re: Why Nate Bronze is full of shite: Using his own data

Pollers are no less biased than our so called news commentators. As fairness is no longer part of the equation, putting any stock in the accuracy of polling results is an exercise in futility. On Nov. 3rd, the true pulse of the people will be realized. Perhaps the better indicator is the lack of turnout at the Biden rally's. Clearly there does not seem to be much enthusiasm for him or his running mate.

Baseline to start:

Trump: Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine 2, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Nebraska 1 and 3, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Biden: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, Washington

This gives the following:

Arizona: 61/39 Trump
Colorado: 96/4 Biden
Florida: 73/27 Trump
Iowa: 94/6 Trump
Maine: 83/17 Biden
Maine 1: 98/2 Biden
Michigan: 86/14 Biden
Minnesota: 82/18 Biden
North Carolina: 85/15 Trump
Nebraska 2: 52/48 Biden
New Hampshire: 76/24 Biden
New Mexico: 94/6 Biden
Nevada: 75/25 Biden
Ohio: 95/5 Trump
Oregon: 98/2 Biden
Pennsylvania: 58/42 Biden
Wisconsin: 81/19 Biden

Go ahead and give anything over 95 to the favorite at this point. (Iowa and Ohio to Trump, Colorado, Maine 1 to Biden)

Arizona: 63/37 Trump
Florida: 75/25 Trump
Maine: 85/15 Biden
Michigan: 88/12 Biden
Minnesota: 83/17 Biden
Nebraska 2: 50/50
Nevada: 76/24 Biden
New Hampshire: 78/22 Biden
New Mexico: 92/8 Biden
North Carolina: 86/14 Trump
Pennsylvania: 57/43 Biden
Wisconsin: 81/19 Biden

Now give Arizona and Florida to Trump and New Mexico to Biden:

Maine: 83/17 Biden
Michigan: 83/17 Biden
Minnesota: 79/21 Biden
Nebraska 2: 60/40 Trump
Nevada: 64/36 Biden
New Hampshire: 76/24 Biden
North Carolina: 90/10 Trump
Pennsylvania: 53/47 Trump
Wisconsin: 73/27 Biden

Now North Carolina to Trump:

Maine: 84/16 Biden
Michigan: 81/19 Biden
Minnesota: 78/22 Biden
Nebraska 2: 62/38 Trump
Nevada: 62/38 Biden
New Hampshire: 75/25 Biden
Pennsylvania: 56/44 Trump
Wisconsin: 72/28 Biden

Now Maine to Biden:

Michigan: 85/15 Biden
Minnesota: 83/17 Biden
Nebraska 2: 59/41 Trump
Nevada: 65/35 Biden
New Hampshire: 84/16 Biden
Pennsylvania: 50/50
Wisconsin: 76/24 Biden

Now give Nebraska 2 to Trump:

Michigan: 79/21 Biden
Minnesota: 74/26 Biden
Nevada: 61/39 Biden
New Hampshire: 77/23 Biden
Pennsylvania: 63/37 Trump
Wisconsin: 66/34 Biden

Trump at this point wins the election with either one of Michigan/Minnesota/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin or both Nevada and New Hampshire. If you give Trump PA he sits at 280.

Michigan: 71/29 Biden
Minnesota: 66/34 Biden
Nevada: 52/48 Biden
New Hampshire: 68/32 Biden
Wisconsin: 56/44 Biden

The likelihood at this point that Biden wins the remaining 5 is 9%. The likelihood he wins Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin is 31%. The likelihood he wins 4 is less than 20%.

Assume at this point that each win one of the remaining 5.

EC range

Trump: 284 - 322
Biden: 216 - 254