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Started By
Message
re: World Wide Oil Monopoly?
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:52 am to loogaroo
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:52 am to loogaroo
quote:How is our crude different and why wouldn’t it work in our refineries? I’ve always wondered what the science behind that is. And is it something our refineries could be adjusted to handle?
Our refineries aren't set up for most of our crude.
This post was edited on 4/13/26 at 9:54 am
1
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:00 am to Henry Jones Jr
quote:
How is ours different and why wouldn’t they work?
Most of refineries were built to handle heavy crude, and we haven't built a new one in fifty years until now.
quote:
Trump says U.S. will build first refinery in 50 years with investment from India’s Reliance Industries
quote:
The refinery will process 1.2 billion barrels of U.S. light shale oil, valued at $125 billion, and produce 50 billion gallons of refined products worth $175 billion.
“The United States has a surplus of light shale oil but a shortage of refining capacity designed to process it,” said Trey Griggs, president of America First Refining. The refinery, he added, would strengthen the domestic supply chain.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/trump-us-oil-refinery-reliance-ambani-texas-india-shale-wti.html
quote:
And is it something our refineries could be adjusted to handle?
We cannot afford to shut down any refineries. They are all maxed out to keep up. Look what happens to gas prices when a major hurricane threatens to shut down Gulf Coast refineries.
This post was edited on 4/13/26 at 10:02 am
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:04 am to idlewatcher
quote:
I've been thinking about that as well with particular regard to China. They are unsustainable without Iranian oil now that VNZ crude is no longer an option.
Kind of surprised there hasn't been more discussion about China and their response to this blockade. There isn't another Iran that has million of available barrels sitting around that isn't already spoken for. Regardless, hope this puts Iran in compliance soon.
Wasn't the US cutting off the oil supply one of the main reasons why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor?
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:07 am to TigerPlate
quote:
You really believe this.
Pretty easy to when one lived it.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:21 am to loogaroo
quote:How long would that process theoretically take to make those refineries compatible with our light shade crude?
We cannot afford to shut down any refineries. They are all maxed out to keep up. Look what happens to gas prices when a major hurricane threatens to shut down Gulf Coast refineries.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:22 am to Judnnc
quote:
global market decides price of oil. Drill all day. Won't matter.
Basically it isn't costing US oil companies more to make the gas in the US but they will make record profits this year bc other countries are having to pay more for their oil?
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:23 am to Tiger Prawn
quote:Literally thought about this the other day. There’s no way they will take us cutting off their oil supply laying down.
Wasn't the US cutting off the oil supply one of the main reasons why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor?
Posted on 4/15/26 at 7:57 am to ragincajun03
In the big picture, almost all U.S. shale oil comes from drilling since shale production is basically a form of drilling. It's all part of the same process.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:30 am to TigerPlate
[quote]MONOPOLY ?[/quote
With oil and gas the important thing is who moves it around and makes it available, Public Big Oil is multinational. There are no US state-owned oil companies like those in China. Interesting move in 2025 was China selling their share of GoM leases to UK-based companies.
With oil and gas the important thing is who moves it around and makes it available, Public Big Oil is multinational. There are no US state-owned oil companies like those in China. Interesting move in 2025 was China selling their share of GoM leases to UK-based companies.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:34 am to mtb010
quote:
Oil is literally the life line to every economy,
The primary catalyst for the actions of imperial Japan in the late 1930’s up to 12/7/1941.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:42 am to TigerPlate
quote:
In the big picture, almost all U.S. shale oil comes from drilling since shale production is basically a form of drilling. It's all part of the same process.
Not following this comment at all.
Advances in horizontal drilling and shale fracking have dramatically increased US oil production. Most of this occurred over the last 20 years.
Horizontal drilling was around for longer, and fracking was around for longer, but the ability to effectively combine and use the technologies to unlock productive shale zones is fairly recent.
Kind of interesting (maybe scary) to think how things would be if this had not happened. One could argue that this technology re-shaped the world.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:47 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
I just wonder why we can't put a cap on the price for domestic oil at times like this.
You can't regulate trade to the point where an unrefined commodity is specifically destined to end up in a specific location.
All you would do is create a middle man price gouging situation.
A false market is not a solution to legitimate supply and demand price indexing. Our producers would get screwed along with the end consumer.
This post was edited on 4/15/26 at 8:50 am
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:55 am to Evolved Simian
quote:Thank you. I was shaking my head at the amazing veil clouding people's understanding of market dynamics.
This fundamental lack of understanding of the economics of the world's (by far) most important global energy commodity is why it's so easy for Americans to be propagandized.
Just to simplify, if we cut off the oil to everyone else,
(A) who is going to buy American manufactured products if we shut down their economies?
(B) It is typically less costly and faster to export oil (say, from Texas) to a foreign country than to move it via pipeline (say, from Texas) or ship to a refinery on the east coast.
