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Started By
Message
New Housing Sales Down 16%
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:10 am
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:10 am
LINK
Been delaying real estate purchase for quite a while. It may FINALLY be time to start looking around again.
quote:
April New Home Sales: -16.6% M/M to 591K vs 750K expected and 709K prior (revised from 763K).
On Y/Y basis, new home sales dropped 26.9% in April.
Median sales prices of new houses sold in April 2022 was $450.6K, up from $436.7K in March. The average sales price of $570.3K climbed from $523.9K in the prior month.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 444K, representing a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate vs. the 6.4 months of supply in March.
Been delaying real estate purchase for quite a while. It may FINALLY be time to start looking around again.
10
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:13 am to Aubie Spr96
We are currently amassing a large amount of cash in the hopes the bubble bursts and we can scoop up a vacation house. Fingers crossed.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:13 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Been delaying real estate purchase for quite a while. It may FINALLY be time to start looking around again.
quote:
Median sales prices of new houses sold in April 2022 was $450.6K, up from $436.7K in March.
A slow down is still a far cry from a reversal in home prices.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:16 am to slackster
quote:
A slow down is still a far cry from a reversal in home prices.
With demand obviously falling, prices will surely follow.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:18 am to slackster
My wife and I are constantly on the hunt for a good deal and therefore we get updates from Zillow, Redfin and Trulia daily....
Starting about 2 weeks ago, we started seeing LOTS of price reductions across the market that hasn't existed for years.
Housing market is cooling due to interest rates; as soon as the supply meets demand, the prices will probably tumble off the cliff.
Starting about 2 weeks ago, we started seeing LOTS of price reductions across the market that hasn't existed for years.
Housing market is cooling due to interest rates; as soon as the supply meets demand, the prices will probably tumble off the cliff.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:20 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:True but do not expect prices to fall below 10%. Expect inventory to increase and buying options to increase, and as with each transaction, a seller's needs vary. So you may get a deal etc. The big deal here is to expect more inventory.
With demand obviously falling, prices will surely follow.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:23 am to Aubie Spr96
How is the drop in sales/demand going to affect building material prices? I follow a lumber index that has plummeted the past 2 weeks but not sure about everything else. Doing a big reno soon.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:24 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Been delaying real estate purchase for quite a while. It may FINALLY be time to start looking around again.
Correction may be coming more quickly than we anticipated. Which is why I was so surprised there were so many coming to this board trying to buy or build at the absolute worst time the market has had in the past 10+ years.
This post was edited on 5/24/22 at 10:07 am
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:25 am to slackster
quote:
A slow down is still a far cry from a reversal in home prices.
Sure, it's not a guarantee of reversal in prices, but in most scenarios where there will be a reversal of prices, you'll see a slow down right, correct?
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:26 am to ninthward
quote:
Expect inventory to increase and buying options to increase
quote:
The big deal here is to expect more inventory.
Isn't the entire argument/justification for the insane prices primarily based in a lack of inventory?
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:36 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Sure, it's not a guarantee of reversal in prices, but in most scenarios where there will be a reversal of prices, you'll see a slow down right, correct?
I think it depends on how high rates go. If we start seeing 7-9% mortgage rates I don't think the low inventory is going to matter as much.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:51 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
representing a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate vs. the 6.4 months of supply in March.
In hot markets the supply currently is 3-4 weeks.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:27 am to Aubie Spr96
I've noticed looking on zillow recently home prices are being cut a bit in multiple listings now and also the "zestimates" are almost all well above asking prices. First time I've seen this in well over a year.
I hope it continues to slow down, was just inevitable with the rate hikes.
I hope it continues to slow down, was just inevitable with the rate hikes.
This post was edited on 5/24/22 at 10:28 am
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:30 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
I think it depends on how high rates go. If we start seeing 7-9% mortgage rates I don't think the low inventory is going to matter as much.
will be interesting, I personally dont see rates hitting 8-9% this year, but could see 7%.
Feel like mortgage lenders got WAY WAY ahead of the fed rate hike since it went from like 3% to 5.25% from end of last year to now when the fed rate went from 0.25% to 1% over 2 months in Mar-May
Hopefully even if they raise the FED rate to 2% coming up over the summer w edont see too much of a jump in mortgage rates considering how priced in they already went with the jump from 3%-5.25%
This post was edited on 5/24/22 at 10:32 am
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:33 am to SlowFlowPro
What do yall think about this guy?
"A.J. Steigman sold more houses in Atlanta last year than any other broker — despite the fact that he lives in Florida and has no full-time staff.
He's able to sell residential properties from thousands of miles away thanks to a $20,000 computer and a proprietary software system called "Steignet" that he launched at the University of Pennsylvania in 2018.
The system's algorithms scan large data sets to identify undervalued single-family homes before the human competition. Its name is a reference to the Terminator's villainous artificial intelligence network "Skynet," as The Wall Street Journal first reported."
LINK
"A.J. Steigman sold more houses in Atlanta last year than any other broker — despite the fact that he lives in Florida and has no full-time staff.
He's able to sell residential properties from thousands of miles away thanks to a $20,000 computer and a proprietary software system called "Steignet" that he launched at the University of Pennsylvania in 2018.
The system's algorithms scan large data sets to identify undervalued single-family homes before the human competition. Its name is a reference to the Terminator's villainous artificial intelligence network "Skynet," as The Wall Street Journal first reported."
LINK
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:38 am to Aubie Spr96
As someone keeping my eye out for another place, anecdotally, def seeing the change in the market.
Stuff in Houston staying on market longer and price reductions starting to happen over the past few weeks when previously, there was nothing of substance longer than a day or two.
Stuff in Houston staying on market longer and price reductions starting to happen over the past few weeks when previously, there was nothing of substance longer than a day or two.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:41 am to slackster
quote:
A slow down is still a far cry from a reversal in home prices.
But its coming. I kept seeing on here but low inventory but low inventory.
The quality of the inventory comes into play. Yes there is still low inventory but if its shite then it won't sell.
The sellers party is over.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:44 am to Lsut81
quote:
As someone keeping my eye out for another place, anecdotally, def seeing the change in the market.
Right there with you. The wind has clearly changed in the last 4-6 weeks.
With that said, the change is at the higher end price points that I keep up with where I am (550-800). The lower range (350-550) haven't slowed as noticeably.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:04 am to Ballstein32
quote:
What do yall think about this guy?
"A.J. Steigman sold more houses in Atlanta last year than any other broker — despite the fact that he lives in Florida and has no full-time staff.
He's able to sell residential properties from thousands of miles away thanks to a $20,000 computer and a proprietary software system called "Steignet" that he launched at the University of Pennsylvania in 2018.
The system's algorithms scan large data sets to identify undervalued single-family homes before the human competition. Its name is a reference to the Terminator's villainous artificial intelligence network "Skynet," as The Wall Street Journal first reported."
Sounds like a guy that's going to be broke in the matter of 2-3 years.
He'll then probably complain that they system is corrupt and not his shitty little algorithm.
Hope he's doing something smart with his profits.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:24 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
A slow down is still a far cry from a reversal in home prices.
Sure, it's not a guarantee of reversal in prices, but in most scenarios where there will be a reversal of prices, you'll see a slow down
Another recent indication that people have generally ignored was the layoffs in the mortgage industry
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