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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:40 am to WeeWee
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:40 am to WeeWee
quote:
So Trump will propose peace. Putin will reject and Trump will be forced to put up or shut up. At that point I expect him to put up and greatly increase the aid to Ukraine so Ukraine can win.
I wouldn’t hold my breath. If Trump is put in that position, it would be best for all Ukrainians to brush up on their Russian language fluency.
2
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:42 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
A more real threat would be the continued unfettered entry of illegals into this country
I agree. Now go start a thread on illegals coming into the US because this thread is for the Ukrainian/Rusdian war.
It’s not s as n either or situation. We should shut the border down and we should help Ukraine.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:42 am to cypher
quote:
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 April 2024
The average daily number of Russian losses (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reduced by 74 per day throughout March 2024, to 913 per day.
The decrease in losses corresponds with fewer reported attacks over the past month. The reduction in Russian offensive operations highly likely reflects a series of factors: a period of rest and refit following the capture of Avdiivka, and intent to reduce death notifications during the Russian election.
Since the February 2022 invasion, Russian forces have sustained 658 losses a day on average. Each year has seen a rise in the daily average loss rate from 400 in 2022, to 693 in 2023, to 913 through the first quarter of 2024.The increase reflects Russia's ongoing reliance on mass to sustain pressure on Ukrainian frontlines.
I’d bet Russia is marshaling forces for a summer offensive. It’s obvious Ukraine lacks the ability to go over to the offensive again like they did in their abortive 2023 offensive. The question is (1) how much offensive force will Russia have available by this summer and (2) what is the strength of Ukrainian defenses?
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:43 am to TBoy
Agreed and well said. Trump was such a Russian ally that Putin waited for him to lose office before he invaded.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 9:45 am to cypher
quote:
Russia has no military ships in Azov and Black Seas 07.04.2024 09:2
But it was just posted that they had already rebuilt their military!!!
Posted on 4/7/24 at 10:09 am to doubleb
quote:
It’s not s as n either or situation. We should shut the border down and we should help Ukraine.
If we’re being honest about helping Ukraine, the US, as things stand today, is in no position to provide any appreciable help to them. I say this because to provide Ukraine help on a level that would make a real difference in the strategic situation would require the US to seriously gear up its industrial output of munitions and weapons system. And while there has been public declarations about 155mm shell production, even those paltry numbers announced fall woefully short of what Ukraine needs on a monthly basis. The Biden administration is more interested in looking like it’s helping Ukraine than actually helping Ukraine.
Short of sending US forces into battle, there are three main ways the US could make a real difference in Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia:
1. Crash the price of oil
2. Massive industrial output of war materials
3. Diplomatic pressure to make Russia come to the negotiating table in a sincere manner.
We could do all three of these. But instead, after over two years of war we’re still doing none of the above.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 10:35 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
We could do all three of these. But instead, after over two years of war we’re still doing none of the above.
Certainly the way we helped previously could be disputed. Hindsight is 20/20 but it’s up to our leaders to plan these things.
But the Ukraine War is just an example of how the Federal government had failed the people. Never before in the history of mankind has trillions of dollars been squandered with little to show for it.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 10:50 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
This is one of the main reasons the Russians launched their “special military campaign” in the first place. Putin looked at Biden and he saw a weak, corrupt, and feeble minded dolt and he knew he had nothing to worry about from the US as long as the Biden regime is in power.
100%. The world has been on fire his whole term. I never in my life would have thought that a US Secretary of State would make such a cowardly statement in public and be totally dressed down by a French Foreign Minister. The Chinese abuse Blink in in the same manner every time they meet.
Total and Absolute Weakness and the world realizes/knows it.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 10:58 am to doubleb
quote:
Certainly the way we helped previously could be disputed. Hindsight is 20/20 but it’s up to our leaders to plan these things.
Biden has had over two years to do the three steps I laid out above. If the US and its NATO partners really want to help Ukraine, those three steps are the key to Ukrainian success in this war. And all are within our power to do so. And what’s even worse, is all three, especially 1 & 2, namely crashing the price of oil and massive industrial production, would have the added benefit of helping the US economy, not to mention helping increase US influence on the world stage.
But they’ve done nothing. For two years they’ve done nothing but make empty gestures and take ineffective half measures. The failure of the Biden regime when it comes to the war in Ukraine cannot be overstated.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 11:04 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
crashing the price of oil
How much increase in production by the US would it take to crash the price of oil?
Posted on 4/7/24 at 11:04 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
But they’ve done nothing
It started with Obama. Trump didn’t add much, and yes it all fell into Biden’s lap.
Biden and his gang that couldn’t shoot straight didn’t act decisively. The whole world sees that and it’s obvious now that he had no real plan.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 12:38 pm to doubleb
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Earlier today, Ukrainian forces mounted an attack into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast utilizing jet-powered OWA drones.
These drones, effectively low cost cruise missiles, present a serious new challenge to Russian air defenses.
LINK
quote:
The AFU attacked the Belgorod region with four airplane-type drones at once.
Presumably, Ukrjet's UJ-25 Skyline UAVs were used for the raid. All of them were destroyed by on-duty air defense units.