(C) If global prices are significantly higher than domestic prices, companies will export to maximize profit for their shareholders.
(D) A great amount of the oil produced in the U.S. is "light and sweet," which is easier to sell to foreign refineries than it is to adapt U.S. facilities to use it.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 9:06 am to idlewatcher
quote:
quote:
Let me play Devil's advocate to your point. Oil is literally the life line to every economy, without it, there is mass death and civil unrest. If we starve out a nation that has nuclear capability, then what do they have to lose by striking?
quote:
I've been thinking about that as well with particular regard to China. They are unsustainable without Iranian oil now that VNZ crude is no longer an option.
Kind of surprised there hasn't been more discussion about China and their response to this blockade. There isn't another Iran that has million of available barrels sitting around that isn't already spoken for. Regardless, hope this puts Iran in compliance soon.
It makes China put even more pressure on Iran to take a deal thus making any other decision impossible. China also no longer getting heavily discounted oil in what many consider a paper tiger economy of theirs is going to be a very difficult thing for them to navigate.
I believe Trump said China has agreed to stop sending arms to Iran. If thats true then China has essentially abandoned Iran for the time being. I wonder what deal we have made for China to agree to that. Maybe they buy our crude but not at the price they were paying?
Posted on 4/15/26 at 9:30 am to Chip82
quote:
You can't regulate trade to the point where an unrefined commodity is specifically destined to end up in a specific location.
it isn't costing us to more to get the oil out or refine it correct? we could still export at market price...basically this is what i am saying is happening. Production cost haven't gone up in the US to refine the oil we are getting domestically but the price is reflecting what the worldwide market is.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 9:36 am to BabysArmHoldingApple
quote:
Advances in horizontal drilling and shale fracking have dramatically increased US oil production. Most of this occurred over the last 20 years.
Bingo. That was a bigger driver in US oil production accelerating the way it did than any single person who sat in the White House during the ramp up.
quote:
Kind of interesting (maybe scary) to think how things would be if this had not happened. One could argue that this technology re-shaped the world.
I think it did.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 10:23 am to ragincajun03
quote:
One could argue that this technology re-shaped the world.
It definitely reshaped the Hubbert Peak Oil Curve.
But, I have to wonder how many people excited about fracking know that production is short ~ 5 years vs 35 for a traditional vertical.
Posted on 4/28/26 at 3:34 pm to keks tadpole
Nuclear War is assured mutual destruction. There is no winner if nations exchange nuclear attacks on each other. With the nuclear armed submarines ever present there is no first strike supremacy.
The Chinese and many other natons will not be locked out of oil. They will however have to pay fair market value prices. No more Iranian discount for China. Cuba is in a crisis situation in that they are actually starving for oil shipments. This is what will ultimately overturn the communist regime that has governed that island for 50 + years.
The Chinese and many other natons will not be locked out of oil. They will however have to pay fair market value prices. No more Iranian discount for China. Cuba is in a crisis situation in that they are actually starving for oil shipments. This is what will ultimately overturn the communist regime that has governed that island for 50 + years.
Posted on 4/28/26 at 4:00 pm to mtb010
quote:
If we starve out a nation that has nuclear capability, then what do they have to lose by striking?
Existence.
The display of military force in Venezuela and Iran isn’t without impressive metrics. Remember Venezuela had an aerial defense network supposedly specifically designed to prevent US 5th generation air assets from getting in and we did so in less than an hour. Iran reminded the world that our Navy can still do work, both striking and removing Irans ability to make war and blockading one of the busiest waterways in the world.
How is China going to project force in Iran conventionally? With their one aircraft carrier? Overfly Russia or India? How do they intend to deal with advanced US assets in the theater?
The answer is they can’t. And a nuclear option doesn’t help. Say you nuke the US blockade fleet. You just rendered the waterways impassible for the foreseeable future. So that doesn’t give you oil. And the clock is ticking on your reserves. Meanwhile the US can give battle anywhere at the time of our choosing, even if we lost the fleet in the gulf. That’s assuming you could successfully execute that without us intercepting the missile.
Does China appeal to Russia at that point? Where does Moscow want to end up? We’ve seen their lack of success in Ukraine. The Russians aren’t fools.
If yall have never read Red Storm Rising, you should. Replace China with Russia and you have the exact scenario the OP is proposing. Book does a great job of all the reasons why nukes aren’t an option by a modern superpower. Might be time for a reread myself.
This post was edited on 4/28/26 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 4/28/26 at 4:35 pm to kingbob
quote:
However, that really downplays just how much oil is being produced elsewhere: Canada, Mexico, Nigeria, Indonesia, The North Sea, Russia, etc.
Canada can't do a damn thing with theirs except send it to us. Or at least the vast majority of it.
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