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re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:44 pm to
Posted by jamsmiley
Zachary La
Member since Nov 2008
660 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:44 pm to
i read through AFFC the fastest of all the books i think it gets a bad rap
Posted by Finkle is Einhorn
Member since Sep 2011
4384 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:45 pm to
Exactly. I agree completely. Brienne's meanderings are done for a purpose. You are getting the history of Westeros in huge chunks, you are getting a feel for what is happening out in the real world away from KL, you will see characters that you will come across later. They are some of the most thematically rich and subtle in the whole series. There is no "badass" action, but the themes and the arc's conclusion are really at the core of the series itself.
Posted by ffishstik
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2007
4187 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:56 pm to
I dunno, I read through ADWD pretty quickly. After waiting for over half a decade for the damn thing, I was a little amped.
Posted by Finkle is Einhorn
Member since Sep 2011
4384 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:59 pm to
Some of Daenerys' story in Meereen lacks because I'm assuming most of y'all watched the show then started reading so you already knew a major twist that is revealed in Meereen which is Artsan being exposed as Barristan Selmy. EDIT: sorry but this happened in aSoS not aDwD

But there's still lots going on in Meereen because GRRM wrote himself into a corner when he cut out the 5 yr fast forward and had to let Dany stick around to let her dragons grow. She still fricks Daario to death, gets married, has an assassination attempt, learns the political side of ruling, etc.

And to relieve himself of this box he had written himself into GRRM had to come up with Barristan's pov and Quentyn's attempt to tame the dragons which I think will be a badass scene in the show if they lock the dragons up and aren't seen for a season. Then when they break into the dragons lair they should be huge and breathtaking.

It also set up what could be the most epic battle ever in Meereen and I'm anticipating a Blackwater-esque battle there
This post was edited on 4/25/14 at 3:49 pm
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

After a review of the GNC, just how decimated is the North as a whole?...How much damage was done to Robb's army after TRW? Then add in Dustin, Manderly et al @ Winterfell...

And Jon let in a shite load of Wildings after Stannis's route @ the wall...i think those forces are in decent shape, better than medium...am I way off?


I think in this feudal kind of warfare where troops are called up from the population through a system nobles of varying rank right through to the "little folk" as they call it here, there are always more people to draw from. Especially when you're talking about an area as big as the North of Westeros.

Kind of like Alfred fighting the Danes - he' have pretty much his entire army wiped out but was able to escape and later raised another to fight and defeat them. (Actually Napoleon kind of did the same thing but that was a bit different due to the time frame and the manner of gathering men).

(To be honest I always thought it was a bit far fetched that the army with Rob, especially those outside of he hall) could all be slaughtered like that with the types of weapons used at that time . But that's what we were told happened so we have to accept that it did).
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134661 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 6:34 pm to
quote:

To be honest I always thought it was a bit far fetched that the army with Rob, especially those outside of he hall) could all be slaughtered like that with the types of weapons used at that time

How??? They were ambushed and unarmed for the most part, as well as under the auspices of guest right, and drunk and feasting
Posted by lsuchip30
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2007
484 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 6:57 pm to
As it relates to military strength in the Seven Kingdoms - I think that the Lannister Army is in worse shape than a lot of people think. Rob did a number on them before their forced went to KL. They tried to raise another army in the West with another a Lannister (some cousin of Tywin and Kevan I think) and Rob decimated them. The Vale is at full strength, but what is full strength for them - 20,000? 30,000? Can't be more than that. And, I also recall Doran speaking in either AFfC of ADwD and saying that Dorne doesn't have as many spears as the rest of the seven kingdoms think they do. Maybe 20,000 there, even at full strength.
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 8:12 pm to
quote:

How??? They were ambushed and unarmed for the most part, as well as under the auspices of guest right, and drunk and feasting


A couple of reasons (these are all in my opinion of course):

1- I feel that an army as experienced and successful as Rob's has been up to this point would have good discipline and a good structure of leadership at various levels (ie: good men in what today would be called NCO's, Jr. officers and officers) to respond to even surprise attacks eventually.

2- As weapons, we're dealing with things like swords and maybe spears and axes. If even a few of the men were over to overcome their attackers they could have gotten their weapons and worked from there. Once they had a few armed men they could have formed shield walls and at least impart some damage on their attackers.

3 - If the Frey's were going for a situation where there was literally a mass attack at the same time from thousands of their soldiers then all of these people would have to have been told and prepared for the attack. It just seems like it would be impossible to keep that a secret. Heck, when more than two people know something a secret can hardly be kept much less thousands. Especially if some of the soilders were from the Riverlands and from the North. Somebody would have given up the plot.

4.Same goes for having to conceal thousands of weapons without being discovered. Just doesn't seem do-able to me.

Now I think that Roose also got a lot of Stark men killed by leading them into a trap (at Duskendale?) while holding his own men in reserve in such a way that they blocked the exit of the Stark men. That one may be a bit more plausible.

