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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:30 am to facher08
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:30 am to facher08
quote:
How are they going to do this? I thought all of the technical components needed to modernize were imported from countries now holding them under embargo.
They are but Russia has engineers of its own and it has the facilities to produce them. Russia will eventually figure out how to reverse engineer and produce the components needed. Russia also has allies (China and Iran) that will buy the components and then turn around and sell them to Russia. Plus some nations (cough France cough) will look the other way when their companies sell to the Russians. Give Russia enough time and it will be able to modernize its tanks and other equipment in storage. Will a modernized T55, T62, T72, or T80 be as good as a T90M or a western tank such as the M1A2 or Leopard2. However, Russia has 2000 T62s, 7000 T72s, 3000 T80s and unknown number of T55s in storage. Ukraine has < 1500 tanks total. Even with Javelins and other western ATGMs if Russia can modernize enough of them they will be able to overrun Ukraine's forces especially if they figure out how to use their mechanized infantry to protect their tanks.
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Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:34 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Certainly, Russia can get replacement stuff from China, but I wonder about the impact.
Well seeing how the USA and EU use Chinese components (i.e. Huawei) in their 5G systems they probably won't see much of an impact.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:38 am to CitizenK
quote:
Patriots are anti ballistic missiles not for drones.
They better rush them to Ukraine since Russia has allegedly received a ballistic missile shipment from Iran, and Belarus has reportedly agreed to allow Russia to launch ballistic missiles from its territory.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:47 am to Obtuse1
The situation on the ground near Bakhmut on 12/1/22.
The situation on the ground on 12/21/22.
Based on open source intel, Russia has advanced approximately 3 kms in 3 weeks.
The situation on the ground on 12/21/22.
Based on open source intel, Russia has advanced approximately 3 kms in 3 weeks.
This post was edited on 12/21/22 at 10:25 am
Posted on 12/21/22 at 9:45 am to WeeWee
Yeah, Russia is heading for lots more pain if they continue with direct assaults on Bakhmut.
What the need to do is partially surround the city. That's why the fight for Soledar is so important. If Soledar were to fall, that would put Bakhmut in real danger.
I know that Ukraine is still holding on to Soledar, but I'm more worried about it falling than I am about direct Russian attacks on Bakhmut.
What the need to do is partially surround the city. That's why the fight for Soledar is so important. If Soledar were to fall, that would put Bakhmut in real danger.
I know that Ukraine is still holding on to Soledar, but I'm more worried about it falling than I am about direct Russian attacks on Bakhmut.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 9:51 am to WeeWee
quote:
Patriots are anti ballistic missiles not for drones.
________________________________________________________
They better rush them to Ukraine since Russia has allegedly received a ballistic missile shipment from Iran, and Belarus has reportedly agreed to allow Russia to launch ballistic missiles from its territory.
What's needed is a layered air defense network with different systems that can respond to different kinds of threats. The German Gepards, for example, are ideal for shooting down the Shahed drones, but not so effective against missiles.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 10:44 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
What's needed is a layered air defense network with different systems that can respond to different kinds of threats.
Yes, you are absolutely correct. My sauce(s) have said that they have been asking far back the fall of 2021 when Russia first started preparing to invade. My sauce(s) in Ukraine tell me that they expected a missile attack on its infrastructure, like Russia has been conducting since October, as part of the initial stages of the invasion. The Ukrainians have been asking for Ukraine has been asking for western SAMs or at least USSR era systems to build a comprehensive layered air defense system since at least last fall. The USA and NATO did not take the requests seriously until this summer. Just like Ukraine has been requesting more diesel freight locomotive since the summer because they knew the electric grid was a vulnerability and they did not have enough diesel locomotives to absorb the load. The west still has not acknowledged this and its gotten so bad that Ukraine is bringing steam engines out of museums and asking the Baltic states to donate Russian gauge steam engines to them. The USA and NATO assistance as been of great help to the Ukrainians and had a profound effect on the war. However, the assistance on average is arriving 6 months too late.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 10:45 am to GOP_Tiger
Pressure on Kremima appears to be increasing. Maybe movement to the north will undermine the whole Wagner effort at Bakhmut.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:04 am to Athanatos
quote:
Pressure on Kremima appears to be increasing. Maybe movement to the north will undermine the whole Wagner effort at Bakhmut.
