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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/7/24 at 4:29 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 4/7/24 at 4:29 pm to CitizenK
quote:
1. requires diplomacy with several other nations being part of a coalition. We have increased oil and gas production to historical highs more than any nation in the history of oil/gas. However, that happens if China actually implodes without any trying.
Production is great and all. But what keeps the price of oil high is the fear that less and less new sources will come on line in the future coupled with government hostility against oil production and consumption.
This post was edited on 4/7/24 at 5:10 pm
2
Posted on 4/7/24 at 4:32 pm to cypher
quote:
So, I still wonder what it would take for a country with 16% market share to "crash" the market since OPEC+ has an ongoing policy of price support.
Biden admin did approve a shortline railroad into the Uinta Basin which could increase production from under 100,000 BPD to 800,000 BPD with access to markets and pipelines are useless with the high paraffin wax content crude oil. The chemical assays of that crude make it suitable naphtha and distillates production. So best crude oil there is for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and base oil (for motor oil) via atmospheric distillation, vacuum distillation, then cat cracking and/or hydrocracking.
In spite of the Pissing on Flat Rock tribe (who were pissed that the Dakota Access Pipeline didn't cross their land and the loss of right of way royalties), tribal lands love the cash flow from oil/gas drilling/production and pipeline right of way royalties. I found it funny that if a certain NGL's frac plant I'm thinking of buying land and all, if 1/2 mile in one direction it would be on tribal land and they don't give a frick about state regs for minor soil contamination and asbestos removal practices. It would be less expensive to abate these if on tribal land.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 4:46 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Pet ton is great and all. But what keeps the price of oil high is the fear that less and less new sources will come on line in the future coupled with government hostility against oil production and consumption.
An excess of natural gas in especially West Texas and it costing money to well owners paid to pipeline operators doesn't help. A lot of those wells in West and South Texas have iron contamination which European refineries don't like.
The price of crude oil is dictated by global demand, not so much US demand or existing regulations as some in the news media, alt or msm, make it out to be.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 5:10 pm to doubleb
quote:
The whole world sees that and it’s obvious now that he had no real plan.
And we can be sure that if he had a plan it would be major frick-up.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 5:16 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
The idiots in Washington know, or at least should know this. But they’re doing nothing on this front, and instead are implementing energy policies that are actually helping the Russians.
Guess that's why Putin gave money to American global warming and eco-activists.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 5:32 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Guess that's why Putin gave money to American global warming and eco-activists.
The Green Party in Germany too, which I find hilarious that they are supportive of Ukraine.
He also funded "anti fracking" in all European countries eve though it had been common practice in Germany's limestone formations for decades without any issues.
Only in Ukraine did "anti fracking" never gain any traction. Poland has actual shale oil like in the Rockies, but it is near the surface and strip mined to use like coal.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 5:51 pm to CitizenK
quote:
An excess of natural gas in especially West Texas and it costing money to well owners paid to pipeline operators doesn't help. A lot of those wells in West and South Texas have iron contamination which European refineries don't like. The price of crude oil is dictated by global demand, not so much US demand or existing regulations as some in the news media, alt or msm, make it out to be.
So, I guess we’re pretending that the stated policy goal from the US and most of Western Countries of ending fossil fuels within the next decade isn’t having any influence on the trajectory of oil prices.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 7:33 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:a
So, I guess we’re pretending that the stated policy goal from the US and most of Western Countries of ending fossil fuels within the next decade isn’t having any influence on the trajectory of oil prices.
No pretending, dependence is rising. Face it the newest media is made up with liberal arts degreed dullards.
UK has plenty of oil and gas in the North Sea but taxes eat up any profit.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 8:18 pm to TBoy
HUSSEIN got Ukraine into this war and sent non lethal aid. TRUMP SENT LETHAL AID.
Some SIMPs have selective memory.
Some SIMPs have selective memory.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:20 pm to Darth_Vader
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov reported that Ukraine anticipates Russian offensive operations to intensify in late spring and early summer.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with Chinese officials in China on April 8 and 9 amid Western warnings that China is increasingly helping Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and even providing China with geospatial intelligence.
Russian forces reportedly continue to systematically use prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine and are attacking Ukrainian positions with chemical substances almost daily throughout the frontline.
Russian officials accused Ukraine of launching a series of drone strikes against the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on April 7, but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) did not attribute responsibility for the strikes.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi openly condemned and is taking action following reports that members of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) may have purposefully intimidated a Ukrainian journalist investigating corruption within the SBU by issuing the journalist a draft summons.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on April 7.
