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1
Posted on 7/26/23 at 3:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
LOL
You're right. Ukraine losing at least 40 armored vehicles (many are bradleys and leopards) in a suicide mission, last night is LOL-worthy.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 3:44 pm to Pfft
quote:
Looks like todays score is Russia 3, UKR 0
Not so fast, Zelensky said there is good news coming.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 3:48 pm to ColtRange
Zelensky is always going to say it’s good news.
The proof will be in the pudding. I did read that Ukraine had committed a bunch of it’s reserves into the fight so maybe they found a gap in the lines.
The proof will be in the pudding. I did read that Ukraine had committed a bunch of it’s reserves into the fight so maybe they found a gap in the lines.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 3:54 pm to Pfft
quote:
Looks like todays score is Russia 3, UKR 0 Not good
Women’s World Cup????
All kidding aside, that match would be much see TV.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 4:22 pm to doubleb
quote:
Women’s World Cup????
Neither have a team in it this year, which isn't a surprise given the current situation.
The overall quality thus far has been good though I am more a rugby and waterpolo man so am not the best judge.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 4:27 pm to doubleb
NY Times:
‘This is the big test’: U.S. officials describe a new Ukrainian effort to sever Russia’s hold on the south.
Back at the very beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, the 47th Mechanized made a big attempt to advance, and they got wrecked. It was the 47th's first action of the war, and they had a number of Leopards and Bradleys knocked out of action by mines (many of which were later recovered and repaired), but they also lost vehicles to Russian artillery, and also to KA-52 Alligator helicopters firing AGTMs.
Since then, Ukraine has advanced very slowly and carefully -- not risking another big attack -- until today.
As we have discussed, this axis was always the most obvious place for Ukraine to attack, and so Russia has three full layers of "Surovikin lines," named after the Russian general (now possibly under arrest?) who ordered their construction.
What Ukraine is doing now is adding more fresh units to the fight and attempting to break through the first of those three layers of defensive lines. Since that first big attempt seven weeks ago, the 47th has undoubtedly learned to fight better, Russian artillery has been attritted, and Russia has lost several of those KA-52s (including one yesterday).
Is all that enough to make a difference? That's what we will find out over the next week or two.
‘This is the big test’: U.S. officials describe a new Ukrainian effort to sever Russia’s hold on the south.
quote:
The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the campaign. Their comments dovetailed with reports from the battlefield on Wednesday, where artillery battles flared along the southern front line in the Zaporizhzhia region.
And Igor Konashenkov, the Russian Defense Ministry’s chief spokesman, reported a “massive” assault and fierce battles south of Orikhiv, a town that Ukraine holds about 60 miles north of the Sea of Azov. Vladimir Rogov, an official appointed by Moscow in southern Ukraine, said the assault involved Ukrainian troops who had been trained abroad and were equipped with about 100 armored vehicles, including German-made Leopards and American-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
quote:
Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast.
Their goal is to sever the so-called land bridge between Russian-occupied Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, or at least advance far enough to put the strategically important peninsula within range of Ukrainian artillery. Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and uses it as the base for its Black Sea fleet as well as to supply its forces in the south.
The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, Ukrainian officials have told officials in Washington.
However, little has gone according to plan since the counteroffensive started early in June, and officials at the White House and Pentagon said on Wednesday they were watching the increased activity with keen interest.
“This is the big test,” said one senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Back at the very beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, the 47th Mechanized made a big attempt to advance, and they got wrecked. It was the 47th's first action of the war, and they had a number of Leopards and Bradleys knocked out of action by mines (many of which were later recovered and repaired), but they also lost vehicles to Russian artillery, and also to KA-52 Alligator helicopters firing AGTMs.
Since then, Ukraine has advanced very slowly and carefully -- not risking another big attack -- until today.
As we have discussed, this axis was always the most obvious place for Ukraine to attack, and so Russia has three full layers of "Surovikin lines," named after the Russian general (now possibly under arrest?) who ordered their construction.
What Ukraine is doing now is adding more fresh units to the fight and attempting to break through the first of those three layers of defensive lines. Since that first big attempt seven weeks ago, the 47th has undoubtedly learned to fight better, Russian artillery has been attritted, and Russia has lost several of those KA-52s (including one yesterday).
Is all that enough to make a difference? That's what we will find out over the next week or two.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 4:30 pm to ruffleforeskin
Oh Look..
its rumpelstiltskin!
its rumpelstiltskin!
Posted on 7/26/23 at 4:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday,
Posted on 7/26/23 at 4:55 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast,
I spent a lifetime in deep study of military history. I’ve never heard of an offensive where the main thrust started two months after the start of the offensive. This is something new.
quote:
Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast.
They should not be discussing this in the freaking newspapers.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 5:01 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
This is the key question as it seems it will be the determining factor in how this war ends. From the Ukrainian standpoint, everything depends on the West. As long as NATO continues to support the Ukrainian war effort, I think Ukraine can stay in the fight. If the political winds change in the West, the outlook for Ukraine would be grim.
