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Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:56 am to LSUPilot07
The large troop concentration would make sense. I figured for Ukraine to use a Storm Shadow, they had good Intel that either weapons or a shite ton of soldiers were at that location.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:57 am to GOP_Tiger
Lindsey Graham doesn’t know shite 
Posted on 5/31/23 at 3:20 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 31 May 2023
Since the start of May 2023, Russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the conflict and is reacting to Ukrainian action rather than actively progressing towards its own war aims.
During May 2023, Russia has launched 20 nights of one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep inside Ukraine. Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralising Ukraine's improved air defences and destroying Ukrainian counter-attack forces. On the ground, it has redeployed security forces to react to partisan attacks inside western Russia.
Operationally, Russian commanders are likely attempting to generate reserve forces and position them where they believe a Ukrainian counter-attack will occur. However, this has probably been undermined by uncommitted forces instead being sent to fill gaps in the front line around Bakhmut.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 31 May 2023
Since the start of May 2023, Russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the conflict and is reacting to Ukrainian action rather than actively progressing towards its own war aims.
During May 2023, Russia has launched 20 nights of one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep inside Ukraine. Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralising Ukraine's improved air defences and destroying Ukrainian counter-attack forces. On the ground, it has redeployed security forces to react to partisan attacks inside western Russia.
Operationally, Russian commanders are likely attempting to generate reserve forces and position them where they believe a Ukrainian counter-attack will occur. However, this has probably been undermined by uncommitted forces instead being sent to fill gaps in the front line around Bakhmut.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:45 am to cypher
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
The Defense Forces of Ukraine will receive CV-90 BMP, - Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
It is reported that this will be another help from Swedish partners. Ukrainian crews are already completing training to master them
LINK
quote:
#Putin will not come to India for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, but will participate in the conference via video link
LINK
quote:
Last night, the Afipsky oil refinery located in Krasnodar Krai of Russia was attacked with a UAV/loitering munition. As a result of the strike, a fire broke out at the facility.
Later, Governor Veniamin Kondratyev stated that the fire was put out and there were no casualties.
LINK
quote:
US Secretary of State Anthony #Blinken said #Washington expects #Sweden to join #NATO in the coming weeks.
"We look forward to this process being completed in the weeks ahead. We have no doubt that it can be, and it should be and we expect it to be," Blinken said during a visit to Sweden.
US President Joe Biden congratulated Erdogan on his re-election and offered him to unblock Sweden's entry into NATO in exchange for the supply of F-16 fighter jets.
"I congratulated Erdogan. He still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with #Sweden, so let's get that done. And so we'll be back in touch with one another," Biden said.
LINK
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:08 am to StormyMcMan
quote:LINK
Germany tells Russia to close four consulates on its soil: ministry
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:27 am to StormyMcMan
Sweden was neutral in WWII. Now they are joining NATO; thus choosing sides.
Many like to skoff at the Russian threat to Europe, but Sweden says otherwise.
Many like to skoff at the Russian threat to Europe, but Sweden says otherwise.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:32 am to GOP_Tiger
The Russian economy needs all the exports that it can possibly get, so this is obviously an indication that Russia is beginning to run low on rifle ammunition.
I continue to push back on the "time is on Russia's side" argument.
The Sky News report from March 8 on Iran supplying Russia with small arms ammo got some pushback, as some of the details didn't really make sense, as some of the ammo listed is calibers that Russia doesn't use and there were other photos of one of the ships full of used cars for the listed voyage.
But getting some of the details wrong might not mean that the whole story was wrong.
quote:
Russia has also introduced a temporary ban on the export of cartridges for civilian and service rifles, as well as cartridge cases and cartridges for rifled firearms of certain calibers, according to a statement released by the Russian government on Wednesday.
The decree, signed by Mishustin, takes effect on May 31 and states that the ban does not apply to the export of cartridges and cartridge cases meant for the activities of Russia's Armed Forces, "other troops" and "military formations," according to the statement.
"The decision is aimed at ensuring the protection of the interests of the state," the statement reads.
The decree was prepared as part of the execution of a Presidential Decree “On the Application of Special Economic Measures in the Sphere of Foreign Economic Activity to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation," according to the statement.
The ban will remain in effect until the end of the year.
I continue to push back on the "time is on Russia's side" argument.
The Sky News report from March 8 on Iran supplying Russia with small arms ammo got some pushback, as some of the details didn't really make sense, as some of the ammo listed is calibers that Russia doesn't use and there were other photos of one of the ships full of used cars for the listed voyage.
