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re: Will S&P hit 2700 over next 9 months?
Posted on 6/17/22 at 8:33 am to Chad504boy
Posted on 6/17/22 at 8:33 am to Chad504boy
That’s too low IMO. Made my first buy back in yesterday, next one 3500, 3300, 3100. That’s the plan for now. Selling any of that on a rip to close the gaps up around 4000
0
Posted on 6/17/22 at 10:00 am to Chad504boy
Once it hits 3000 I'm all in! Won't have anything left to put in, so I hope it doesn't go there for all kinds of reasons.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 10:11 am to Realityintheface
quote:
I would agree we are in or will have a recession soon, but 2700 is too low. S&P already close to 25% down. The average bear is around 34% down if I remember the figure right. That’s roughly 3150.
I prefer to look at markets in terms of P/E ratio instead of % of peak, you don't really know how overvalued the markets were in comparison to other bull markets. I think the S&P goes to at least 16 P/E ratio and we are sitting at roughly 18.5 right now.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 10:29 am to barry
quote:
I prefer to look at markets in terms of P/E ratio instead of % of peak, you don't really know how overvalued the markets were in comparison to other bull markets. I think the S&P goes to at least 16 P/E ratio and we are sitting at roughly 18.5 right now.
so what number is 16 p/e ratio?
Posted on 6/17/22 at 10:55 am to Chad504boy
quote:
I’m thinking that’s my buy in target. I know nothing about shite.
Member that time you got in FB super cheap? I member.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 11:08 am to Chad504boy
quote:
Will S&P hit 2700 over next 9 months?
Ultimately, it will. Maybe not within next 9 months…
This post was edited on 6/17/22 at 11:18 am
Posted on 6/17/22 at 11:14 am to Cdawg
quote:
Member that time you got in FB super cheap? I member.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 12:07 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
so what number is 16 p/e ratio?
Based on current 2022 earnings estimates, S&P would be roughly:
16 P/E = 3,580
15 P/E = 3,360
Unless earnings estimates start getting downward revisions after Q2 reports, the index is close to value buy zones.
Looking at 2023E, the index is now at ~15 P/E.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 12:29 pm to JimMorrison
quote:
16 P/E = 3,580
So we are almost there. We touched 3,640 yesterday.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 12:49 pm to Chad504boy
lol 2700 and i'm buying millions on margin.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 12:58 pm to Chad504boy
3100'ish
Back up the truck if lower.
Back up the truck if lower.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 1:03 pm to skewbs
I predicted this area would be the bottom for 2022. We'll see how it goes
Posted on 6/17/22 at 1:19 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I can't see us falling another 25+%. That would put us almost on par with 08-09 when the global financial system was about to collapse.
In fairness, we were down 20+% and thought the worst was over after Bear Stearns collapsed - then shite hit the fan.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 8:02 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
I can't see us falling another 25+%. That would put us almost on par with 08-09 when the global financial system was about to collapse.
It's not outrageous to think this could be worse. We're coming out of a decade of unprecedented fed policy to prop up asset prices and appease the public, and inflation that many thought was impossible today.
Fed rates aren't even high historically speaking and we're seeing unprecedented levels of selling.
Don't underestimate how painful this could be.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:27 am to rintintin
quote:
It's not outrageous to think this could be worse. We're coming out of a decade of unprecedented fed policy to prop up asset prices and appease the public, and inflation that many thought was impossible today.
Fed rates aren't even high historically speaking and we're seeing unprecedented levels of selling.
Don't underestimate how painful this could be.
My man!
13 years of the gov’t artificially inflating the stock market. People too busy trying to find the next bubble in the market when the real bubble IS the market. We are one geopolitical event away from this turning into a real shitshow.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 1:45 pm to JimMorrison
quote:
Unless earnings estimates start getting downward revisions after Q2 reports, the index is close to value buy zones
This is inevitable IMO. The market hasn't priced in how inflation will affect earnings. Earnings will be adjusted downwards.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 2:35 pm to rintintin
I think a full on collapse is coming. No sector is safe.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 4:02 pm to TrueTiger07
Consumer Staples (you gotta eat, wash clothes, etc)
Utilities (you gotta have water, electricity)
Oil used to be like this but Covid work at home showed this isn’t the case anymore. Still highly needed though and in short supply.
Utilities (you gotta have water, electricity)
Oil used to be like this but Covid work at home showed this isn’t the case anymore. Still highly needed though and in short supply.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 4:32 pm to Chad504boy
Yes
Posted on 6/19/22 at 4:22 pm to fallguy_1978
Burry disagrees
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