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Why the Models are all way overstated .....and must be revised

Posted on 4/3/20 at 8:58 pm
Posted by TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Boonies, MN
Member since Sep 2019
753 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 8:58 pm
I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years. Many have been similar to the types of "death/survival" rates being predicted here.
1. Models are only as good as the data that set the parameters/assumptions
2. All of these models are based only on the earliest data
3. OBVIOUSLY, All of the earliest data were only from severely ill patients - those most in need of hospitalization, with other medical conditions....diabetes, obesity, weak immune systems..
4. Later data now show by far the majority people who are infected with the Wuhan Virus are asymptomatic and fend off the disease with their own immune systems or less heroic treatment than intubation etc...
5. I have reviewed the predicted vs. actual state by state forecasts from these models -- while they are seemingly relatively close in their predictions of the deaths, they are almost always high (and very high!!) in their predictions and CRITICALLY OVERSTATING THE DEMANDS ON HOSPITALS!!

They MUST BE IMMEDIATELY REVISED with actual data reflecting the TOTAL POPULATION, not just those with weak immune systems before these early WORST CASE PROJECTIONS CAUSE AN ECONOMIC DEPRESSION that makes another Great depression real.....



This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:10 pm
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
45986 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:02 pm to
Can we trust you? Trust is rare in the new normal.

I upvote ya anyways
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:03 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120172 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:04 pm to
Its becoming clear this is about weakening country as much as possible
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36703 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:06 pm to
PREACH PREACH PREACH. I just wish I could tell you who to preach it to that would listen.
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
18330 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:06 pm to
quote:

Its becoming clear this is about weakening country as much as possible


Why would Trump allow that?
Posted by KingOrange
Mayfair
Member since Aug 2018
8686 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:07 pm to
Garbage in Garbage out. New York has friked all the models. NO is not great either. Models are off bigly.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36703 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:09 pm to
That I don't get ... maybe he's "allowing time" ie April 30 to say he played their way and now they'll play his?? IDK. He sounded way more frustrated today and upset with the economic side of it.

And side note .. why would you EVER want to be a reporter in the WH pressers with him??? You KNOW you're likely to get chewed up and spit out.
Posted by deathvalleytiger10
Member since Sep 2009
7555 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:12 pm to
Hope you are correct.

Please tell me where I can review the data you point to in item #4.
Posted by KingOrange
Mayfair
Member since Aug 2018
8686 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:12 pm to
quote:

Why would Trump allow that?


He is being controlled by the CDC and the media to a certain extent at the moment. But this will change soon.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:14 pm to
quote:

I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years.


Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

Why would Trump allow that?


Considering his uncle was a scientist and he’s really good at science himself how is he so easily fooled by all these doctors he puts on HIS podium?
Posted by gthog61
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
71001 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:17 pm to
Defend your virus cocksucker.

Don't let them take your joy!
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
27318 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

1. Models are only as good as the data that set the parameters/assumptions 2. All of these models are based only on the earliest data 3. OBVIOUSLY, All of the earliest data were only from severely ill patients - those most in need of hospitalization, with other medical conditions....diabetes, obesity, weak immune systems.. 4. Later data now show by far the majority people who are infected with the Wuhan Virus are asymptomatic and fend off the disease with their own immune systems or less heroic treatment than intubation etc... 5. I have reviewed the predicted vs. actual state by state forecasts from these models -- while they are seemingly relatively close in their predictions of the deaths, they are almost always high (and very high!!) in their predictions and CRITICALLY OVERSTATING THE DEMANDS ON HOSPITALS!!

Truth. And the few positives we have here seem to come way faster than the negatives. frickery abounds.
Posted by Alty66
Jacktown, MS
Member since Aug 2017
1131 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:18 pm to
Saw something similar to this on Tucker tonight.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:19 pm
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

Defend your virus cocksucker.

Don't let them take your joy!


You seem like a very angry, sad, very little man. Are you ok?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36703 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:20 pm to
JBE is posting that the models say NOLA will have 2500 admits per day beginning in May. WTF?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36703 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:22 pm to
I said it above, maybe he's trying it their way and will soon do it his way. If he didn't at least try their way, he'd be chastised. IDK. I'm grasping.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
98739 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:24 pm to
Trump: “The professionals did the modeling. I was never involved in a model…at least this kind of a model.”
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years. Many have been similar to the types of "death/survival" rates being predicted here.


Posted by griswold
Member since Oct 2009
4043 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:27 pm to
As an old school IT guy, here’s the simple fact about computer models. GIGO... garbage in garbage out. Between this and the climate change bullshite we are drowning in garbage.
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