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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:31 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:31 pm to CitizenK
Interesting discussion with a friend who I haven't been in contact with for a year. His company had started a business in Ukraine to revive old stripper wells for oil. The technology used was developed by the former head of a Soviet space design bureau who immigrated to the US in 1991. The 2014 invasion screwed them bigtime.
He is well aware of how the money for "Ukraine" is almost all going to revive US defense manufacturing plants gutted over the last 35 years by Democrat administrations.
He is well aware of how the money for "Ukraine" is almost all going to revive US defense manufacturing plants gutted over the last 35 years by Democrat administrations.
1
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:46 pm to CitizenK
quote:
then-Secretary of State James Baker suggested that in exchange for cooperation on Germany, U.S. could make “iron-clad guarantees” that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:47 pm to VolSquatch
Regarding EAST GERMANY That was the topic.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:50 pm to CitizenK
Sure it was, sport
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:57 pm to VolSquatch
FWIW
At the end of the day nothing was written nor signed so it's basically impossible to actually say what if anything was actually agreed to and if any promise was broken. As a I stated early no formal agreement exists
ETA but it is SUPER easy to find whatever "evidence" you want to support whatever outcome you want. I.E. you can make it look like NATO broke a promise or that no such promise was made.
quote:
The controversy in Russia regarding the legitimacy of eastward NATO expansion relates to the aftermath of the Revolutions of 1989, when the fall of Soviet-allied communist states to opposition parties brought European spheres of influence into question. U.S. documents claim that agreement on non-expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe took place orally[1] and the alliance violated it with its expansion[1][2][3][4] while the leaders of the alliance claim that no such promise was made[5] and that such a decision could only be made in writing.[6][7] Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, who participated in the 1990 negotiations, subsequently spoke out about the existence of a "guarantee of non-expansion of NATO to the east" inconsistently, confirming its existence in some interviews[8][9] and refuting in others.[10][11] Among academic researchers, opinions on the existence or absence of a non-extension agreement also differ
At the end of the day nothing was written nor signed so it's basically impossible to actually say what if anything was actually agreed to and if any promise was broken. As a I stated early no formal agreement exists
ETA but it is SUPER easy to find whatever "evidence" you want to support whatever outcome you want. I.E. you can make it look like NATO broke a promise or that no such promise was made.
This post was edited on 5/7/24 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:00 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.
Russian ultranationalists lauded the start of Putin's fifth term as a historic event and explicitly approved of the autocratic tradition in which Putin is casting himself, with one of them hailing him as "imperator," the formal title of the Russian tsars since the time of Peter the Great. Russian ultranationalists also expressed hope that Putin will continue to deepen an anti-Western ideology that the Kremlin has been heavily developing since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The current Russian cabinet of ministers and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin formally resigned on May 7 as constitutionally mandated, and the ministers who return to service and the ones whom Putin replaces will indicate who has Putin's favor and signal his political priorities for his fifth term
Belarus has announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection likely as part of the Kremlin's re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on May 7 that it exposed a network of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) operatives who were planning to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence and military officials
The Russian Prosecutor General's Office declared US non-governmental organization (NGO) Freedom House an "undesirable organization" on May 7, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the domestic information space and further deprive Russians of access to civil society organizations and independent assessments of Russian civil and political rights.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly recruit Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military in occupied Kherson Oblast.
The Kremlin is working with occupation administrators to strengthen Russia's control over the child welfare system in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:05 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
At the end of the day nothing was written nor signed so it's basically impossible to actually say what if anything was actually agreed to and if any promise was broken. As a I stated early no formal agreement exists ETA but it is SUPER easy to find whatever "evidence" you want to support whatever outcome you want. I.E. you can make it look like NATO broke a promise or that no such promise was made
Absolutely, and regardless of that there are people in the Russian government who are acting as if an agreement was made.
To me the whole “we were just talking about Germany!” Argument seems like obvious revisionist history…. Which is just my opinion and is fine even if that were the case, because everyone participates in revisionist history to fit their current goals/narrative.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:28 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
To me the whole “we were just talking about Germany!” Argument seems like obvious revisionist history…. Which is just my opinion and is fine even if that were the case, because everyone participates in revisionist history to fit their current goals/narrative.
Because you don't understand that the context of the discussion was about Germany's reunification.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:30 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.
I suspect that Putin's end will be due to many Russian oligarchs finding his policy of war and aggression to be bad for business with the only return being war and blood spilled.
He could have gone for peace and prosperity instead of his throw-back Peter The Great dreams.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:33 pm to Auburn1968
Missiles hitting everywhere
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:34 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Because you don't understand that the context of the discussion was about Germany's reunification.
The Putin apologists want you to believe the Russians negotiated these terms, but they trusted us so they didn’t insist that the “agreement” be put in writing. Or they say Russia no longer had any stroke do they couldn’t make us put the “agreement” in writing.
But you are correct. The iron curtain was still in place. Russia still controlled the Eastern Bloc and German unification was the pressing issue.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:40 pm to CitizenK
Nice opinion you got there
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:41 pm to CitizenK
In our conversation was he mentioned the new similar to Wankel engine he was involved with that Ukraine is putting into drones for more HP, longer distance and lower fuel consumption than conventional engines.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:45 pm to doubleb
quote:
But you are correct. The iron curtain was still in place. Russia still controlled the Eastern Bloc and German unification was the pressing issue.
