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Started By
Message
re: While Putin doubles down in Ukraine, his gas gambit is failing
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:30 pm to cokebottleag
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:30 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Even more evidence Russia had nothing to do with the Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
Exactly. It deleveraged Putin. Now the EU must become dependent elsewhere.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 3:31 pm
1
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:31 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
Now the EU must become dependent elsewhere.
China to the rescue.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:32 pm to the808bass
quote:
Our electric bills were already going up here because our provider had to shut down two coal plants.
Did we shut down the coal plants because of Ukraine?
This ding-dong is actually right on this particular. US electric costs have gone up because the only bridge fuel for wind/solar intermittency is natty. Also, you can't build new interstate gas lines to get gas to areas that need more, in particular you can't get the ocean of gas that is the Marcellus to the NE or the Atlantic SE. Not to say LNG export hasn't bumped prices, but its minor comparatively. If not for the inefficiencies domestically the LNG exporters would be making even more $$$.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:33 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
So once again
quote:WTF are you talking about? Ukraine's largest trading partner is already Poland. Russia is third. Turkey and Germany are 4th and 5th.
your position is that Ukraine would never integrate with Europe whatsoever
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
Brandon just begged OPEC and Venezuela for oil. Nat gas is high as well. Doesn't seem like a buyers market. But if the experts tell us it is, we gotta believe it. The experts haven't lied about everything else.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
Europe is buying Russian gas through China at a premium. Putin making out very well, but China is the real crook in this situation. China is probably the culprit of the Nord Stream sabotage, as they have a new golden goose by playing LNG middle man.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:34 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Ukraine's largest trading partner is already Poland. Russia is third. Turkey and Germany are 4th and 5th.
Exactly.
They want to join the EU’s monetary and trade infrastructure, precisely because EU members are Ukraine’s major trading partners.
quote:
WTF are you talking about?
Your persistent nonsensical position that Ukrainian politicians saying the word “NATO” is what prompted Russia to invade Ukraine, instead of simply acknowledging that it’s an excuse/false pretext.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:36 pm to loogaroo
quote:
China to the rescue.
Is China going to sell Europe the Russian hydrocarbons China is importing?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Europe no longer needs these supplies.
Europe doesn't need Russian gas to survive the winter, but it's not as if they are free and clear...they have enough LNG locked down to heat homes through the winter. What they do not have and will need is cheaper natty to support their industries...doesn't make sense to use LNG, it's too expensive. It makes more sense to move the industry to the gas.
The bottom line injury to Russia is that the EU will find alternatives going forward and it has lost its near monopoly on Europe...where do they now take the excess gas? Anywhere they take it will incur additional cost and reduce returns.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:39 pm to lowhound
quote:
Europe is buying Russian gas through China at a premium. Putin making out very well, but China is the real crook in this situation.
If this ratches up, I imagine secondary sanctions are on the table and China will have to stop this little arbitrage.
quote:
China is probably the culprit of the Nord Stream sabotage, as they have a new golden goose by playing LNG middle man.
That would be funny. Funnier than it being a legit accident somehow.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:39 pm to lowhound
quote:
Europe is buying Russian gas through China at a premium. Putin making out very well, but China is the real crook in this situation.
Putin is selling at a discount and China is capturing the delta between the discount and the market. Putin not making out so well.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:39 pm to Powerman
quote:
Please ban yourself
I shouldnt say they dont give a shite, that is overstating it. after all Gazprom is the largest gas exporters in the world.
They are sort of bound in what they can and cant do, so they made their moves and are living with it. The downside to blowing up the pipeline for Europe is potentially greater than the damage to russia.
here is ONE location as an example
the Russians currently have fairly limited LNG facilities, so with the excess gas from all of the BS and the european markets they have:
1. shut in a LOT of their gas well production
2. shifted as much inventory as they can to their resources servicing gas/LNG export to China/Asia
3. maintained the contracts they can for gas export
4. put gas in storage where they can
5. flared the rest
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:40 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Is China going to sell Europe the Russian hydrocarbons China is importing?
Yes...and make $$$ doing so.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
I just want to know if all this has any bearing as to whether or not the money laundering that is currently going on in Ukraine will continue. Because we all know this shite is happening.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:44 pm to Indefatigable
quote:"Saying the word NATO"
Ukrainian politicians saying the word “NATO” is what prompted Russia to invade Ukraine.
I suppose the sounded cute in your mind?
Russia, NOT JUST PUTIN, made their position on NATO in Ukraine crystal clear ... for years! Russia, not just Putin, warned Ukraine to FAFO.
NATO and Ukraine ignored the warnings. They FA'd and found out.
Calling that "nonsensical" is nonsensical.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:45 pm to cwill
quote:
Putin is selling at a discount and China is capturing the delta between the discount and the market. Putin not making out so well.
yeah Putin is trying to keep the gas moving, he isnt making a fortune on it
the bigger issue is they have reached their ceiling on their ability to move gas/LNG to asia
so any hiccup or increase in demand in Asia or Europe and there isnt much relief available
and you made an excellent point about servicing Industry, the Euros are in a bit of a tight spot there
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:45 pm to JJJimmyJimJames
quote:
it is not a war yet. There is still time for all partied to make a move toward diplomacy - and that includes the Evil Empire, obama-kerry-biden-nuland-cia
NO MORE MONEY FOR THE THUGGERY TAKING PLACE by these 3 main partied..
STOP FUELING THE HORROBLE NONSENSE
By chance is your first language something other than English?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:45 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That would be funny. Funnier than it being a legit accident somehow.
It would also be probably the biggest NATO surveillance/intelligence/military reconnaissance failure in the alliance’s existence.
If China can swoop into the Baltic Sea undetected and pull that off, NATO is in a world of hurt.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:50 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Russia, NOT JUST PUTIN, made their position on NATO in Ukraine crystal clear ... for years! Russia, not just Putin, warned Ukraine to FAFO.
Yes I know. Your position is that Russia invaded Ukraine because Russia is worried about NATO, since that’s why Russia said they invaded Ukraine.
quote:
Calling that "nonsensical" is nonsensical.
Maybe ignorant or willfully obtuse is the better word. The EU is a larger threat to Russian economic and political interests than NATO could ever dream of being.
Russia wants the damn land back
It’s hard to fathom how that blatantly transparent aspect of this seems to elude you constantly. But no no, Russia is super scared of Ukraine joining NATO because 8 decades ago the Nazi’s invaded across the steppe…..and you actually believe that is their concern here. This line of thinking gets even more absurdly nonsensical when considering that the Warsaw Pact members already in NATO give NATO a closer and more direct path to Moscow or St Petersburg than any point in Ukraine. We don’t even disagree on what the US position should be. I just don’t understand why you’re obsessed with believing the NATO line that is completely and transparently a pretext for territorial and resource ambitions.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 3:53 pm to supatigah
quote:
yeah Putin is trying to keep the gas moving,
I think a long term worry is what happens to all these gas fields if they are shut in for extended periods and they are short on replacement parts/equipment...a few compressors go down and kaput!
quote:
the bigger issue is they have reached their ceiling on their ability to move gas/LNG to asia
so any hiccup or increase in demand in Asia or Europe and there isnt much relief available
The gas play is a bit of a murder/suicide pact.
quote:
and you made an excellent point about servicing Industry, the Euros are in a bit of a tight spot there
As for alternative nearby sources, I read that they were getting some from a new North Sea line...The Israeli/Noble (Chevron) Leviathan discovery is nearby, but I don't know the actual scale of that field or the feasibility of running pipe to W Europe.
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