To the southwest of Belgorod in the village of Shagarovka, a family traveling in a car was hit by shrapnel from a detonated drone.
One passenger died, the other five people, including children, were injured and taken to medical facilities.
LINK
quote:
NEW: Trump has privately said he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine by pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas region to Russia, according to people who discussed it with Trump or his advisers - Washington Post
LINK
quote:
Russians still unable to restart Syzran oil refinery attacked on March 16 — The Insider
Employees no longer get paid their salaries
LINK
quote:
A drone exploded on the territory of Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant - IAEA
"Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant informed IAEA experts that a drone detonated on the territory of the plant today. Such detonation was observed by us as well. I call for refraining from actions that contradict the IAEA's five principles and violate nuclear safety," said Grossi, the Agency's director.
He did not specify who launched the UAV.
LINK
quote:
Thousands of protesters outside Budapest's parliament again demanded the resignation of the Hungarian prime minister — Reuters
The protests began after Orbán's former associate Péter Magyar published an audio tape confirming corruption in the Hungarian parliament.
LINK
Posted on 4/7/24 at 1:12 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Populist Peter Pellegrini has been elected president of Slovakia, succeeding the liberal Zuzana Caputova.
W.
Lets heckin go. Populism is the way
Posted on 4/7/24 at 1:20 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Putin looked at Biden and he saw a weak, corrupt, and feeble minded dolt and he knew he had nothing to worry about from the US as long as the Biden regime is in power.
quote:
For two years they’ve done nothing but make empty gestures and take ineffective half measures. The failure of the Biden regime when it comes to the war in Ukraine cannot be overstated
Yup. And GOPe_Tiger is going to vote for Biden over Trump. Can you imagine this angry boomer mailing in his resignation letter to his volunteer GOP post after Trump won in 2016? Whichever secretary received it was like "okay..." and they found a replacement in like 5 minutes.
This post was edited on 4/7/24 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 4/7/24 at 1:23 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Populism is the way
You do realize populism isn't a political platform right? It's more of a generic framework of "us" vs "them" but no actual policy positions. For example Bernie Sanders and Donlad Trump are both populist candidates
Posted on 4/7/24 at 1:25 pm to StormyMcMan
Nationalist populism- Milei, Trump, Farage, Wilders
Posted on 4/7/24 at 3:01 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Can you imagine this angry boomer
1) Not a boomer
2) Not angry
You don't imagine very well.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 3:04 pm to cypher
quote:
crashing the price of oil
quote:
How much increase in production by the US would it take to crash the price of oil?
Production levels is only one portion of the equation when it comes to the price of oil. The other factor is politically driven. When the administration has a stated goal of reducing, if not eliminating oil in the coming years, that serves to squash any efforts in future oil exploration and development of capacity growth. If the Biden Administration would reverse its stance on things like oil leases and other projects that are geared toward expanding the already high US export, that would bring the price of oil down.
The importance of oil to the Russian economy cannot be overstated. Russia’s economy is almost totally reliant upon it. High oil prices are keeping the Russian economy afloat. The US and its NATO partners should be doing everything in their power to drive the price of oil into the ground. This would cripple Russia.
Look at the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1980 oil was at $120 per barrel. By 1986 oil was down to a little over $20 per barrel. The effect of the Soviet economy was devastating. The Soviets had used high oil prices to put a bandaid on the rot of the rest of the Soviet economy. Oil had kept the whole house of cards standing. Once the price of oil collapsed in the late 80s, that house of cards came crashing down.
If you want to beat Russia, you do it with oil!
The idiots in Washington know, or at least should know this. But they’re doing nothing on this front, and instead are implementing energy policies that are actually helping the Russians.
So, for all those who think Biden is Ukraine’s friend and Trump their enemy, pull your head out of your arse and look at what Biden has actually been doing.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 4:07 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Production levels is only one portion of the equation when it comes to the price of oil. The other factor is politically driven. When the administration has a stated goal of reducing, if not eliminating oil in the coming years, that serves to squash any efforts in future oil exploration and development of capacity growth. If the Biden Administration would reverse its stance on things like oil leases and other projects that are geared toward expanding the already high US export, that would bring the price of oil down.
CitizenK will probable rip this to shreds, but I'm seeing the following...
The US is producing the most it ever has and represents 16% of the global output.
OPEC+ countries produce about 60%
OPEC+ has a policy of price stability using voluntary cuts. They can produce more but have agreed not to - they want to maintain a high price. Presumably they can withhold more if needed to achieve their goals.
Several OPEC+ countries announce extension of additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for the second quarter of 2024
So, I still wonder what it would take for a country with 16% market share to "crash" the market since OPEC+ has an ongoing policy of price support.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 4:22 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
1. Crash the price of oil
2. Massive industrial output of war materials
3. Diplomatic pressure to make Russia come to the negotiating table in a sincere manner.
1. requires diplomacy with several other nations being part of a coalition. We have increased oil and gas production to historical highs more than any nation in the history of oil/gas. However, that happens if China actually implodes without any trying.
2. Leftists loathe arms production and why so much was shuttered during Obama's time in office.
3. That's really part of 1.
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