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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/20/22 at 11:53 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 12/20/22 at 11:53 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Since you’re our resident expert, it seems like Ukraine isn’t too concerned about maintaining enough soldiers for the fight, but more so having enough weaponry and ammunition to maintain their momentum. Is that an accurate assessment?
WeeWee can give the specifics but you obviously haven't been paying attention. Ukr has many serving but only so many on the front at one time. They also rotate troops at the front.
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Posted on 12/20/22 at 11:54 pm to TigerFanatic99
Patriots are anti ballistic missiles not for drones.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 12:00 am to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Since you’re our resident expert, it seems like Ukraine isn’t too concerned about maintaining enough soldiers for the fight, but more so having enough weaponry and ammunition to maintain their momentum. Is that an accurate assessment?
I don’t think Ukraine is coming up short with people willing to defend their own country, Western weapons just make it a little easier.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 12:15 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I’d take this with a gargantuan grain of salt, but this Insta page i follow shared this today…
So, if this is legit, Ukraine is claiming just shy of 100k Russians have been killed so far since the start of the war. What the actual number is, I doubt we’ll know for years if ever.
An educated guess, but I'd surmise that overall number is probably not too far from the truth.
The tricky part gets into ascertaining how many were local militia conscripted into service vs. actual formal Russian servicemen. And then that's without taking into account things like Kadyrov casualties, Wagner group, etc. Tough to split that all out even if you had nearly perfect information, which none of us do (and which the Russian government almost certainly doesn't have, either).
I don't know this for sure, but I think it's a pretty good guess to say that the absolute single worst place and time and person to be in the world in 2022 was to be a Ukrainian military aged man in Russian-held territories in the south and especially east. I'd bet the total excess deaths for 18 - 49 y/o men in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia are approaching WWII levels in that part of the world thanks almost entirely to Russian conscription policy and the farcical training and deployment thereafter.
I'd zero in on that sort of thing about five or ten years from now. That generation of men in that part of the world has been slaughtered thanks to Putin.
This post was edited on 12/21/22 at 12:17 am
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:02 am to AbuTheMonkey
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:07 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
I'd zero in on that sort of thing about five or ten years from now. That generation of men in that part of the world has been slaughtered thanks to Putin.
Videos on Russian TV show very few under 30 year old men fighting for Russia. Mostly 40+, or maybe it's the hard living and high consumption of cheap rot gut vodka.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:37 am to Obtuse1
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:55 am to CitizenK
quote:
Videos on Russian TV show very few under 30 year old men fighting for Russia. Mostly 40+, or maybe it's the hard living and high consumption of cheap rot gut vodka.
A younger guy without responsibilities can emigrate or live off the grid, and may even be encouraged to do so by his family. These older guys may have some residual loyalty to Mother Russia, may have financial obligations they hope to pay off withe promised bonuses or may just not be savvy enough to game the system.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 6:42 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Agreed. It's high time we start spilling American blood over there.
Hell f**king NO!
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:02 am to Obtuse1
quote:
Two more (alleged) Russian military commercials:
I cannot find it now but I saw another where dad was working without pay and enlisted so he could buy an Iphone for his daughter. FWIW, Russia still cannot make a cellphone.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:08 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 21 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the last week, Russian military and Wagner proxy forces have made small advances on the eastern edge of the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut. Russian infantry likely now has a foothold in the eastern industrial areas of the town, and at times has advanced into the residential district of the city. Street fighting is ongoing.
Intense combat has occurred in the Bakhmut sector since June 2022, but the front lines have primarily been in open country around the eastern approaches to the town.
The war has seen little protracted, large-scale fighting in built up areas (FIBUA) since the Russian advances into Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk in July 2022. With FIBUA demanding highly trained infantry with excellent junior level leadership, this type of combat is unlikely to favour poorly trained Wagner fighters and the Russian army's mobilised reservists.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 21 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the last week, Russian military and Wagner proxy forces have made small advances on the eastern edge of the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut. Russian infantry likely now has a foothold in the eastern industrial areas of the town, and at times has advanced into the residential district of the city. Street fighting is ongoing.
Intense combat has occurred in the Bakhmut sector since June 2022, but the front lines have primarily been in open country around the eastern approaches to the town.
The war has seen little protracted, large-scale fighting in built up areas (FIBUA) since the Russian advances into Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk in July 2022. With FIBUA demanding highly trained infantry with excellent junior level leadership, this type of combat is unlikely to favour poorly trained Wagner fighters and the Russian army's mobilised reservists.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:14 am to CitizenK
quote:
I cannot find it now but I saw another where dad was working without pay and enlisted so he could buy an Iphone for his daughter. FWIW, Russia still cannot make a cellphone.
