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Started By
Message
re: While Putin doubles down in Ukraine, his gas gambit is failing
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:21 pm to cwill
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:21 pm to cwill
quote:that is a huge problem - even here we struggle with it
I think a long term worry is what happens to all these gas fields if they are shut in for extended periods and they are short on replacement parts/equipment...a few compressors go down and kaput!
the premise of the OP article is laughable - even accepting that the Euros have "replaced" Russian gas (they havent - as you said they are buying it from other marked sellers) at what cost and is this sustainable? If there is any type of market upset or demand spike what is their ceiling for paying for gas?
quote:oh dont we know
The gas play is a bit of a murder/suicide pact.
quote:
As for alternative nearby sources, I read that they were getting some from a new North Sea line...The Israeli/Noble (Chevron) Leviathan discovery is nearby, but I don't know the actual scale of that field or the feasibility of running pipe to W Europe.
Russian gas has been flowing through Greece, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary since the early 90s
an older map but still relevant with proposed South Stream on it
Yamal System is shut in
Soyuz System is shut in
Trans Balkan and Blue Stream are operational as far as I can tell
1
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:21 pm to thebigmuffaletta
"OP literally cannot stop sucking Zelensky’s dick"
I get your drift, but given the OP's physical location in Louisiana, I strongly suspect he has not "literally" pleasured Zelensky in this or any other manner.
I get your drift, but given the OP's physical location in Louisiana, I strongly suspect he has not "literally" pleasured Zelensky in this or any other manner.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:21 pm to Indefatigable
I understand I was just adding an aside to your comment, because the only reason the Cuban Missile Crisis happened was b/c of the USSR having worldwide influence. The reason why Mexico or Canada (notice how the talking point has shifted countries?) would never permit Russia to put a base is due to the economic-trade variable I mentioned.
Cuba is a wild card. So is Venezuela. I don't think that their leadership would be as willing to give up their sovereignty (aka, the dictator's powers) to become puppets of Russia, though. Russia isn't the USSR and they've done fine on their own for decades now.
Cuba is a wild card. So is Venezuela. I don't think that their leadership would be as willing to give up their sovereignty (aka, the dictator's powers) to become puppets of Russia, though. Russia isn't the USSR and they've done fine on their own for decades now.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:21 pm to supatigah
quote:
why would the russians do this to themselves
Remember...
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:22 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Is China going to sell Europe the Russian hydrocarbons China is importing?
You bet your arse. They will wait for the pain to set in first.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:23 pm to supatigah
quote:
ven accepting that the Euros have "replaced" Russian gas (they havent - as you said they are buying it from other marked sellers) at what cost and is this sustainable?
It's going to be the cost for a while unless Russia really gives in bigly.
Giving war-time support directly to Ukraine is one thing.
The sanctions are a different animal altogether.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:24 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Cuba is a wild card. So is Venezuela. I don't think that their leadership would be as willing to give up their sovereignty (aka, the dictator's powers) to become puppets of Russia, though. Russia isn't the USSR and they've done fine on their own for decades now.
Particularly not now when Havana is on its knees begging Washington for cash, transformers, and generators.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:27 pm to SlowFlowPro
This was expected with a commodity. China bought Russian gas so Chinas usual suppliers redirected gas to Europe.
The question is what does this gas cost Europe compared to Russian gas? It’s way more expensive to transport it there via ship than pipeline. They may have supply, but how much more will it cost consumers now? Can they afford it?
The question is what does this gas cost Europe compared to Russian gas? It’s way more expensive to transport it there via ship than pipeline. They may have supply, but how much more will it cost consumers now? Can they afford it?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
What?
I literally just included a portion showing why this makes Europe or the US less likely to have done it.
No you didn't.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:30 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
While Russia needs to sell the EU its natural gas, Europe no longer needs these supplies. Gas is becoming a buyer’s market. The energy crunch should be no threat to unified support for Ukraine, let alone Europeans’ comfort this winter, despite Putin’s machinations.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:30 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
You’re arguing that because Europe no longer needs the gas that Russia provides, and doesn’t need the gas, and it makes it less likely that they cut it off. In actuality, it is lowering the risk to Europe of not having access to Russian gas. Now that the risk is lower, safer to blow the pipeline and prevent Russia from selling.
