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Started By
Message
Why the Models are all way overstated .....and must be revised
Posted on 4/3/20 at 8:58 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 8:58 pm
I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years. Many have been similar to the types of "death/survival" rates being predicted here.
1. Models are only as good as the data that set the parameters/assumptions
2. All of these models are based only on the earliest data
3. OBVIOUSLY, All of the earliest data were only from severely ill patients - those most in need of hospitalization, with other medical conditions....diabetes, obesity, weak immune systems..
4. Later data now show by far the majority people who are infected with the Wuhan Virus are asymptomatic and fend off the disease with their own immune systems or less heroic treatment than intubation etc...
5. I have reviewed the predicted vs. actual state by state forecasts from these models -- while they are seemingly relatively close in their predictions of the deaths, they are almost always high (and very high!!) in their predictions and CRITICALLY OVERSTATING THE DEMANDS ON HOSPITALS!!
They MUST BE IMMEDIATELY REVISED with actual data reflecting the TOTAL POPULATION, not just those with weak immune systems before these early WORST CASE PROJECTIONS CAUSE AN ECONOMIC DEPRESSION that makes another Great depression real.....
1. Models are only as good as the data that set the parameters/assumptions
2. All of these models are based only on the earliest data
3. OBVIOUSLY, All of the earliest data were only from severely ill patients - those most in need of hospitalization, with other medical conditions....diabetes, obesity, weak immune systems..
4. Later data now show by far the majority people who are infected with the Wuhan Virus are asymptomatic and fend off the disease with their own immune systems or less heroic treatment than intubation etc...
5. I have reviewed the predicted vs. actual state by state forecasts from these models -- while they are seemingly relatively close in their predictions of the deaths, they are almost always high (and very high!!) in their predictions and CRITICALLY OVERSTATING THE DEMANDS ON HOSPITALS!!
They MUST BE IMMEDIATELY REVISED with actual data reflecting the TOTAL POPULATION, not just those with weak immune systems before these early WORST CASE PROJECTIONS CAUSE AN ECONOMIC DEPRESSION that makes another Great depression real.....
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:02 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Can we trust you? Trust is rare in the new normal.
I upvote ya anyways
I upvote ya anyways
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:04 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Its becoming clear this is about weakening country as much as possible
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:06 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
PREACH PREACH PREACH. I just wish I could tell you who to preach it to that would listen.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:06 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Its becoming clear this is about weakening country as much as possible
Why would Trump allow that?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:07 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Garbage in Garbage out. New York has friked all the models. NO is not great either. Models are off bigly.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:09 pm to StringedInstruments
That I don't get ... maybe he's "allowing time" ie April 30 to say he played their way and now they'll play his?? IDK. He sounded way more frustrated today and upset with the economic side of it.
And side note .. why would you EVER want to be a reporter in the WH pressers with him??? You KNOW you're likely to get chewed up and spit out.
And side note .. why would you EVER want to be a reporter in the WH pressers with him??? You KNOW you're likely to get chewed up and spit out.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:12 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Hope you are correct.
Please tell me where I can review the data you point to in item #4.
Please tell me where I can review the data you point to in item #4.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:12 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
Why would Trump allow that?
He is being controlled by the CDC and the media to a certain extent at the moment. But this will change soon.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:14 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
quote:
I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:16 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
Why would Trump allow that?
Considering his uncle was a scientist and he’s really good at science himself how is he so easily fooled by all these doctors he puts on HIS podium?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:17 pm to cwill
Defend your virus cocksucker.
Don't let them take your joy!
Don't let them take your joy!
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:17 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
quote:
1. Models are only as good as the data that set the parameters/assumptions 2. All of these models are based only on the earliest data 3. OBVIOUSLY, All of the earliest data were only from severely ill patients - those most in need of hospitalization, with other medical conditions....diabetes, obesity, weak immune systems.. 4. Later data now show by far the majority people who are infected with the Wuhan Virus are asymptomatic and fend off the disease with their own immune systems or less heroic treatment than intubation etc... 5. I have reviewed the predicted vs. actual state by state forecasts from these models -- while they are seemingly relatively close in their predictions of the deaths, they are almost always high (and very high!!) in their predictions and CRITICALLY OVERSTATING THE DEMANDS ON HOSPITALS!!
Truth. And the few positives we have here seem to come way faster than the negatives. frickery abounds.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:18 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Saw something similar to this on Tucker tonight.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:19 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:19 pm to gthog61
quote:
Defend your virus cocksucker.
Don't let them take your joy!
You seem like a very angry, sad, very little man. Are you ok?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:20 pm to KingOrange
JBE is posting that the models say NOLA will have 2500 admits per day beginning in May. WTF?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:22 pm to cwill
I said it above, maybe he's trying it their way and will soon do it his way. If he didn't at least try their way, he'd be chastised. IDK. I'm grasping.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:24 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Trump: “The professionals did the modeling. I was never involved in a model…at least this kind of a model.”
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:24 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
quote:
I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years. Many have been similar to the types of "death/survival" rates being predicted here.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:27 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
As an old school IT guy, here’s the simple fact about computer models. GIGO... garbage in garbage out. Between this and the climate change bullshite we are drowning in garbage.
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