Indeed in terms of ammunition alone support from the West is critical. The upcoming election in the U.S. is likely to play a key roll in continued U.S. support as the war will be used as a divisive issue. I do believe for now that parts of Europe, especially the former soviet state members, would continue support - though in a more muted fashion if the U.S. lessens or halts it support. If the conflict continues into 2024 I will be curious to see how the elections in Russia evolve in both a build up to, and outcome, perspective.
quote:
As for Russia, that’s harder to say. Yes, they have the advantage in having more bodies to feed the meat grinder. And they have vast reserves of all sorts of military hardware, though those reserves are being drained to the point they’re resorting to things like pulling T-62 tanks out to send to the front. And while they do not have anything like a NATO helping their war effort, it’s come to light China is providing vast quantities of equipment, non-lethal reportedly, but assistance none the less.
I agree that is the question that is largely unknown - just how much does Russia have stashed away that is functional enough for use in combat? A manpower advantage is always useful but if you can't give them something to shoot with (or ammo to shoot) then the advantage is significantly lessened and the knock on effect to morale could be a net negative. The assistance from China is worth watching, they have significant potential to alleviate at least some of the supply issues of Russia, they just have to balance it against antagonising other trade partners who are a much more significant part of their economy.
quote:
I think, in the end, as is the case in all wars of attrition, what it will come down to is a matter of will. Which side has the will to outlast the other? For the Ukrainians that’s largely dependent on NATO. For the Russians, that the Russian people. How long will the Russian people tolerate a grinding war of attrition, especially if it appears the huge losses they’re suffering is not leading to anything meaningful? For the Ukrainians, it’s a simple matter. They’re motivated by the fact they’re fighting for their freedom. Does the average Russian think they’re fighting for their freedom? That’s doubtful, even with Russian propaganda efforts. Russians are not stupid they see what’s happening. So how long will the Russian people tolerate a war of attrition that seems to be not yielding any fruit and is not being fought to protect Russia but to conquer land?
Very much all this.
It has been interesting to see the different approaches both sides have taken to attack their opponents will. Russia has waged a deep strike campaign mainly focused on infrastructure targets, and are aiming to destroy the Ukrainian publics support for the war and its regime. Ukraine on the other hand is has appeared very much focused on eliminating logistics, supply, and command capabilities of the Russian forces and are attacking the will of the army.
Both are valid strategies, my impression up to this point is that Ukraine is seeing a better net positive from their strategy over that of Russia, the fact they have only engaged Russia primarily in Ukraine itself has been a wise decision in my view as it has limited Russia's ability to sound the rallying cry of the Motherland being under attack which is one of the main platform used to justify the invasion.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 5:06 pm to Darth_Vader
I wonder what DARPA might cook up in terms of a method or technology to rapidly de-mine.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 5:07 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I spent a lifetime in deep study of military history. I’ve never heard of an offensive where the main thrust started two months after the start of the offensive. This is something new.
You know more about war than I will pretend to, but is this that different than the first gulf war? The main thrust there started only after a 40+ day arse blarsting that eliminated much of Iraqi defensive capabilities.
I just see this as Ukraine doing something similar ahead of their main thrust in trying to attrit Russian artillery. They don’t have the ability to do so with planes and ships, but the concept doesn’t seem that dissimilar to me?
This post was edited on 7/26/23 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 7/26/23 at 5:56 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Russia does not have the capability to bomb anyone into the Stone Age, conventionally.
Whut?
That right there is some fairy tale level delusion
Posted on 7/26/23 at 6:23 pm to WhereisAtlanta
A case can be made that Chechens were already living in the stone age.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 6:26 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
They should not be discussing this in the freaking newspapers.
Unless it's another ruse.
OTOH you can't hide that kind of buildup nowadays anyway. Even if it's true the Russians probably knew about it weeks ago.
This post was edited on 7/26/23 at 6:28 pm
Posted on 7/26/23 at 6:28 pm to WhereisAtlanta
Posted on 7/26/23 at 6:30 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
You know more about war than I will pretend to, but is this that different than the first gulf war? The main thrust there started only after a 40+ day arse blarsting that eliminated much of Iraqi defensive capabilities.
That was an air campaign. And we had virtual air supremacy. Our losses in the air wer light and during that time we ground troops were sitting, training, preparing, and waiting. When the ground offensive started all our forces were full strength and ready. This is different. Ukrainian ground forces have already been battering themselves against Russian lines for two months, inflicting serious losses to be sure; but likewise incurring significant losses themselves.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 6:32 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Unless it's another ruse.
I did consider that as a possibility.
quote:
OTOH you can't hide that kind of buildup nowadays anyway. Even if it's true the Russians probably knew about it weeks ago.
True. But you don’t have to go and announce to the world exactly where that force is going once it’s committed to battle.
This post was edited on 7/26/23 at 6:33 pm
Posted on 7/26/23 at 6:41 pm to WhereisAtlanta
If they could have, they would have.
This whole “the gloves will come off any minute” from Russophiles is a hilarious exercise in schizophrenia.
This whole “the gloves will come off any minute” from Russophiles is a hilarious exercise in schizophrenia.
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