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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/29/23 at 4:23 pm to doubleb
Posted on 3/29/23 at 4:23 pm to doubleb
quote:
I’m struck by the amount of preinvasion planning, and how they still failed miserably.
It seems they used their old playbook, but this time it did not work. I’m guessing that the Ukrainian hatred of the Russians was so great all the usual scheme failed.
The snipers in 2014 turned most ethnic Russians against Russia and towards Europe
Posted on 3/29/23 at 4:36 pm to facher08
quote:
Centinal hasn't posted here in months either, but I see him on other boards. I enjoyed both of their perspectives from serving/having served even though this thread is supposedly nothing but larpers playing wargames.
Same. Hopefully WeeWee is ok and Sentinel will come back at some point.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 5:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
LINK
So, the official estimate is that Russia (including Wagner) has suffered over 20,000 casualties in the last month. Ukraine likely somewhat overestimates the Russian death totals, but the loss of 20,000 men weakens the Russian defense ahead of Ukraine's offensive. (And that's not counting the loss of the 5000 Wagner convicts who've received their pardons.)
This is one of a number of reasons that I think Ukraine will begin its spring offensive before the end of April. No, the three new army corps are not ready yet, and it would be much better for them to spend a couple of months training together with all their new equipment -- but Russia isn't ready, either.
We don't know how close the Russian military might be to collapse. We know that they are very low on artillery shells, but we don't know how low. We know that tank ammo is running short. We know that the supply of Kornet ATGMs is starting to be rationed. The longer that Ukraine waits to attack, the more time that Russia has to try to replenish stocks.
Putin will have to do another big mobilization at some point. Ukraine needs to conduct this offensive before that happens.
quote:
Ukraine war: More than 220,000 Russian troops and mercenaries killed or injured since start of invasion, UK defence sec says
quote:
In February, British intelligence said Russia and its private military contractor forces had likely suffered between 175,000 to 200,000 casualties since the start of the invasion in February 2022.
So, the official estimate is that Russia (including Wagner) has suffered over 20,000 casualties in the last month. Ukraine likely somewhat overestimates the Russian death totals, but the loss of 20,000 men weakens the Russian defense ahead of Ukraine's offensive. (And that's not counting the loss of the 5000 Wagner convicts who've received their pardons.)
This is one of a number of reasons that I think Ukraine will begin its spring offensive before the end of April. No, the three new army corps are not ready yet, and it would be much better for them to spend a couple of months training together with all their new equipment -- but Russia isn't ready, either.
We don't know how close the Russian military might be to collapse. We know that they are very low on artillery shells, but we don't know how low. We know that tank ammo is running short. We know that the supply of Kornet ATGMs is starting to be rationed. The longer that Ukraine waits to attack, the more time that Russia has to try to replenish stocks.
Putin will have to do another big mobilization at some point. Ukraine needs to conduct this offensive before that happens.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 6:31 pm to Darth_Vader
I would think the Brits and Germans and whoever else is training the tank crews would also be doing a good bit of combined arms training with IFVs but wouldn’t we be the ones training the Bradley crews since they are our vehicles? I’d be interested to see how they delegated training with all these different systems from different countries. At one point it all has to come together I just wonder if one particular country was tasked with the combined training or if was still more of a group effort. Luckily basic western tactics are close to mirroring one another but at what point is it too many cooks in the kitchen when you really need one voice?
Posted on 3/29/23 at 6:58 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I would think the Brits and Germans and whoever else is training the tank crews would also be doing a good bit of combined arms training with IFVs but wouldn’t we be the ones training the Bradley crews since they are our vehicles? I’d be interested to see how they delegated training with all these different systems from different countries. At one point it all has to come together I just wonder if one particular country was tasked with the combined training or if was still more of a group effort. Luckily basic western tactics are close to mirroring one another but at what point is it too many cooks in the kitchen when you really need one voice?
