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Why Nate Bronze is full of shite: Using his own data
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:41 pm
He currently gives Trump an 11% chance of winning but he has a page where you can pick states and it changes the odds of the race based of who wins each state.
LINK
If you give Trump only Florida his odds overall go up to 30%. But that's not the kicker. It's how it changes Trump's odds in every other state.
Trump simply winning Florida gives Trump a 79% chance of winning Georgia. That moves Trump to a 36% chance to win the election. Trump winning Georgia and Florida gives Trump a 71% chance of winning Arizona so we can move that one to Trump which gives Trump a 46% chance of winning the election. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and Arizona it gives Trump a 76% chance of winning North Carolina. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina Trump has a 57% chance of winning the election.
Trump simply winning Florida where he's crushing it with early voting basically changes his odds of winning the election from 11% to 57%.
It shows how full of shite Nate Bronze is. shite in shite out. Look at the actual voting data.
LINK
If you give Trump only Florida his odds overall go up to 30%. But that's not the kicker. It's how it changes Trump's odds in every other state.
Trump simply winning Florida gives Trump a 79% chance of winning Georgia. That moves Trump to a 36% chance to win the election. Trump winning Georgia and Florida gives Trump a 71% chance of winning Arizona so we can move that one to Trump which gives Trump a 46% chance of winning the election. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and Arizona it gives Trump a 76% chance of winning North Carolina. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina Trump has a 57% chance of winning the election.
Trump simply winning Florida where he's crushing it with early voting basically changes his odds of winning the election from 11% to 57%.
It shows how full of shite Nate Bronze is. shite in shite out. Look at the actual voting data.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm
26
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:42 pm to The Boat
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:44 pm to Seldom Seen
Side note: I didn't know we could use "shite" in thread titles and not have it censor to "shite" anymore 
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:44 pm to Seldom Seen
So is he pissed that the betting markets are moving to Trump?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:45 pm to Seldom Seen
Nate is such a little bitch
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:45 pm to Seldom Seen
Dunning-Kruger effect?
He’s trying to intimidate critics (and make himself look clever) with a big word
He’s trying to intimidate critics (and make himself look clever) with a big word
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:47 pm to The Boat
If you give Trump TX, GA, FL, OH and NC, his model says Trump is more likely than Joe.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:47 pm to Seldom Seen
If he is wrong... He will be the poster child for Dunning Kruger effect. What a clown for mentioning it.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:48 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
He’s trying to intimidate critics (and make himself look clever) with a big word
I love it when people do this. Even if I know what they are talking about, I ask them what that is, on the spot. As if I have no idea.
If they get angry at me or rapidly change the subject, I know they are full of shite. If they explain it, I figure they at least know something about the area they are bloviating about.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:49 pm to The Boat
quote:
Side note: I didn't know we could use "shite" in thread titles and not have it censor to "shite" anymore
Maybe this is just the grown-ups board.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:50 pm to Seldom Seen
it's pretty amazing to see a person cite the DKE and it be a somewhat good example of the DKE
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:50 pm to The Boat
quote:
Trump simply winning Florida where he's crushing it with early voting basically changes his odds of winning the election from 11% to 57%.
It shows how full of shite Nate Bronze is. shite in shite out. Look at the actual voting data.
This is good stuff, The Boat.
Nate Bronze gives Biden a 33% chance of winning Texas. What are Trump's chances if he also wins Texas? Or were you already giving him Texas in your calculation???
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm to The Boat
His model was reverse engineered and some oddities were found. Good write-up here:
538 Paradoxes explained by smart people
538 Paradoxes explained by smart people
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm to ROPO
Can we please stop this fricking charade that Biden actually has a chance in Texas or Georgia? Seriously?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm to Seldom Seen
The key phrase in his tweet is "even then is easy to get wrong".
And his Dunning-Kruger remark works no matter how the election turns out.
And his Dunning-Kruger remark works no matter how the election turns out.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:52 pm to The Boat
Sad Nate Bronze is actually good at what he does and building statistical models. However, they are only as good as the data that goes in to then. Nate suffers from putting too much faith in his data (polls).
Taking his model in the link, select FL, NC & AZ for Trump and watch how the model changes. That is much closer to the reality on the ground today.
Taking his model in the link, select FL, NC & AZ for Trump and watch how the model changes. That is much closer to the reality on the ground today.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:54 pm to The Boat
all you have to do is give TX, Florida, and Ohio to Trump and he's at 41% and leads in average electoral votes 269.5 to 268.5
*ETA: add in GA and it's 45% and 274.4 for Trump
*ETA: add in GA and it's 45% and 274.4 for Trump
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:57 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
all you have to do is give TX, Florida, and Ohio to Trump and he's at 41% and leads in average electoral votes 269.5 to 268.5
*ETA: add in GA and it's 45% and 274.4 for Trump
Yep. There is a lot of bullshite baked into his "Trump 11% chance" to win.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:58 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
all you have to do is give TX, Florida, and Ohio to Trump and he's at 41% and leads in average electoral votes 269.5 to 268.5
Yeah Nate is an absolute joke. He has Trump at 11% but if you change only three states Trump is pretty likely to win Trump goes all the way up to 41%.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
Trump is going to win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio.
Give all those and what is Trump's %? I'd guess over 60%, because Biden would have to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota at that point.
Give all those and what is Trump's %? I'd guess over 60%, because Biden would have to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota at that point.
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