But getting some of the details wrong might not mean that the whole story was wrong.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:40 am to GOP_Tiger
Russia evades sanctions by shipping fuel products in unregistered tankers, but there are ways to combat that, and Singapore is doing its part.
LINK
LINK
quote:
Singapore’s detentions of oil and chemicals tankers have surged since early last year, highlighting growing concerns over the environmental and safety impact of an expanding fleet of aging vessels plying major shipping lanes.
The city-state has held 33 ships for failing safety inspections so far this year, the same as for the whole of the decade through 2019, according to figures from Tokyo MOU, a regional port control organization. April saw nine detentions, the most for any month since at least 2010.
The dramatic increase in failed inspections in Singapore fits with a regional trend of rising detentions across Asia since Russia invaded Ukraine early last year. The invasion and subsequent sanctions have prompted a rapid expansion in the dark fleet of tankers sailing under the radar, transporting sanctioned oil to buyers in China, India and elsewhere.
Those ships often operate with sub-standard insurance, and are usually past an age at which they would normally be sent for scrapping. A recent explosion on a tanker capable of carrying around 700,000 barrels of oil off the coast of Malaysia brought home the dangers these vessels can pose. Luckily, the Pablo, built in 1997, was nearly empty.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:56 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia evades sanctions by shipping fuel products in unregistered tankers, but there are ways to combat that, and Singapore is doing its part.
It seems that I cannot repeat this enough. The cost to get Russian crude out of the ground and to port is $50ish, this may have gotten down to $45 PER BARREL. Russian flagship crude, Urals, the traded price has been $45 to $56 per barrel. HOWEVER, they are having to give discounts to China, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia at an average of 35%.
This means that it costs more to get the oil to port than it is being sold for.
The question I have is whether or not Russia is getting back a piece of the action in refined products being sold to Europe, from those non-Russian refineries. Still, Russia's exports are nothing more than robbing Peter to pay Paul sort of trading.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 8:30 am to cypher
quote:
Operationally, Russian commanders are likely attempting to generate reserve forces and position them where they believe a Ukrainian counter-attack will occu
Every time I come to the OT I open this thread expecting to see the long awaited Ukrainian offensive has finally kicked off. It has to come soon I’d imagine. I’d guess no later than mid-June. Anyone hearing anything on this?
Posted on 5/31/23 at 8:50 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Anyone hearing anything on this?
Much of the recent info indicates the shaping operation is in progress. HVTs have been destroyed at various locations along the Azov Sea coast, etc.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 8:52 am to GOP_Tiger
I just listened to the latest episode of Michael Weiss's podcast. He interviewed one of ISW's analysts, and most of it was a fairly predictable conversation for the most part -- it's not an episode that I'd recommend for someone who follows the war closely.
What really struck me, though, was Weiss saying that, based on his conversations earlier this month in Kyiv (and he interviewed Budanov), Ukraine could probably agree to a final settlement in this war that does not return all of the Donbas, but they are completely unwilling to agree to anything that doesn't include Crimea.
If I can expand on that statement, the argument is that:
1) Much of the Donbas has been destroyed through fighting, both now and also over the last nine years
2) The Donbas is not of great strategic importance for the long-term security of Ukraine, and
3) Because there has been war there for the last nine years, the population of the occupied Donbas has become very Russified and would have strong opposition to rejoining Ukraine. The DNR and LNR troops have suffered the greatest losses among Russian forces. So, the populations of those areas would be very difficult to reintegrate back into Ukraine.
All three of those factors are the opposite for Crimea. Which is why this offensive is going to concentrate on an eventual goal of returning Crimea to Ukrainian control.
What really struck me, though, was Weiss saying that, based on his conversations earlier this month in Kyiv (and he interviewed Budanov), Ukraine could probably agree to a final settlement in this war that does not return all of the Donbas, but they are completely unwilling to agree to anything that doesn't include Crimea.
If I can expand on that statement, the argument is that:
1) Much of the Donbas has been destroyed through fighting, both now and also over the last nine years
2) The Donbas is not of great strategic importance for the long-term security of Ukraine, and
3) Because there has been war there for the last nine years, the population of the occupied Donbas has become very Russified and would have strong opposition to rejoining Ukraine. The DNR and LNR troops have suffered the greatest losses among Russian forces. So, the populations of those areas would be very difficult to reintegrate back into Ukraine.
All three of those factors are the opposite for Crimea. Which is why this offensive is going to concentrate on an eventual goal of returning Crimea to Ukrainian control.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 8:54 am to cypher
quote:
Much of the recent info indicates the shaping operation is in progress. HVTs have been destroyed at various locations along the Azov Sea coast, etc.
