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Reverse Repo - Great Explanation

Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:19 am
Posted by GhostOfFreedom
Member since Jan 2021
12925 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:19 am
Reverse Repos Hit 2 Trillion Yesterday. Its Time for You to Understand Them?? Debunked (self.Superstonk)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ux6cn2/reverse_repos_hit_2_trillion_yesterday_its_time/

submitted 13 hours ago * by Dan_Bren?? Deep Options Guy ??82& 45 more

Good evening Apes,

In honor of Reverse Repos breaking the $2 trillion barrier, and my wife's boyfriend going on vacation, I think it's time we all make the conscious effort to understand the RRP Market a little better. Let's go through a couple basic definitions:

RRP - Reverse Repurchase Agreement - The NY Fed's Trading Desk sells treasury securities to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to buy it back at a specified price (Currently offering 0.8%) at a specified time (usually very short-term like overnight.)

Who are these Eligible Counterparties? - First you've got 25 Primary Dealers (BofA Securities, Citigroup, Credit Suisse etc.). Then you've got RRP Counterparties (Original I know.) This list includes 15 Banks, 15 Government Sponsored Entities, and 104 Money Market Funds. In total 159 eligible counterparties.

Each of these counterparties are able to request to receive up to $160 billion.

Now I know what you're thinking, $160 billion x 159 counterparties = $25.44 Trillion

This would be the theoretical max. However, it's also limited by the amount of treasury securities in the SOMA.

SOMA - System Open Market Account - This is the NY Fed's Trading Desk's account for conduction open market operations under the direction of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee.)

So how much is in the SOMA account Dan? Well as of May 18, 2022 there's $5.682 Trillion.

Now that we've covered the basics...What's really going on here?

The process of RRP is the Fed's way of pushing reserve assets into the system.

Why do we need reserve assets in the system?

In the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis the Basel III Accord was formed which instituted an international minimum capital requirement for banks. Banks must maintain 8% capital in relation to its risk-weighted assets. This capital can be in the form of cash or treasury securities. I think you see where I'm going with this.

The RRP market helps these counterparties meet their capital adequacy requirements. Some wrinkly apes have pointed out it may not be for this purpose.

Here's where things get weird:

When the counterparties receive their treasury securities from the NY fed, they are immediately added to their balance sheet.

Makes sense. And so they leave the NY Fed's balance sheet until they get it back right? Nope.

Because it's a short-term agreement to be repurchased it NEVER LEAVES THE FEDS BALANCE SHEET.

It's kind of like double counting the money in the system and then using that double money to meet your reserve requirements to keep everyone safe.

Let's look into the rapid rate of increase in these RRPs

This Chart was a snapshot taken Aug 2, 2021

Prior to 2014 these transactions were miniscule. Now let's add in the last 9 months.

Snapshot taken May 24, 2022

Feel free to play around with the graph here.

Am I getting through here? Pumping money into the system to fudge reserve requirements, counting it twice on the books and it increasing at a historically unprecedented rate. Yet, no one outside of this community seems to notice or care.

I want to open this up for discussion here and I'll be making edits to the post. If you made it this far, you're now a wrinkly ape when it comes to RRPs! Tell a friend about it. It's the best way to educate the public and help you better understand. u/danbren out.

Edit: Sorry to the early gang. Had to make a correction to the title. RRPs hitting 2 million isn't much of a headline.

Edit 2: Can an ape with more wrinkles than me clarify whether Treasury Bills, Treasury Notes/Bonds, Treasury Floating Rate Notes, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities in the SOMA account should all be counted toward "treasury securities available for use in RRP operations." I had included them all in my calculation.

Edit 3: Appreciate the overwhelming support. I love seeing so much conversation and discussion around the topic. Thanks to everyone who provided insightful edits and corrections.

-----------------
There were a lot of questions and attempts to answer in the last reverse repo thread. This helped me out. - GhostOfFreedom

Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
43177 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:23 am to
quote:

When the counterparties receive their treasury securities from the NY fed, they are immediately added to their balance sheet.

Makes sense. And so they leave the NY Fed's balance sheet until they get it back right? Nope.

