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re: Bayesian Statistics and the Conversion Attempt
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:38 pm to The Real Drooby
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:38 pm to The Real Drooby
quote:
I felt like we should have gone for 2 with Daniels running it in
FSU hadn’t stopped him all day
They couldn't tackle him one on one for sure. Naked bootleg would have won the game.
0
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:40 pm to MidCityTiger
If CBK feels like he as a 2 pt. conversion play in his pocket that he is very confident about then you go for two. That changes the percentages in your favor.
If CBK feels like he did not have a 2 pt. conversion play that he felt confident about then you kick the extra point.
He obviously felt like kicking the extra point was the right thing to do.
If CBK feels like he did not have a 2 pt. conversion play that he felt confident about then you kick the extra point.
He obviously felt like kicking the extra point was the right thing to do.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:49 pm to 0x15E
I think anyone that had a feel for that game would have went for two. We were lucky to be in it and I don't care what anyone says we had a much better chance of JD scrambling and getting into the endzone from a couple yards out then making the pat and then winning the overtime. Especially with how our special teams played and the fact we are breaking in a new field goal kicker.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:05 pm to TxTiger758
quote:
Why go for 2 on the first touchdown? If you don't make it you are down 8 and then to tie it you MUST make a 2 point conversion just to tie
Going for two down 14
quote:
There is a classic problem in football analytics that was solved many years ago. When trailing by 14 points late in the game, it is almost always correct to go for two after your first touchdown. The logic follows that if you convert the two-point conversion, you will be able to win with a simple extra point on the second touchdown, and if you fail, you will still be able to tie with a two-point conversion on that second TD.
Going for 2 down 8 points: Why NFL teams keep doing it, and why analytics backs them up
quote:
An NFL team is down by 14 points in the fourth quarter, and it scores a touchdown to pull within 8. The consensus says the team should kick the extra point, right? Not so fast.
In analytics circles, attempting a 2-point conversion when down 8 points late in the game has long been discussed as a slam-dunk decision that NFL coaches should make. Recently, it has become a choice that some coaches actually do make.
Between 2000 and 2017, there were only two instances in which a team was down 14 points, scored a touchdown to cut the deficit to 8 and went for 2 on purpose (excluding aborted PAT attempts). And one was in a snowstorm, when kicking can be adventurous. Since the start of 2018, it has happened 12 times, including the Colts' attempt on Saturday.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:15 pm to Penrod
quote:I just think that's a really old way of thinking. LSU had FSU on their heels and we had all the momentum. They could have let Daniels sit back in the pocket and run or throw. He had been slippery all night.
Nope. Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT. But, like you, I would not have criticized BK had he gone for two and lost.
Why do people think we had the momentum going into overtime? That's not a thing, the game basically starts over again. Do you think we continue going uptempo at that point now that time wasn't urgent? We rarely stopped them all game on 3rd downs and our kicking game was horrendous.
There is no way real in game analytics would have heavily favored going for a PAT and winning in OT compared to going for 2 when you currently had all the momentum. Wish we had a system that could analysis in game trends and put out a real assessment of a play like that.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:17 pm to CalTiger53
quote:Nope. You couldn't be worse than the shitshow that transpired after a BLOCKED EXTRA POINT. It would have actually took stones to go for 2 and many with sense would have respected that.
Come on man, can you imagine if he went for 2 and missed what this place would have been like?
Stop this nonsense.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:19 pm to Willie Stroker
quote:You don't think Daniels could have gotten that at that point in time?
Why would you think that?
Wasn’t it also true we probably get the extra point?
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:33 pm to MidCityTiger
From a purely statistical perspective, the right answer is to go for the two point conversion on the previous touchdown. Then, you can either 2 point to tie it post the final touchdown or kick the PAT to win.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:33 pm to MidCityTiger
I agree that it was a pretty even decision, but I would have gone for 2. In OT, often the games is decided by a mistake. Maybe an lineman misses an assignment and the QB gets sacked. Maybe a DB misses an assignment and gives up an easy TD. Maybe somebody does something stupid. We were playing in our first game, with new systems, and a lot of new players, and they were a rather senior laden team that has been running the same system for years with a game under their belt. So, we were probably more likely to make a stupid error at that point. They might have had some more trick plays ready as well. So, I think the odds of the 2-pointer while we have momentum was the better call. Taking the kick wasn't a bad call though.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:44 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
The correct call was to go for 2 on the first touchdown scored while down 14.
Only in your head.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:57 pm to mdomingue
quote:
Only in your head.
Or in the head of NFL coaches and analytics experts.
You should watch some football. It's a fun game.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 4:31 pm to GumboPot
quote:
If CBK feels like he as a 2 pt. conversion play in his pocket that he is very confident about then you go for two. That changes the percentages in your favor.
Perhaps we used our two point play and scored that last td with it
Posted on 9/9/22 at 5:45 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
Or in the head of NFL coaches and analytics experts.
Link?
quote:
You should watch some football. It's a fun game.
I'll give it a try.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 10:38 pm to mdomingue
I’ve posted links in this thread already.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 11:05 pm to Datbayoubengal
quote:
You don't think Daniels could have gotten that at that point in time?
Your response sounds like you prefer belief over probabilities
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