OP is semi-retarded.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:31 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Clearly, the cost of petro is increasing due to Russia's invasion
Absolutely Horse shite
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:33 pm to Jack Carter
quote:
OP is semi-retarded.
Europe isn't going to be buying Russian gas for a long while, most likely.
I could be wrong and Russia may give up unconditionally relatively quickly, which would increase the chance of Europe buying gas again, but I don't think anyone really believes it's going to happen.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
You literally just promoted the establishments propaganda . Bravo
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:36 pm to themunch
quote:
Absolutely Horse shite
I didn't say it was 100% of the cause of energy prices rising, but you're arguing that the invasion has led to no increase in cost of petro?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:36 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
He's not re-entering that market anytime soon and this gives him lots of options. He can use disinfo networks to blame the West. He can claim victim status. He can claim this is an aggressive permitting him to escalate (his M.O.). Etc.
If Europe is already getting gas from other market and won't be returning to Russia, what do they gain by blowing up the pipeline?
Europe is paying 1,000% increases right now. I would say Vlad would still have a great bargaining chip with NS2. It would be a hell of a lot cheaper.
You’re making assumptions that Europe is fine. They aren’t fine. I have a lot of euro colleagues. They’re desperate due to the costs. They can’t sustain this and come winter, Vlad’s gas is going to look really inviting.
But oh wait, the pipeline blew up.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:38 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Europe is paying 1,000% increases right now. I would say Vlad would still have a great bargaining chip with NS2. It would be a hell of a lot cheaper.
Is he also surrounding and withdrawing from Ukraine?
Because that's what it's going to take for Europe to reconsider sanctions in response to the invasion.
quote:
You’re making assumptions that Europe is fine.
I'm not. I've been saying for weeks this invasion is costing Europe hundreds of billions of dollars.
You're making assumptions that the EU will lift sanctions relatively easily, which they have not shown to be willing to do.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:43 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
You going full neocon was not something I was expecting
It's pretty interesting to see the newbies on Team McCain. Seems like there's a parallel with the Covidianism.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:46 pm to David_DJS
quote:
It's pretty interesting to see the newbies on Team McCain.
Projection is fun.
quote:
Seems like there's a parallel with the Covidianism
After an initial overreaction in early Spring, I was on here posting about how we need to have more cases and overly restrictive lockdowns were being very inefficient. I even made this picture.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 4:47 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 4:51 pm to Indefatigable
quote:Interesting.
NATO gains NOTHING by adding Ukraine that would help it defeat Russia in a conventional or nuclear war (which will never happen anyway).
I'll bet not even a handful of Russians in their entire country would agree.
It's a matter of history.
The last land invasion of Russia cost them 27 million lives. That was Germany.
A nineteenth century invasion of Russia was equally devastating. That was France.
Both of those assaults initiated from Central Europe. Had either initiated from Eastern Ukraine, Russia would have fallen.
Now, there is a military alliance comprised of both France and Germany. The alliance is angling for access to Ukraine.
Yet, ignoring history, you say such access would "gain nothing".
How very quaint.
Of course it does beg the question, if Russia says NATO in Ukraine is a destabilizing threat, if Russia says NATO in Ukraine would force Russia to move against Ukraine, and if NATO feels Ukraine adds nothing to the alliance, why the hell is NATO playing patti-cake with Ukraine?
quote:First, Noriega is not 6-decades old. Second, "bad policy"???
Are people ever going to stop using 6 decade-old examples of bad US policy as analogies of how to handle current events?
Interesting perspective.
As an American, you really feel the Monroe Doctrine is bad policy? How so? Many would argue spheres of influence are actually stabilizing.
quote:Oh 100%!
Russia, however, absolutely sees a strategic advantage in possessing Crimea and Ukraine’s Black Sea Coast.
Possessing or inextricably allied with the possessors. Russia was fine with the previous Ukrainian relationship. However, any risk of ceding all the old Crimean Soviet ports to NATO was obviously a nonstarter.
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