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re: Unless Coach O explodes... It's Herman, Jimbo, then CEO

Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:42 pm to
Posted by glaucon
New Orleans, LA
Member since Aug 2008
5292 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

Take Peveto - he has a higher winning percentage as a permanent head coach than Orgeron. Now imagine if he were given the interim head coaching position, and subsequently took the team unbeaten the rest of the way.

You and I both know he wouldn't even be considered for the job (and rightfully so). And the fans wouldn't want him either.


It is hard to imagine Peveto being given the opportunity in the first place. That said, given the schedule that LSU has coming up the next 7 games, anyone that wins out would have to get serious consideration for the head coaching job. Fundamentally, beating Bama, Ole Miss, @ Florida, @ Arkansas, and @ A&M is what we want our coach to be able to do. I get why folks would have lots of questions about whether or not O could do it consistently (I would as well) but I think you take a chance on someone that just did it rather than on someone that you hope will be able to.

Just to put my two cents in on the Fisher issue, I think Fisher is probably the most risk adverse hire you could make. It is hard to see him failing utterly. Herman, as much as I like him, has more of a chance to crash and burn as he has never had a program of this caliber.
Posted by c on z
Zamunda
Member since Mar 2009
130861 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:45 pm to
quote:

Are you guys open to hiring a Shaw, Patterson, or Stoops (Bob of course, if he gets canned). Swinney isn't going anywhere, but that I can certainly see your AD trying with him.


One of the local radio guys here did say that Stoops and Shaw were the most consistent names(outside of Herman and Fisher) he heard from his sources that would be in the mix.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29103 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

So another undefeated regular season, the conference championships, the major bowl appearances and 3 straight top-10 finishes mean he's not that great of a coach because he hasn't replicated the dominance of 2013. Got it.
Look, I'm just saying that recruiting and special players go a long way (see Miles), and Jimbo looks (to me) to be going downhill (like Miles).

In 2013 the nation was shocked by Winston, and they dominated. In 2014 the novelty had worn off, they still won but several mediocre teams came very close to knocking them off. They were literally seven plays away from a losing season, then Oregon exposed them. 2015, good record but again struggled against not 1, not 2, but 3 teams with 3-9 records (and they lost one of them)!. And now this year is looking shakier than last.

At what point do you guys recognize what's going on? This is worse than the pro-Miles crew.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29103 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

If 14 games aren't sufficient to give an accurate representation of Jimbo's coaching skills, why are the 16 games Orgeron will have coached between USC and LSU (as an interim) any more inidicative of his abilities as a coach?
Because you are comparing the absolute best 14 games of Jimbo's career vs. the most recent of Orgeron's.
Posted by glaucon
New Orleans, LA
Member since Aug 2008
5292 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

One of the local radio guys here did say that Stoops and Shaw were the most consistent names(outside of Herman and Fisher) he heard from his sources that would be in the mix.


Trent Johnson has made me never want to hire a west coast coach in general more or less a Stanford coach ever again. Outside of that non-rational fear, I think there would have to be questions about whether or not Shaw would fit in here and how great he would be at SEC recruiting. He might be fine and he is a good coach but Palo Alto is about as culturally distance from Baton Rouge as two places can be while being a part of the same country.

I wouldn't have any reservations with Stoops.
Posted by Cs
Member since Aug 2008
10681 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

I ignore pretty much anything anyone did 10 years ago, except to see if the present is an improvement over the past.


Ignoring a trove of data points simply because they weaken your overall argument is...certainly convenient.

Your time parameters seem quite arbitrary as well. Do you ignore results from 5 years ago? 6 years ago? 7? 8?

Where specifically do you draw the line, and why?

quote:

You and I both know it's hard to compare such things, but let's try it this way. Both took over teams that were 7-6 the year before. Orgeron started off 6-2, Jimbo started off 6-2. That's about as far as we can compare the two being in charge of "big time" programs.


See my above point. You're ignoring data from 10 years ago, but suddenly want to reference data from 6 years ago?


quote:

That's because they gave the interim gig to the most qualified guy.



My argument wasn't trying to justify why Orgeron should or should not have been given the interim position - it was about Orgeron receiving special consideration for the permanent job.

If Orgeron goes undefeated and gets the head coaching job, it's because he went undefeated - not because of what he did at USC, and not because of what he did at Ole Miss. It's all about what he's going to do over the next 8 weeks.

Other coaches on the staff wouldn't be given the time of day if they had the same opportunity and produced the same results.


quote:

What do you think is the reason he is being given a look, then, if not "perceived or actual competency"?


I think it's abundantly obvious why he's being given a look.
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 2:56 pm
Posted by therick711
South
Member since Jan 2008
26130 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

I wouldn't have any reservations with Stoops.



I'm just not sure LSU wants OU's Les Miles. How many of his brothers are we going to have to let him put on staff? Does he have a son we're going to need to put on staff now?
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29103 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

cas4t
What's funny?

How can you possibly compare the careers of Jimbo and O? You can't. They've taken totally different paths through totally different scenarios.

