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re: WI early vote analysis
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:58 pm to Covingtontiger77
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:58 pm to Covingtontiger77
All that looks REALLY good, except:
Just stabbing here... let's say a 3-1 advantage of Biden voters as these "new" voters (hateful douchebags who get their news from Steven Colbert and Huffington Post), that's an 86,949 to 28,983 = 57,966 advantage for the Democrats.
Didn't Trump win WI in '16 by ~20,000?
I know that analysis/estimating I did was a small part of a big picture.. but
quote:So 7.6% of 1,525,415 is 115,932.
Early Return Ballots:1,525,415
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 7.6
Just stabbing here... let's say a 3-1 advantage of Biden voters as these "new" voters (hateful douchebags who get their news from Steven Colbert and Huffington Post), that's an 86,949 to 28,983 = 57,966 advantage for the Democrats.
Didn't Trump win WI in '16 by ~20,000?
I know that analysis/estimating I did was a small part of a big picture.. but
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 8:00 pm
2
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:58 pm to Covingtontiger77
feels like homework, and I have been drinking today. Explain it to me like I was 5.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:59 pm to JPinLondon
Trump ground game is boss.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:02 pm to tWildcat
quote:
Damn. Around Milwaukee is very red.
Those are the WOW counties. They are the traditional GOP stronghold in Wisconsin. Think Mitt Romney establishment GOP types. Trump won the state getting worse margins there than Romney had in '12. Trump's got a 90+% approval rating from Republicans. These people are coming home for Trump. Would not shock me if Trump won Wisky by 2% or so. Dems can't get much more out of Milwaukee and Madison.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:05 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Age: 18-29 3%
quote:
50-64 26%
65+ 36%
Haha, Trump wins.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:08 pm to Covingtontiger77
The high school diploma seems under represented. They need to show up on Tuesday.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:09 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
let's say a 3-1 advantage of Biden voters as these "new" voters (hateful douchebags who get their news from Steven Colbert and Huffington Post), that's an 86,949 to 28,983 = 57,966 advantage for the Democrats.
Where are you getting Biden winning 75% of new registrations?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:09 pm to DallasTiger11
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:09 pm to Covingtontiger77
A: 18-29 3% /
30-39 7%
Game over for Biden!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:12 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
18-29 3%
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:13 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
Where are you getting Biden winning 75% of new registrations?
Yeah, I want to know the answer to this as well.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:15 pm to Covingtontiger77
Out of curiosity, what is the methodology here? Wisconsin does not have partisan registration, so what method is used to determine this?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:15 pm to LSUnation78
quote:
Yea, but its only huge if the increase I nearly voters doesn't impact day of voting.
Right, it somewhat negates the expected election day advantage we were suppose to hold.
However, Dems are more likely (than Rs) to blow off voting on election day due to long lines, bad weather, etc. IMO
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:16 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
18-29 3%
The kids AREN'T SHOWING UP.
I keep saying that Biden's demographic numbers are going to lead to very low turnout. He will have less overall votes nationwide than Hillary did.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:17 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:sheer stupidity
Where are you getting Biden winning 75% of new registrations?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:17 pm to baconwaffle
It can be found at the county levels.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:18 pm to Covingtontiger77
If these numbers are legit, I don’t see the socialists winning on Election Day.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:20 pm to Pelican fan99
quote:
If that is even close to accurate how is it not going to be a total landslide in Wisconsin?
Correct. If this is solid data, Trump has Wisconsin in the bag.
It almost seems too good to be true.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:30 pm to KCT
quote:
Correct. If this is solid data, Trump has Wisconsin in the bag.
Exactly. I'm almost scared to believe these numbers are accurate. I just can't believe that the Republicans have a 44% to 36% early voting advantage.
Does anyone know what the early voting number for Reps vs Dems was in 2016?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:32 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
Where are you getting Biden winning 75% of new registrations?
It a guess, and I thought I was clear enough in saying that.
How many people turned 18 in Wisconsin in the last four years? With the way the Leftists own the schools, I'd guess that age-range votes 6-1 anti-Trump.
If the remainder of new registrations were 3-2 favoring Trump, that's still a pretty solid edge to the bad guys.
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