I don't think so because Putin is determined to get a W. However if Ukraine swaps Bakhmut for Kreminna then Ukraine gets the upper edge. Ukraine has an even more defensible position < 5 km west of Bakhmut to stop any Russian advance to the west. If Keminna falls then Russia will have to fall back to Severodonetsk which puts the supply lines to the Bakhmut axis in artillery range. Which is why it is mind boggling that Putin is going all in on Bakhmut.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:27 am to WeeWee
Full details of the today's announcement of the latest military aid package:
From Presidential Drawdown Authority:
-One Patriot battery and munitions;
-HIMARS ammo
-500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
-10 120mm mortar systems and 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
-10 82mm mortar systems;
-10 60mm mortar systems;
-37 Cougar MRAPs
-120 HMMWVs
-6 armored utility trucks;
-HARM missiles
-Precision aerial munitions;
-Over 2,700 grenade launchers and small arms;
-Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
-Demolition munitions
-Night vision devices and optics;
-Tactical secure communications systems;
-Body armor
From USAI (new purchases by the US for Ukraine)
-45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
-20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
-50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
-100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition;
-SATCOM terminals and services;
-Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
From Presidential Drawdown Authority:
-One Patriot battery and munitions;
-HIMARS ammo
-500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
-10 120mm mortar systems and 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
-10 82mm mortar systems;
-10 60mm mortar systems;
-37 Cougar MRAPs
-120 HMMWVs
-6 armored utility trucks;
-HARM missiles
-Precision aerial munitions;
-Over 2,700 grenade launchers and small arms;
-Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
-Demolition munitions
-Night vision devices and optics;
-Tactical secure communications systems;
-Body armor
From USAI (new purchases by the US for Ukraine)
-45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
-20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
-50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
-100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition;
-SATCOM terminals and services;
-Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:53 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
-20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
-50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
-100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition
This is probably needed more than everything else. In a weird way this conflict looks like it is going to be more about who has bigger stores of ammunition more so than who has more bodies to put into the fight
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:57 am to GOP_Tiger
I just noticed that, after all the talk about them supposedly being included in this package, the JDAM kits aren't listed. I wonder if that ended up delayed as we work on better ways to integrate controls for Ukrainian pilots (or for some other reason).
Posted on 12/21/22 at 12:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I just noticed that, after all the talk about them supposedly being included in this package, the JDAM kits aren't listed.
I think this may be it from the list above
-Precision aerial munitions;
If precision aerial munitions are a type of precision guided munitions then this definition may apply -
Definition from DoD -
The Department of Defense (DOD) defines a precision-
guided munition (PGM) as a “guided weapon intended to
destroy a point target and minimize collateral damage.”
This includes air- and ship-launched missiles, multiple
launched rockets, and guided bombs. PGMs typically use
the global positioning system (GPS), laser guidance, or
inertial navigation systems to improve a weapon’s accuracy
to reportedly less than 3 meters (approximately 10 feet).
This post was edited on 12/21/22 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
One Patriot battery and munitions;
Any word on when the hawks and other older SAM systems will reach Ukraine?
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:53 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Any word on when the hawks and other older SAM systems will reach Ukraine?
It was a month ago that the US announced that the money for the HAWKs refurbishment had been allocated.
That process is clearly not yet complete, because we haven't included the HAWKs in any drawdown announcement yet.
The good news is that Spain has already donated its HAWKs, so any additional training time for Ukrainians to use US HAWKs should be minimal.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:54 pm to cypher
quote:
-Precision aerial munitions;
Thanks, cypher. That makes sense.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 3:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It was a month ago that the US announced that the money for the HAWKs refurbishment had been allocated. That process is clearly not yet complete, because we haven't included the HAWKs in any drawdown announcement yet. The good news is that Spain has already donated its HAWKs, so any additional training time for Ukrainians to use US HAWKs should be minimal.
I wonder how long it takes to refurbish and modernize a missile. If Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure keeps getting hit as hard as it has been then they are not going to be able to repair it before the next attack. That will start a snowball effect and could bring down the electric system completely. If the electric system goes down that wipes out 1/3rd of Ukraine’s freight rail capacity and that could be bad news if it coincides with a Russian offensive. Those SAMs are needed ASAP or sooner.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:26 pm to WeeWee
Wee, do you think the Republicans in the House are going to support Ukraine in the next session? Because I just heard MTG is against it.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:40 pm to LeClerc
quote:
Wee, do you think the Republicans in the House are going to support Ukraine in the next session? Because I just heard MTG is against it.
MTG is a noisy minority, the alternative to AOC. 75% of the GOP supports Ukraine.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:48 pm to LeClerc
quote:
do you think the Republicans in the House are going to support Ukraine in the next session?
Oh no, this most recent appropriation will be the last.
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