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Started By
Message
re: Why the Models are all way overstated .....and must be revised
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:52 pm to DMAN1968
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:52 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
I know...for a fact...that outside of New Orleans the hospitals are handling their business. Even New Orleans is managing the load.
I know this to be true also. To such an extent that some hospitals are canceling RN’s shifts.
0
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:54 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
I don't know about overall cases but total dead is darned close for each state. LA's hospitalized and ventilator use is almost to the point
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:56 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
A great many places are on a trajectory of 300% hospital case growth a week
My definition for "great many places" and yours must not be the same...or link me to the site you get this information. I'm not seeing it in that many places.
Even New York's hospitalization numbers stabilized somewhat about a week ago and have shown decreases for the last few days.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:58 pm to Cosmo
Wrong. Damned peons all ADD and Shiite. Lookie, a squirrel. Companies everywhere excited about all the new plants to be built bringing manufacturing back from China.
Y'all don't fricken realize how Clinton/Newtron actually paid companies to shutdown and call themselves mothballed for 5 years, before demolishing, while the moved that manufacturing elsewhere. Then can ACA (Obamacare) with its tax forcing medical device manufacturers to move overseas.
Y'all don't fricken realize how Clinton/Newtron actually paid companies to shutdown and call themselves mothballed for 5 years, before demolishing, while the moved that manufacturing elsewhere. Then can ACA (Obamacare) with its tax forcing medical device manufacturers to move overseas.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:00 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
My definition for "great many places" and yours much not be the same...or link me to the site you get this information. I'm not seeing it in that many places.
They all are because the model says they all are.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:09 pm to TiketheMiger
quote:
You do realize there are new models out just about weekly using current data?
Not hing changed in their updates so far
LINK to updates etc
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:09 pm to longwayfromLA
Then why are nurses hours being cut and nursing floors are not even close to being full of patients? That’s as of today in at least one large hospital in Jackson, MS. Where’s this massive rush to the hospital doors?
Erm...it’s not happening.
Sum ting wong.
Erm...it’s not happening.
Sum ting wong.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:13 pm to FlyingTiger1955
quote:
MIT data scientist posting on a message board, I don’t think so.
I do not know why you don't....I reference it on several older posts....I am a Baton Rouge High Grad ('61) who was in Tiger Stadium for Billy Cannon's return! and am an outrageous Tiger and Coach O fan!!
Will be glad to forward a resume.....I love all the TD boards...
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:13 pm to MississippiLSUfan
quote:
Then why are nurses hours being cut and nursing floors are not even close to being full of patients?
Because LongwayfromLA is in the New York area...he seems to think this is going on across the country rather than in regional spots.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:19 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
My definition for "great many places" and yours much not be the same...or link me to the site you get this information. I'm not seeing it in that many places.
LINK
This website houses a wealth of state-level tracking data including historical information, captured daily about COVID hospitalizations by state. I'd wager that 3 out 4 states have had their case triple in the last 8 days. You can spot check for yourself. NY, LA, AL, FL, PA, OH, NC, MS, MA, CO, CA, have all had over 300% increases in COVID hospitalizations over the last couple of weeks. Some well over 300% Which places are you not seeing this steep increase in hospitalizations?.
quote:
Even New York's hospitalization numbers stabilized somewhat about a week ago and have shown decreases for the last few days.
In NY, hospitalizations from COVID-19 have gone up by about 800% since the 24th. In the last 3 days, it's been a new 3K people every day who will hang around for 10 days in hospitals that are already full.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:23 pm to DMAN1968
I was being kind to him when I said not even close to being full. Half full or less is probably more accurate. And the ER is damn near a ghost town compared to pre Covid. Nobody wants to go to a fricking ER right now unless they absolutely have to go to one. So now the ER is really doing ER shite all of the time. No more drug seekers and hypochondriacs. Just folks that would rather be anywhere else. Like it was built for.
But this massive influx of Covid? Nope. Mostly those are secondary findings and not the primary complaint. Strange, right?
I think so, too.
But this massive influx of Covid? Nope. Mostly those are secondary findings and not the primary complaint. Strange, right?
I think so, too.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:26 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
Then why are nurses hours being cut and nursing floors are not even close to being full of patients?
Because LongwayfromLA is in the New York area...he seems to think this is going on across the country rather than in regional spots.
I'm aware that NY is several weeks ahead of most places. Systems across the country have had to balance the timing of shutting down elective services to create capacity with accurately predicting when exactly the COVID patients will begin taking over the hospital. It sucks. I will say that every hospital in NY is looking for and paying significant premiums for healthcare providers of all stripes and state licensure is no longer something NY care's about up here. For some that might be an opttion to explore.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:32 pm to longwayfromLA
No thanks. I’ve been there and worked there. I saw how y’all do things. Never again. frick that. I’ll stay retired and I’ll wring my wife’s neck before I ask her to do that. Your system is more of a disease than any disease.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:36 pm to MississippiLSUfan
quote:
But this massive influx of Covid? Nope. Mostly those are secondary findings and not the primary complaint. Strange, right?
I think so, too.
I don't think so....I think a ton of people have had it and are walking around with either a positive without knowing it, or antibodies when that test finally comes out....this has been with is for awhile.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:43 pm to longwayfromLA
I was looking at this website for New York City:
LINK
I believe you are giving me a link for the entire state. Are the numbers from the NYC site correct?
LINK
I believe you are giving me a link for the entire state. Are the numbers from the NYC site correct?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:17 am to MississippiLSUfan
quote:
No thanks. I’ve been there and worked there. I saw how y’all do things. Never again. frick that. I’ll stay retired and I’ll wring my wife’s neck before I ask her to do that. Your system is more of a disease than any disease.
I’m doing the things that need to be done right here. They have plenty of people up there to take care of that hot spot. It’s eventually going to get worse here. But it’s not like they’re saying. It’s very manageable. That doesn’t mean that it will remain that way. I know how you feel about the time that you worked up there. I’m needed here. This is where I’ll work.
This has nothing to do with my neck.
As we both are aware, a little light “wringing” can be a good thing.
This is just to let you know that I’m occasionally reading.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:46 am to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
I hope you're right, but 1,322 people died today supposedly from CV. That's a lot for one day, and it's still trending upward.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:00 am to BeepNode
quote:
I hope you're right, but 1,322 people died today supposedly from CV. That's a lot for one day, and it's still trending upward.
The deaths will continue to increase but most likely be less than half the forecast...THEY WILL STILL INCREASE for a while
What concerns me most though is the forecast demand for hospitasls esp ICU beds is driving people crazy and causing unnecessary shutdown of othe important operations etc at hospitals....those need to be addressed in the Model updates ASAP so medical care, hospital jobs etc can return
Also, once the ridiculous TDS impact on HCQ - the anti malarial drug is removed - all these rates will decline substantially...
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:16 am to deathvalleytiger10
Re your hoping I am correct...this just came in!!
Hospitalizations way below model forecast - LINK
Hospitalizations way below model forecast - LINK
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 1:17 am
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