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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:10 pm to
Posted by CobraCommander83
Member since Feb 2017
11601 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:10 pm to
What exactly is the ICON model? Showing landfall near Tampa than going across Florida and making a 2nd landfall in SC.
Posted by jpbTiger
Tampa FL
Member since Dec 2007
4984 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:12 pm to
I believe they have their own power plant, and it looks like the storm will be past (with the exception of a rain) but Thursday afternoon. I’m betting they’ll open by Saturday or Sunday
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
14134 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:15 pm to
quote:

From a well-respected tropical meteorologist,


Name names.


Has to be zack fradella.
Posted by ForLSU56
Rapides Parish
Member since Feb 2015
5582 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:17 pm to
quote:

between 5 and 10 feet (1.5 and 3 meters) above normal tide conditions


If it hits during normal high tide time, it could get even uglier.
Posted by Sput
Member since Mar 2020
8179 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:17 pm to
quote:

Does everything at Disney run on generators? What if employees can’t get there??




I know a man not scared to go alone
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6163 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

Does everything at Disney run on generators?


Disney has its own power plant. With that said, they will most likely be closed Thursday, Friday and possible over the weekend. They will have to damage assess every single piece of the parks before anyone goes in.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
22384 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

What exactly is the ICON model?


Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
22384 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:21 pm to
quote:

They will have to damage assess every single piece of the parks before anyone goes in.



Yeah, you ain't getting on Expedition Everest until their engineers inspect it all.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
43155 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:21 pm to
Posted by CobraCommander83
Member since Feb 2017
11601 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:22 pm to
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
22384 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:24 pm to
The HMON (Jamaican Model) wants to destroy Tampa.

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
43155 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:24 pm to
rds, Duke, Legend, etc. does it look like Ian has a little bit of dry air that has worked in near its center? Looks like one side of the center lacks deep convection.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 6:24 pm
Posted by MasterAbe1
Member since Oct 2016
5108 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:24 pm to
Gf works at Disney and they still haven’t said anything about shutting down or evacuating
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
25729 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:26 pm to
Sunset convection



...
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35710 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:26 pm to
Might have taken in a little of the dry stuff. Theres some around.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6163 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

Gf works at Disney and they still haven’t said anything about shutting down or evacuating


They won’t evacuate. The resorts are built to withstand cat 3 or 4, but they will shut down the parks with barely any notice.
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42316 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:28 pm to
The local news ppl are so bored and didn’t get a Hurricane this season that they are just covering Ian as if it’s coming to Louisiana. It’s quite pathetic.


Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55499 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

rds, Duke, Legend, etc. does it look like Ian has a little bit of dry air that has worked in near its center? Looks like one side of the center lacks deep convection.

I don't think so. Recon found a spiral band around the eye around a half hour ago. It has been firing convection like that all day and on IR it makes it look like the eye isn't closed.

ETA: I'd go with Duke's answer.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 6:30 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
43155 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:30 pm to
quote:

I don't think so. Recon found a spiral band around the eye around a half hour ago. It has been firing convection like that all day and on IR it makes it look like the eye isn't closed.

Yeah, and looking at the low quality communist radar there looks to be convection all around the center. Just looked like deep convection was lacking on the IR. I guess we’ll see what recon shows.

Like Duke said, maybe there’s a bit of dry air. Probably not enough to hamper it much.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 6:32 pm
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35710 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 6:31 pm to
To be fair. IDK.

The dropsondes didnt look especially dry on thay side and the wind isnt especially low on the NW side on that first pass.
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