Chieftan of the All-Russian Cossack Society and Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Nationalities Nikolai Doluda claimed on April 7 that more than 30,000 Cossack personnel have fought in Ukraine.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:33 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian forces reportedly continue to systematically use prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine and are attacking Ukrainian positions with chemical substances almost daily throughout the frontline.
I noticed they swapped out the daily "kidnapping children" with this now. Are there sources for this garbage?
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:43 pm to ColtRange
I think I figured it out, Biden said this a couple weeks ago...so now Ukrainians are being bombarded with chemical weapons daily all of the sudden 
Posted on 4/8/24 at 5:40 am to ColtRange
quote:
Are there sources for this garbage?
Yes. Several months back one of the brigades posted about using it on Telegram and subsequently deleted the post. FWIW, the banned chemical weapon is basically pepper spray. They have a whole paragraph associated with all the bullet points, so feel free to go to LINK and read it yourself.
ETA and they have links to each source they reference
ETA2 LINK posted back in December
This post was edited on 4/8/24 at 5:59 am
Posted on 4/8/24 at 6:23 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 April 2024
On 3 April 2024, the chairman of Russia's State Duma stated there was a shortage of 30,000 doctors with district hospitals facing a shortage of approximately 50 per cent. This is up from 26,500 in November 2023. The current shortages were attributed to some medical staff working in the private sector, and others having left the country. After the September 2022
mobilisation of the Russian military, doctors were explicitly warned not to leave the country. Up to 2 per cent of Russian doctors and healthcare professionals left Russia to avoid the draft.
The increased work demands from fewer available doctors has contributed to some of the further reductions. An estimate from January 2024 highlighted in the previous 15 months that the number of doctors declined by 7,500, blaming long hours and low pay. According to the Centre for European Policy Analysis, to address this shortage, Russia has been recruiting from African nations with little validation of qualifications apart from a self-certifying declaration.
The major resource and financial commitment of supporting Russia's war in Ukraine is negatively affecting a range of civilian sectors that serve the Russian population. The numbers of healthcare professionals in Russia will continue to decrease throughout 2024. Externally sourcing medical staff with limited checks on qualifications creates the potential for clinical delivery degradation.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 April 2024
On 3 April 2024, the chairman of Russia's State Duma stated there was a shortage of 30,000 doctors with district hospitals facing a shortage of approximately 50 per cent. This is up from 26,500 in November 2023. The current shortages were attributed to some medical staff working in the private sector, and others having left the country. After the September 2022
mobilisation of the Russian military, doctors were explicitly warned not to leave the country. Up to 2 per cent of Russian doctors and healthcare professionals left Russia to avoid the draft.
The increased work demands from fewer available doctors has contributed to some of the further reductions. An estimate from January 2024 highlighted in the previous 15 months that the number of doctors declined by 7,500, blaming long hours and low pay. According to the Centre for European Policy Analysis, to address this shortage, Russia has been recruiting from African nations with little validation of qualifications apart from a self-certifying declaration.
The major resource and financial commitment of supporting Russia's war in Ukraine is negatively affecting a range of civilian sectors that serve the Russian population. The numbers of healthcare professionals in Russia will continue to decrease throughout 2024. Externally sourcing medical staff with limited checks on qualifications creates the potential for clinical delivery degradation.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 6:55 am to cypher
160,000 BPD refinery shut because of now two dams bursting in Orenburg Oblast. Specifically the Russneft (not Rosneft) refinery in Orsk.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 7:40 am to StormyMcMan
Imagine if WW3 starts over something our police officers use on our own populace
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:02 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Production is great and all. But what keeps the price of oil high is the fear that less and less new sources will come on line in the future coupled with government hostility against oil production and consumption.
You’re overstating the impact of psychology and way understating the impact of actual production levels.
I’m not going to act like the psychological aspect has zero impact; it does, but mostly on a fairly short time scale. Speculators might buy or sell based on how they foresee production/demand changing over the next 6-12 months but ultimately the actual market forces either prove them right or wrong.
OPEC is the primary market force on the supply side. Even with US crude production at its highest historical levels, you can’t force the market one way or the other without OPEC’s cooperation.