Because it's a short-term agreement to be repurchased it NEVER LEAVES THE FEDS BALANCE SHEET.

It's kind of like double counting the money in the system and then using that double money to meet your reserve requirements to keep everyone safe.



This sounds like a Bernie Madoff caliber scheme. Is this for real?
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
20449 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:28 am to
quote:

my wife's boyfriend going on vacation
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52070 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:31 am to
So in otherwords, it's funny money bullshite.


Got it
Posted by the_truman_shitshow
Member since Aug 2021
2755 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:33 am to
Here's an explanation in a single sentence:

Kicking the can down the road is now at the edge of the world.
Posted by ninthward
Boston, MA
Member since May 2007
21270 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:34 am to
I still need this explained to me like I'm 5. It's just not sinking in. I am a smooth brain ape.
Posted by tgerb8
Huntsvegas
Member since Aug 2007
6364 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:35 am to
quote:

I think you see where I'm going with this.


I think you give me too much credit.
Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
21664 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:35 am to
quote:

This sounds like a Bernie Madoff caliber scheme. Is this for real?




Yes it is for real. As far as Bernie goes, if he were the Treasury Secretary and did what he did he would have been thought of as brilliant. The bulk of the US monetary system and Social Security is nothing more than a giant Ponzi scheme at this point.
Posted by the_truman_shitshow
Member since Aug 2021
2755 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:36 am to

Since 2008, quantitative easing or printing money out of thin air is the equivalent of borrowing from the future to pay current debt obligations. It's gotten to a point where we have essentially tapped out our future reserves.
Posted by ninthward
Boston, MA
Member since May 2007
21270 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:38 am to
thanks! and so now what? banks forclose on 10m properties and loans?
Posted by the_truman_shitshow
Member since Aug 2021
2755 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:41 am to
Raise interest rates by over 20% to truly stop inflation (pull a Volcker) and crash the global markets which will wipe out 30% of the wealth on the planet

or

Print again and cause a Weimar Rebuplicesque hyperinflationary economy.

No options left.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 10:42 am
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
19576 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:03 am to
Truman SHitshow is right.

We're about to see Weimar Republic-type inflation. It has nothing to do with Biden or the Democrats. Both parties did this to us.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 11:04 am
Posted by deathvalleytiger10
Member since Sep 2009
8251 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:08 am to
I have read numerous explanations on Reverse Repo's, yet I have not read a single explanation about what the consequences are of this action and why it matters.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
132599 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:16 am to
quote:

We're about to see Weimar Republic-type inflation. It has nothing to do with Biden or the Democrats. Both parties did this to us.




IDK about Weimar level inflation but food price increases 30-40% between August and the end of November is easily predictable. Farmers need to cover the cost of fertilizer (increased 40%) they paid for in the spring and the fuel they will use to maintain and harvest the food during the late summer early fall. Those costs will be reflected on the grocery store shelves between August and November.

Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
132599 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:44 am to
quote:

I have read numerous explanations on Reverse Repo's, yet I have not read a single explanation about what the consequences are of this action and why it matters.




I think the simple explanation is this.

The Federal Reserve loans to big banks mentioned in the OP. The big banks loan that money to smaller banks that deal with real people on the street. When the smaller banks stop borrowing from the larger banks the larger banks need somewhere to park their loaned Federal Reserve dollars to make money so they park it in Treasury Bonds via the Federal Reserve (that they bought from the Treasury on the open bond market...i.e., money printing) to make their 0.8% (APR) short term.

High reverse repurchase agreement (reverse repo) levels like we are seeing can be an indication of two things, too much Federal Reserve loans to big banks and/or people on the street slowing down spending/borrowing. If it's more of the latter then it's a sign we are in recessionary behavior.

Last quarter we printed a negative GDP. If we print a negative GDP next quarter it will be confirmed we are in a recession.

Guess what? We are probably in a recession.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 11:46 am
Posted by WhiskeyThrottle
Weatherford Tx
Member since Nov 2017
6438 posts
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:52 am to
I have about 300 lbs of beer grain. Looking like I'm sitting on a fortune.
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