This post was edited on 4/25/14 at 8:37 pm
Posted by SoGaFan
Member since Jan 2008
5956 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 8:30 pm to
Didn't they drop the tents down and set them on fire? ALso, wouldn't they have likely poisoned the food or ale a well?
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 8:57 pm to
In the show they definitely showed them dropping the tents and setting them on fire in some instances. Don't really remember in the books. That would also seem to kind of tip a few people off - only Stark soilders would go under the tents?

Never thought about poison in the food or drink. Of course they'd have to be very careful only the Stark people ate or drank that stuff.

I feel I'm kind of overstating my view of this. It wasn't a deal breaker of any kind for me. I just had to apply a little more suspension of disbelief to that part of the books.

Now, for the attacks on Brienne's story - I love her character and her story. I don't agree with those that say it was dragging (like Danny's definitely was).
Posted by ladytiger118
Member since Aug 2009
20922 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 9:15 pm to
Poisoning the food and drink is something I've never thought about before--and we all know Roose "doesn't partake," but perhaps he knew the wine would have some sort of poisoning agent in it that night or something that would slow the Stark men down??
This post was edited on 4/25/14 at 9:15 pm
Posted by DMagic
#ChowderPosse
Member since Aug 2010
50389 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 10:49 pm to
I don't think you're off at all. I think that the north is down relative to before the war but who's to say their true number. I added the wildlings to the l/m category because I consider them weaker than trained armies. Numbers wise they aren't in bad shape and with who knows how many ships under the Manderlys.

I would love it if we got more detailed numbers but alas George has yet to give definitive sums of people. If we were making a list of sizes not relative strength it would be:

Wildlings
Reach
Rock
Vale
Dorne
North
Iron
GC
Freys
Faith Militant


That's just from the descriptions as best I know. They're all just wight fodder in the next book anyhow. The Walking Dead: Westeros
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134661 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 11:52 pm to
I think y'all Are overestimating how important guest right was before the RW.

I mean, Robb was forced to behead one of his strongest bannermen and a distant relation after he violated guest Right, in a sense.

Guest right was sacred , and those who violate it are cursed.
Posted by ladytiger118
Member since Aug 2009
20922 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 9:15 am to
You mean underestimating, not overestimating, right?? The Freys and Boltons are screwed...the Lannisters are already getting back what they deserved
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 9:22 am to
quote:

I would love it if we got more detailed numbers but alas George has yet to give definitive sums of people. If we were making a list of sizes not relative strength it would be:



I'd go with current size:

Reach
Vale
Rock (Robb did a number on them for sure)
Wildings
Dorne
North
Riverlands
Iron
Freys
Golden Company
Faith Militant
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 9:49 am to
Depending on how things play out for Danny, she might have a substantial army soon. Potentially she could have:

- Unsullied
- Former slaves who Barristan has been training
- Part of the forces of the Iron Islands (ships and some warriors)
- One or more sellsword companies.
- Potentially a bunch of Dothraki depending on how the cliff hanger is resolved.

Next questions of course is who has the military leadership. A lot of the people with experience and success have already bit the dust: Robert, Eddard, Robb, Tywin Of those left, Roose has experience and has had success. Stannis has a lot of experience with some success and some failure. Barristan is a great knight but I'm not sure of the extent of his experience leading very large forces. Connington has experience but a mixed record at best. Tyrion has the mind for it but not that much experience especially leading large forces. Jon has some experience but with small numbers. Who else?
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 9:52 am
Posted by ladytiger118
Member since Aug 2009
20922 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Depending on how things play out for Danny, she might have a substantial army soon. Potentially she could have:

- Unsullied
- Former slaves who Barristan has been training
- Part of the forces of the Iron Islands (ships and some warriors)
- One or more sellsword companies.
- Potentially a bunch of Dothraki depending on how the cliff hanger is resolved.


Everyone in Westeros is going to hate her.

quote:

Next questions of course is who has the military leadership

Basically your list...but your forgot to mention Randyl Tarly.
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Basically your list...but your forgot to mention Randyl Tarly.


Yeah. I did forget about him. He is definitely one of the top military guys left around.

I also forgot Jamie. I think he might have the makings of a leader too. He definitely (at this stage in his arc) seems to know what motivates people and what buttons to push to get different people to do what he needs them to do.
Posted by ladytiger118
Member since Aug 2009
20922 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 1:54 pm to
Randyl IMO is going to betray the Tyrells and put his support behind Faegon (assuming the Tyrells won't put their support behind Faegon).

quote:

I also forgot Jamie. I think he might have the makings of a leader too. He definitely (at this stage in his arc) seems to know what motivates people and what buttons to push to get different people to do what he needs them to do.


Jaime is definitely going to be important in the last 2 books...yes, I think Jaime survives TWoW; his story line is nowhere near done.
Posted by BlackleafBaller
Member since Oct 2012
1863 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

Randyl IMO is going to betray the Tyrells and put his support behind Faegon (assuming the Tyrells won't put their support behind Faegon).


Right, supposedly some members of the GC still has friends in the Reach and that Mace may not have as much power as he assumes. I'm assuming they're referring to Tarly.
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