Fear doesn’t keep oil prices high. OPEC does.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:01 am to StormyMcMan
quote:LINK
Greece may transfer more than 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - niewsbreakk According to the portal, Greece is preparing to sell 108 fighter jets to be scrapped, of which 32 F-16C/-D Block 30 aircraft are likely to be transferred to Ukraine.
That would increase the number of F16s that Ukraine would eventually have to 90. I don’t know where Ukraine will get the pilots but it will be good for them to have to have spares
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:55 am to WeeWee
from The Kyiv Independent based on WP article...
Washington Post: Russia uses trolls to undermine US support for Ukraine
by Kateryna Hodunova April 8, 2024 3:46 PM
Moscow is trying to undermine the U.S. support for Ukraine by using its troll farms and political strategists in the backdrop of Kyiv's critical need for further American assistance, the Washington Post reported on April 8 after reviewing internal Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service.
U.S. aid to Ukraine has been delayed since fall 2023, as various versions of a foreign aid bill have been derailed due to border security disagreements.
In February, a $95 billion aid package to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan passed in the Senate with bipartisan support. House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far refused to bring it to a vote in the Republican-led House of Representatives.
The latest Russian disinformation campaign is part of a 10-year Kremlin strategy aiming to "elevate the voices of populist, anti-establishment politicians opposed to the U.S. global role," the Washington Post said, citing analysts and former American officials.
Political strategists and trolls have written thousands of fabricated news articles, social media posts, and comments that promote the idea of American isolationism, according to the media outlet.
Russia's disinformation campaign also aims to "stir fear over the United States' border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions."
The Washington Post said that one of the political strategists instructed a Russian troll farm employee to post comments of "no more than 200 characters in the name of a resident of a suburb of a major city."
The fictional American also had to describe U.S. President Joe Biden's policies as those that are leading the U.S. "toward collapse" and to oppose further military aid to Ukraine, promoting the message that "the money should be spent on America's border and not Ukraine's."
The accounts emphasized the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and called for border security to be prioritized over any aid to Ukraine.
The Russian trolls also accused Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky of corruption.
The campaign described "white Americans" as "the principal losers" of foreign aid, according to the document obtained by the Washington Post.
"Russia has been ramping up its propaganda operations as part of a second front that current and former senior Western officials said has become almost as important for Moscow as the military campaign in Ukraine," the Washington Post's article read.
"Especially as congressional approval for further aid has become critical for Kyiv's ability to continue defending itself."
Washington Post: Russia uses trolls to undermine US support for Ukraine
by Kateryna Hodunova April 8, 2024 3:46 PM
Moscow is trying to undermine the U.S. support for Ukraine by using its troll farms and political strategists in the backdrop of Kyiv's critical need for further American assistance, the Washington Post reported on April 8 after reviewing internal Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service.
U.S. aid to Ukraine has been delayed since fall 2023, as various versions of a foreign aid bill have been derailed due to border security disagreements.
In February, a $95 billion aid package to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan passed in the Senate with bipartisan support. House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far refused to bring it to a vote in the Republican-led House of Representatives.
The latest Russian disinformation campaign is part of a 10-year Kremlin strategy aiming to "elevate the voices of populist, anti-establishment politicians opposed to the U.S. global role," the Washington Post said, citing analysts and former American officials.
Political strategists and trolls have written thousands of fabricated news articles, social media posts, and comments that promote the idea of American isolationism, according to the media outlet.
Russia's disinformation campaign also aims to "stir fear over the United States' border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions."
The Washington Post said that one of the political strategists instructed a Russian troll farm employee to post comments of "no more than 200 characters in the name of a resident of a suburb of a major city."
The fictional American also had to describe U.S. President Joe Biden's policies as those that are leading the U.S. "toward collapse" and to oppose further military aid to Ukraine, promoting the message that "the money should be spent on America's border and not Ukraine's."
The accounts emphasized the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and called for border security to be prioritized over any aid to Ukraine.
The Russian trolls also accused Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky of corruption.
The campaign described "white Americans" as "the principal losers" of foreign aid, according to the document obtained by the Washington Post.
"Russia has been ramping up its propaganda operations as part of a second front that current and former senior Western officials said has become almost as important for Moscow as the military campaign in Ukraine," the Washington Post's article read.
"Especially as congressional approval for further aid has become critical for Kyiv's ability to continue defending itself."
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:01 am to WeeWee
I would guess they would be "recently retired" folks from other militaries around the world. I've noticed a fair amount of that within their ranks in the past. Are they short on Ukrainian pilots?
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