I linked to that one a page or so back.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:21 am to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Since you’re our resident expert, it seems like Ukraine isn’t too concerned about maintaining enough soldiers for the fight, but more so having enough weaponry and ammunition to maintain their momentum.
Ukraine has to keep the momentum up because they know time is not on their side. If these war drags into late 2024 or 2025 then they know that they are screwed. By then Russia will have modernized thousands of storage tanks, trained millions of conscripts, and Putin’s government will have secured itself regardless of what happens on the battlefield or the economy. Ukraine knows that 2023 is its best chance of pushing Russia out of Ukraine that would likely cause the downfall of the midget in the Kremlin.
quote:
They must have a shitload of guys serving.
Approximately 250,000 troops currently serving. 750,000 reserves who are either undergoing 3 months of NATO led training or have finished 3 months of NATO led training. Ukraine currently doesn’t need all their reserves so its letting them continue working and being civilians. However, Ukraine requires its reserves to be ready to mobilize with 24-48 hours notice.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:30 am to WeeWee
Analysis of the air war from Feb to the present...long read...
Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Patriotic war. The Rivalry is in the Air
Previously, we considered possible options for new or re-emerging threats and challenges for the country's defense on land. Now our task is to discuss the prospects for the next in order, but not in importance, domain of warfighting - Air Warfare. There is no doubt that airspace remains an integral component of the armed fighting against the Russian Federation and the key to success in repelling full-scale armed aggression. Despite the multiple superiority in combat potential, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were unable to implement it for several reasons. At the same time, the Ukrainian Air Forces are still unable to seize the initiative due to a critical imbalance of capabilities. A balanced and rapid build-up of both the air "shield" and the "sword" should become one of the key priorities in the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Rivalry is in the Air (UKRINFORM)
Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Patriotic war. The Rivalry is in the Air
Previously, we considered possible options for new or re-emerging threats and challenges for the country's defense on land. Now our task is to discuss the prospects for the next in order, but not in importance, domain of warfighting - Air Warfare. There is no doubt that airspace remains an integral component of the armed fighting against the Russian Federation and the key to success in repelling full-scale armed aggression. Despite the multiple superiority in combat potential, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were unable to implement it for several reasons. At the same time, the Ukrainian Air Forces are still unable to seize the initiative due to a critical imbalance of capabilities. A balanced and rapid build-up of both the air "shield" and the "sword" should become one of the key priorities in the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Rivalry is in the Air (UKRINFORM)
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:51 am to cypher
Starting to see more discussion of this. Right after the war started, there was significant instability in the Russian Ruble, which Russia was able to fix. For the last eight months, the value of the Ruble has been steady. In contrast to the shocking ineptitude of the Russian military, Russia's central bank managers have succeeded far beyond Western expectations.
But the collapse in oil prices is finally having an effect, and the Ruble has lost 13% against the dollar in the last month.
The danger for Russia is that this could turn into bank runs. And if the value of the Ruble appears to go into a continual decline, that only hastens citizens' desires to change their Rubles for other currencies, which accelerates the decline.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:53 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But the collapse in oil prices is finally having an effect, and the Ruble has lost 13% against the dollar in the last month.
Is it the collapse in oil prices or the fact that the "sanctions" and restrictions that the EU put on Russian oil and gas sales throughout the year did not go into effect December 1st?
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:56 am to WeeWee
quote:
By then Russia will have modernized thousands of storage tanks
How are they going to do this? I thought all of the technical components needed to modernize were imported from countries now holding them under embargo.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:12 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
Its just more fun having you fund it.
Yeah I bet it is clown.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:15 am to GOP_Tiger
Also, see these tweets from Visegrad:
Certainly, Russia can get replacement stuff from China, but I wonder about the impact. Visegrad certainly wishes for "serious trouble" -- we'll see.
quote:
When telecoms gear makers Nokia and Ericsson leave Russia at the end of the year, their departure will steadily cripple the country’s mobile networks.
Russians can expect slower downloads and uploads, more dropped calls, calls that won’t connect, and longer outages.
quote:
Russian operators will lose the ability to upgrade or patch software, and battle over dwindling spare parts inventories.
Ericsson and Nokia together account for a large share of the telecoms equipment market and close to 50% in terms of base stations in Russia.
quote:
Nokia and Ericsson make everything from the telecom antennas to the hardware that connects optical fiber carrying digital signals.
They also provide crucial software that enables different parts of the network to function together.
Russia will be in serious trouble from Jan. 1
Certainly, Russia can get replacement stuff from China, but I wonder about the impact. Visegrad certainly wishes for "serious trouble" -- we'll see.
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