All we can say is that one guy looks like his best days are behind him, and the other guy is Ed Orgeron.
Posted by therick711
South
Member since Jan 2008
26130 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

All we can say is that one guy looks like his best days are behind him, and the other guy is Ed Orgeron.




Yep, that's the conclusion we can draw! One guy couldn't possibly do worse and one guy has very little margin to do better. The best candidate is the one who couldn't do worse! LOGIC!
Posted by WiscyTiger
Bear Lake, WI
Member since Nov 2008
1430 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

CEO is the exact opposite of Miles.


They are both CEO style coaches (or in Miles case, should have been). They both need good OCs and DCs to do their jobs, and both can recruit well.

Difference is in Coach O's case, he knows his role and would let his coaches coach. I would be a little worried if O wanted to keep Ensminger as OC and not go after a top notch OC.

OP is spot on. We should try for Herman or Jimbo, and then take CEO if they say no (provided we continue to see improvement this year).
Posted by glaucon
New Orleans, LA
Member since Aug 2008
5292 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

I'm just not sure LSU wants OU's Les Miles. How many of his brothers are we going to have to let him put on staff? Does he have a son we're going to need to put on staff now?


He isn't my first choice. That said, if LSU can't get Herman or Fisher, you are going to find it hard to find a better coach than Stoops that you could reasonable imagine (although stoops is pretty far fetched) LSU getting. Fedora is okay but I am not sure is better than Stoops. I like Brohm and P. J. Fleck but both are a crap shoot in comparison to Stoops.
Posted by Cs
Member since Aug 2008
10681 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

How can you possibly compare the careers of Jimbo and O? You can't. .


Yes, actually, you can.

The problem is that you're unwilling to assign any relevance to the career of one of those coaches.
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 3:08 pm
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29103 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

Ignoring a trove of data points simply because they weaken your overall argument is...certainly convenient.
Not convenient, it's smart. Again, see Miles. Great winning percentage, terrible coach in the end. The older the data point, the less relevant it becomes. This is true of nearly everything.
quote:

Your time parameters seem quite arbitrary as well. Do you ignore results from 5 years ago? 6 years ago? 7? 8?
Not arbitrary at all.
quote:

Where specifically do you draw the line, and why?
It's not a hard line. New data points hold more weight than older ones. This is a very common way to analyze data.
quote:

See my above point. You're ignoring data from 10 years ago, but suddenly want to reference data from 6 years ago?
I referenced data from 6 years ago because it's the only way to come close to comparing Jimbo and O as head coaches starting at "down" programs.
quote:

My argument wasn't trying to justify why Orgeron should or should not have been given the interim position - it was about Orgeron receiving special consideration for the permanent job.

If Orgeron goes undefeated and gets the head coaching job, it's because he went undefeated - not because of what he did at USC, and not because of what he did at Ole Miss. It's all about what he's going to do over the next 8 weeks.

Other coaches on the staff wouldn't be given the time of day if they had the same opportunity and produced the same results.
He's not receiving "special" consideration, it's just consideration. And I have to disagree again, because ANYONE who could take LSU through this season's gauntlet undefeated would receive strong consideration. And the reason none of the other coaches were given the opportunity is because, like I said, O was most qualified.
quote:

I think it's abundantly obvious why he's being given a look.
Because he has experience and performed well in his most recent HC position?
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29103 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

Yes, actually, you can.
OK, let's do it.

Records going back to last game:
Jimbo 0-1
CEO 1-0

Records going back 5 games:
Jimbo 3-2
CEO 4-1

Records going back 10 games:
Jimbo 6-4
CEO 7-3

Records going back 20 games:
Jimbo 14-6
CEO 9-11


We have to jump back to 2007 before Orgeron's most recent record gets worse than Jimbo's. And what does that tell us? Not a damned thing.

quote:

The problem is that you're unwilling to assign any relevance to the career of one of those coaches.
No, the problem is you're assigning too much relevance to what happened a decade ago.
Posted by EvrybodysAllAmerican
Member since Apr 2013
12815 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:23 pm to
Stoops to LSU is pretty far fetched, but some of you turning your nose up at him is laughable.
Posted by glaucon
New Orleans, LA
Member since Aug 2008
5292 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

Stoops to LSU is pretty far fetched, but some of you turning your nose up at him is laughable.


Pretty much. He has won the Big 12 more times than he has not won the Big 12.
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 3:31 pm
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
72136 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

All we can say is that one guy looks like his best days are behind him


Posted by nvasil1
Hellinois
Member since Oct 2009
17705 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

All we can say is that one guy looks like his best days are behind him

He made it to a NY6 game last season.

So is this conclusion based on 5 games this season with an abysmal defense?
Posted by CRAZY 4 LSU
Member since Apr 2006
16903 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

All we can say is that one guy looks like his best days are behind him, and the other guy is Ed Orgeron.


Jimbo Fisher is five years younger than Orgeron... younger than when Miles took over at LSU, and younger than when Saban took over at Alabama.

Not that this idiotic statement needed a response.
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 3:33 pm
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
72136 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 3:33 pm to
You're discounting so many other factors. I don't even feel like going any further, because you're purposely being obtuse in order to get your point across.

This is not a situation that can be simplified to only wins and losses. Holy shite.

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