German unification was the issue, and part of the negotiations when resolving that issue at one point or another was the promise to not expand NATO eastward. Only a total fool who is way too invested in virtue signaling “Russia bad” to a group of total strangers online as drool spews from their mouth would try to convince themselves that Russia would be ok with Poland in NATO, but not eastern Germany
Posted on 5/7/24 at 11:24 pm to VolSquatch
to East Germany which is exactly what Gorbie stated in an interview.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 3:21 am to Auburn1968
quote:
I suspect that Putin's end will be due to many Russian oligarchs finding his policy of war and aggression to be bad for business with the only return being war and blood spilled.
He could have gone for peace and prosperity instead of his throw-back Peter The Great dreams.
Deja Vu... did you post this word-for-word pages back?
But no... Putin has done a great job picking "weak" Oligarchs. None of them can challenge him, independently, and they're all too scared to join a plot. He has an official state security apparatus, and then a secondary security apparatus in Russia's organized crime rings... so that two sets of eyes and ears on everybody and there's a window with everybody's name on it if they cause trouble. Prigozhin just served as an example should anybody get any foolish notions.
They will abandon him and side with whatever mob is eventually storming the Kremlin when the country falls apart, but they aren't going to be organizing that mob.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 4:43 am to CitizenK
quote:
He is well aware of how the money for "Ukraine" is almost all going to revive US defense manufacturing plants gutted over the last 35 years by Democrat administrations.
Are you counting 35 non-consecutive years of Democratic administrations, here? With a carve-out for the Bush/Cheney terms?
Does past defense manufacturing all even still make sense?
Sure, Ukraine needs Howitzer rounds... when will the US ever need them if we don't send troops off somewhere to trench warfare again?
There's even a bit of a joke I remember, I think from the (great) book version of "World War Z": "The US military is always fully prepared and equipped... to fight the last war they were involved in!"
We tend to make big, expensive, sophisticated, costly-and-difficult-to-maintain weapons... and who will we be fighting in that fashion from here on out? We just fought protracted wars with enemies that had no Navy, Air Force, or defense budget... that did things like trigger explosives remotely with cell phones, or turn our own jetliners into bombs.
Of course, after that, there's going to be a re-think. Especially with the majority of the public dead set against direct troop involvement in anything at this point.
You guys posted some much-hyped American drone thing or something here that turned out to be a big disappointment and worthless in Ukraine... while Iranian Shahed "flying moped" drones and Ukrainians using cheap hobbyist drones with warheads attached to them, and naval drones made out of jetskis have done immeasurable damage.
I think our defense sector needs to swing into high gear, but they need to think outside of their usual box.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 6:05 am to Lee B
quote:
Are you counting 35 non-consecutive years of Democratic administrations, here? With a carve-out for the Bush/Cheney terms?
Clinton Admin had a lot of defense plants shutdown and forced defense contractors to merge. We stopped making Stinger missiles in the mid 1990's
Obama admin had more defense plants shutdown.
The US was using stored artillery shells during Bush/Cheney.
The Reagan Admin had to spend a lot just to bring the military up to speed with spare parts. Pilots had problems getting enough flying time to keep their qualifications under Carter. Democrats cuts military to use on social programs. This has been the case under Carter, Clinton, Obama and the start of Biden. Worst case on defense capability under GOP is the maintain capabilities.
quote:
You guys posted some much-hyped American drone thing or something here that turned out to be a big disappointment and worthless in Ukraine... while Iranian Shahed "flying moped" drones and Ukrainians using cheap hobbyist drones with warheads attached to them, and naval drones made out of jetskis have done immeasurable damage.
I think that you were referring to Switchblade drones. These are short range frontline drones. We haven't heard much but Baltic nations ordered a bunch of them after 6 months use in Ukraine. FTR, Lancets have hit Bradleys and Abrams with little damage. A major issue for Abrams is that it was built for tank on tank combat which is a rarity in Ukraine.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 6:49 am to Lee B
quote:
There's even a bit of a joke I remember, I think from the (great) book version of "World War Z": "The US military is always fully prepared and equipped... to fight the last war they were involved in!"
We tend to make big, expensive, sophisticated, costly-and-difficult-to-maintain weapons... and who will we be fighting in that fashion from here on out? We just fought protracted wars with enemies that had no Navy, Air Force, or defense budget... that did things like trigger explosives remotely with cell phones, or turn our own jetliners into bombs.
Of course, after that, there's going to be a re-think. Especially with the majority of the public dead set against direct troop involvement in anything at this point.
You've been mostly on point for the last few pages, good posts.
The Russia-Ukraine war will be studied for the next couple of decades until the next big war starts (hopefully its longer than that, could see it not even being that long unfortunately) and then by the time our military minds learn what there is to learn from the war it will be outdated at best or totally irrelevant because of new tech
Posted on 5/8/24 at 6:52 am to Lee B
quote:
Sure, Ukraine needs Howitzer rounds... when will the US ever need them if we don't send troops off somewhere to trench warfare again?
Artillery is the king of the battlefield—always has been and always will be. The war in Ukraine has shown us that in a wide-scale war, The US does not have enough artillery ammo. The consumption rates are huge, and we would run out of it fairly quickly.
This is true for all war stocks, not just artillery. Our defense industrial base could not currently support our country in a long conventional war.
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