Nobody in this thread knows a goddamn thing about the counteroffensive. People were claiming “shaping operations” were underway in mid February on here. I said there was a 0% chance of a spring offensive happening and was called an idiot. I’d give it about a 35% chance or a real offensive beginning this month. The bullets aren’t arriving fast enough.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 8:57 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Every time I come to the OT I open this thread expecting to see the long awaited Ukrainian offensive has finally kicked off. It has to come soon I’d imagine. I’d guess no later than mid-June. Anyone hearing anything on this?
There were very heavy rains in southern Ukraine this week.
From former USAF meteorologist David Helms, posted just 30 minutes ago:
quote:
Discussion (31 May 2023): Last day of thunderstorms in the region located along coastal Sea of Azov moving slowly to the northwest providing locally heavy rain. After today, forecast calls for 10 days of mostly sunny conditions helping to dry out wet soil.
I wouldn't expect the heavy ground action to start until a week or so, but that's when I expect it to happen. Ukraine can't wait much longer.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 9:04 am to Darth_Vader
I am with you.
At the moment, I think Ukraine is trying to balance getting more combat power on the battlefield with starting the offensive.
This week Zelensky said the orders have been given. That is a definite change in the messaging we've heard for months.
You have to watch closely to see the subtle shifts in the messaging that is flowing out. Zelensky made his statement, the Head of the Ukrainian military released a hype video, multiple government officials have said it's begun.
I think we're getting close. I said about a month ago, that I expected them to kickoff by mid-June.
At the moment, I think Ukraine is trying to balance getting more combat power on the battlefield with starting the offensive.
This week Zelensky said the orders have been given. That is a definite change in the messaging we've heard for months.
You have to watch closely to see the subtle shifts in the messaging that is flowing out. Zelensky made his statement, the Head of the Ukrainian military released a hype video, multiple government officials have said it's begun.
I think we're getting close. I said about a month ago, that I expected them to kickoff by mid-June.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 9:30 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
1) Much of the Donbas has been destroyed through fighting, both now and also over the last nine years
2) The Donbas is not of great strategic importance for the long-term security of Ukraine, and
I will add the most heavily subsidized part of Ukraine. It's coal mines were negative revenue generation, in large due mismanagement and heavily subsidized by the Ukrainian government before 2014
Posted on 5/31/23 at 9:50 am to Chromdome35
quote:
At the moment, I think Ukraine is trying to balance getting more combat power on the battlefield with starting the offensive.
That’s a two edged sword. The longer they delay, the more time Russia has to prepare.
quote:
This week Zelensky said the orders have been given. That is a definite change in the messaging we've heard for months.
You have to watch closely to see the subtle shifts in the messaging that is flowing out. Zelensky made his statement, the Head of the Ukrainian military released a hype video, multiple government officials have said it's begun.
If orders have gone out, I’d guess it has to kick off within the next couple of weeks.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 9:55 am to Darth_Vader
Two companies of Russian soldiers, two ammo depots smashed in Tavria direction
31.05.2023 17:24
The missile and artillery units of Ukraine’s Defense Forces have completed 803 fire missions in the Tavria direction over the past day.
The relevant statement was made on Telegram by Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group of Troops, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“The enemy’s losses in killed and injured came to about two companies. Over 10 ammunition and military equipment pieces were destroyed and damaged, in particular one armored personnel carrier, three 120mm mortar systems and one 82mm mortar system, one MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun, one 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer,” the report states.
Additionally, two enemy ammunition depots were destroyed.
UKRINFORM
31.05.2023 17:24
The missile and artillery units of Ukraine’s Defense Forces have completed 803 fire missions in the Tavria direction over the past day.
The relevant statement was made on Telegram by Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group of Troops, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“The enemy’s losses in killed and injured came to about two companies. Over 10 ammunition and military equipment pieces were destroyed and damaged, in particular one armored personnel carrier, three 120mm mortar systems and one 82mm mortar system, one MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun, one 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer,” the report states.
Additionally, two enemy ammunition depots were destroyed.
UKRINFORM
Posted on 5/31/23 at 9:55 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
That’s a two edged sword. The longer they delay, the more time Russia has to prepare.
Agreed, I'm sure there is some advanced modeling that is telling them when that point is reached. By this point, they have to have wargamed this out many times.
Germany screwed up and waited too long to begin their attack at Kursk, allowing the russians time to prepare. The question at this point in my mind is: Is the current Russian army growing stronger daily or weaker? I don't see any signs of Russia improving...anywhere.
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