they can claim credit for it later?
Posted on 4/18/23 at 12:05 pm to barry
Yep. People always have to have their simpleton political stuff no matter what the subject/data
Posted on 4/18/23 at 12:27 pm to Bard
Cumulative wages are up 20% since 2020. It may be disproportionate to classes but that’s how the cookie crumbles.
Josh Brown has a post going into this.
Josh Brown has a post going into this.
This post was edited on 4/18/23 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 4/18/23 at 1:14 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
Cumulative wages are up 20% since 2020. It may be disproportionate to classes
I have to wonder. I know low-end wages shot up like a rocket in the wake of COVID to entice workers to come back to the work force, no idea what it looks(ed) on the upper end.
quote:
Josh Brown has a post going into this.
Got a link? I would enjoy reading up on it a bit more (and my Google-Fu is apparently lacking).
This post was edited on 4/18/23 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 4/18/23 at 3:26 pm to Shepherd88
Thanks! 
After tinkering with various charts and numbers, I think they are using 1982-1984 CPI Adjusted numbers (and that's a little outside of my knowledge base).
After tinkering with various charts and numbers, I think they are using 1982-1984 CPI Adjusted numbers (and that's a little outside of my knowledge base).
This post was edited on 4/18/23 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 4/18/23 at 4:14 pm to skewbs
quote:I Love Bama is probably in a corner melting somewhere.
Everyone has been predicting a recession is 'right around the corner' since May 2022. That was basically one year ago. There's always something that conveniently gets in the way to 'delay' the recession.
Go back and look at experts predictions over the past year. Hell, even people on this board. It went from late 2022, to early 2023, to fall 2023, to late 2023, and shite even now the economists got frustrated and just say 2024
May need to send a welfare checkup to his house.
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