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Greece and Croatia also have them
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:11 pm to CitizenK
Right but I doubt any of those countries would be the ones to train crews on the Bradley over us. I’m not worried the Ukes have proven very capable with whatever you hand them. They know they can’t fight tanks with them and expect to come out on top all the time. The TOW no doubt will knock out a tank but they also have to remain stationary while firing it which puts a big target on it’s back.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:18 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
train crews on the Bradley
Its us
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:20 pm to Lakeboy7
Why are we sending billions to Ukraine again?
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:23 pm to Lakeboy7
Army Times on February 17th:
quote:So, the next battalion should be finishing up. But this is really not all that many men -- we need to do more.
Ukrainian troops wrapped up the first rotation of battalion combined-arms training at U.S. Army Garrison Bavaria’s Grafenwoehr training area in Germany this week, the Pentagon announced Friday.
Training focused on the M2 Bradley fighting vehicle, a Pentagon spokesman said in a statement.
“Approximately 635 Ukrainians completed the approximately five-week period of instruction, which included basic soldier tasks like marksmanship, along with medical training, squad, platoon and company training, and a battalion force-on-force exercise,” said Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:24 pm to Geralt of Rivia
quote:
Why are we sending billions to Ukraine again?
Read the whole thread it will come to you.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:25 pm to Geralt of Rivia
quote:
Why are we sending billions to Ukraine again?
That's not the focus of this thread. It's about the actual war. There are plenty of threads on the Poliboard to discuss whether or not our aid is appropriate.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
Reuters:
So, Russia is still advancing inside the city.
The overall offensive, though, is petering out.
EDIT: from the pro-Russian account @LogKa11:
quote:
"Enemy forces had a degree of success in their actions aimed at storming the city of Bakhmut," the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in its regular nighttime report. "Our defenders are holding the city and are repelling numerous enemy attacks."
So, Russia is still advancing inside the city.
quote:
The average number of daily Russian attacks on the front line reported by Ukraine's general staff has declined for four straight weeks since the start of March, to 69 in the past seven days from 124 in the week of March 1-7. Just 57 attacks were reported on Wednesday.
The overall offensive, though, is petering out.
EDIT: from the pro-Russian account @LogKa11:
quote:
There are unconfirmed reports of Wagner forcez assaulting the district administration building and the city council of Bakhmut building. Ukrainian armed forces are now fighting from Bakhmutskaya and Blagoveshchenskaya streets
This post was edited on 3/29/23 at 7:31 pm
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, the next battalion should be finishing up
Its a new system so it takes how long it takes. And once back in the unit they will help train all those that cant go to the school.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
I want someone to tell me why it’s a good thing to send billions there instead of using it here.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:56 pm to Geralt of Rivia
Run along kid.
This was discussed back in the first 100 pages or so in this thread
This was discussed back in the first 100 pages or so in this thread
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:58 pm to Geralt of Rivia
quote:
I want someone to tell me why it’s a good thing to send billions there instead of using it here.
Because Ukrainians deserve it more than fentanyl junkies and welfare queens. Is your food stamp supply running low?
Posted on 3/29/23 at 7:59 pm to Geralt of Rivia
Tell everyone else at the Troll Farm hello from all of us here and best wishes. I guess that kissing icons in offices is better than in the trenches.
This post was edited on 3/29/23 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 3/29/23 at 8:05 pm to Geralt of Rivia
quote:
I want someone to tell me why it’s a good thing to send billions there instead of using it here.
Ask that in a new thread (or an old one) on the Poliboard and I promise that I'll go over there and give you a real answer. Seriously.
Posted on 3/29/23 at 8:10 pm to REG861
quote:
Because Ukrainians deserve it more than fentanyl junkies and welfare queens. Is your food stamp supply running low?
Okay so how are Ukrainians our responsibility?
Posted on 3/29/23 at 8:13 pm to Geralt of Rivia
quote:its not! yet theres nothing you can do about it! you being mad in this thread wont change anything
I want someone to tell me why it’s a good thing to send billions there instead of using it here.
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