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re: What do you think is causing the housing slump?

Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:54 am to
Posted by tjv305
Member since May 2015
12826 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:54 am to
Florida is still booming. I live north of Tampa and they building new houses like crazy in this area .
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
16649 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:54 am to
quote:

Now who’s fault is that?




Yours
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
78038 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:55 am to
quote:

I defended the fact that millennials were victims of a weak economy and recovery when entering the workforce.
Which means they were the least impacted as they had less skin in the game, fewer losses, great buying opportunities and more time to recover.
Posted by boogiewoogie1978
Little Rock
Member since Aug 2012
19361 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:55 am to
quote:

the high price of autombiles which you have to have is contributing to slow housing market

Among other things.

Student loans are holding people back.
People are moving to larger cities where competition for housing is growing.

Also, people are holding on to properties they bought in the downturn hoping to make a buck. Most people would rather rent than buy because housing is high and people change jobs and locations much more frequently these days.

At some point with the high housing prices someone has to take a loss. Either the person who overpays for it or the person sitting on the "investment".
Posted by BulldogXero
Member since Oct 2011
10191 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:56 am to
quote:

Which means they were the least impacted as they had less skin in the game, fewer losses, great buying opportunities and more time to recover.


Except odds are you get paid less than what you would if you entered the workforce in a stronger economy, and that salary history follows you forever.
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:56 am to
quote:

Adjusting for inflation, home prices have risen faster than incomes

A silly stat because "homes" aren't widgets.

Build a 1979 home today and it will NOT be 3x the price. Hell, built it with modern amenities but same floor plan, it won't be 3x the price.

Speaking of which, every time this subject comes up, I can't help but point out that if prices and quality of a product are going UP, that isn't being driven by mirrors!
Posted by BulldogXero
Member since Oct 2011
10191 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:57 am to
quote:

No. But taking on that much for a four year undergrad degree is a choice made by an individual. You will not owe 138,000K going to LSU, Alabama, A&M, MSU, etc. as an instate student.


No you won't but that's part of what makes it an unfair comparison.
Posted by DeltaHog
Member since Sep 2009
763 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:57 am to
quote:

And, can I point out that while the people pointing out current student debt are definitely correct that it affects economic decisions, people need to stop acting like this shite was imposed on people or something. People in the 70s and early 80s didn't have student debt largely because A LOT fewer of them went to college! And before someone says, "well that's cause you could get a decent job without a degree", might I point out that you have the cart before the horse. Our genius govt decided throwing money around willy nilly to let basically ANYONE with a pulse go to college was genius. The argument was, "people with degrees make more" which, typical of govt, reflected the ignorance that this was because people with degrees were MORE RARE! Basically, the govt created a massive debt crisis by throwing this money around and simultaneously, completely watered down the value of the thing they were funding by making it NOT rare. And, on this front, I'd have tons of sympathy with younger folks if THEY would recognize this problem but nooooooo! If you suggest reducing federal subsidization of higher education in the form of loans........young people will basically threaten to burn the place to the ground. I'm not going to sympathize with your house being on fire if you demanding more gasoline to throw on it!


Yeah man lots of very solid points. Hindsight is 20/20, right?

Stop acting like “young people” even knew what they were getting themselves into when it came to college and student debt.

I personally sat in an office filling out my FAFSA being told it doesn’t matter how much I borrowed because I can get a high paying job after I finish my degree and pay it all back soon. I was young, 18 and extremely impressionable and dumb. My father sat next to me and Co-signed. I’m willing to be there are thousands of people just like me that experienced the same exact thing.

Our entire lives we were told all through school, by family and church...go to college and get a degree bc that is what you are supposed to do...only to realize that we were all pretty much being fleeced by scam created by our govt to in debt an entire generation with the sheer luck of a Great Recession and almost depression to deal with as well.

Sorry we aren’t all financial geniuses. Sorry we fell for the scam. Most of us are doing what we can to try and do the right thing. Jesus Christ.
Posted by Ag Zwin
Member since Mar 2016
25219 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:58 am to
quote:

Here is one cause, the high price of autombiles which you have to have is contributing to slow housing market. It is one of a few things


If there was just something like a market for used cars that were only a couple thousand dollars and could be paid for on a monthly installment plan.

Somebody should invent that.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
78038 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:02 am to
quote:

No you won't but that's part of what makes it an unfair comparison.
My point was that student loans don't have to be back breaking.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
78038 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:03 am to
quote:

Except odds are you get paid less than what you would if you entered the workforce in a stronger economy, and that salary history follows you forever.
I don't buy this.
Posted by pizzatiger
Member since Apr 2019
274 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:04 am to
quote:

Which means they were the least impacted as they had less skin in the game, fewer losses, great buying opportunities and more time to recover.



Disagree strongly. If you graduated during the peak of the recession, you missed out on an opportunity to get recruited by a good firm at graduation. This is big because it's a time when big 4 accounting firms, management consulting firms, big law firms, engineering firms, tech companies, etc like to hire people. You lose a chance to get your foot in the door somewhere, which is extremely hard.

If you're mid-career and get laid off, you have a much easier time getting into another gig because you already have skills and experience.

Now, it was also bad to be old. Then you'd have a tough time getting hired again because no one wants the old guy who commands higher wages and might retire soon anyway.

Basically, the very old and the very young got hosed.
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:05 am to
quote:

Stop acting like “young people” even knew what they were getting themselves into when it came to college and student debt.

Well, I mean, who is to blame if an 18-22 year old is somehow unaware that going $100K in debt to get an English Lit degree is likely going to be a challenge?

quote:


I personally sat in an office filling out my FAFSA being told it doesn’t matter how much I borrowed because I can get a high paying job after I finish my degree and pay it all back soon.
You weren't under a rock. You literally lived in a time with the most access to information in history! It's not like the Starbuck's barista with a Master's in Women's studies meme started last year.

quote:

Our entire lives we were told all through school, by family and church...go to college and get a degree bc that is what you are supposed to do.
Absolutely. And, they were all correct.

HOWEVER, just because something is a good thing doesn't mean that the concept of value ceases to exist. For some retarded reason, we've reached a point where people literally get MAD at you if you're my age and say, "well, if you're gonna get student loans for all 4 years, you probably shouldn't major in dance!"

I knew a guy that was over $100K in debt after getting a music degree in Euphonium PERFORMANCE! Not even education, but performance! Can't even teach school with that shite. So, the concept of "A degree", wherever it came from, needs to die.

quote:

Sorry we aren’t all financial geniuses. Sorry we fell for the scam. Most of us are doing what we can to try and do the right thing. Jesus Christ.
Well, I mean, why did you fall for it?

Do you actually need to be a financial genius to know that 100K in debt while studying for a degree that has virtually no demand isn't a great idea?
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
16649 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:07 am to
quote:

I have to think about schools for my daughter too.


Have you considered moving further away from the city (into the country) and having a longer commute?

That is what I did. I bought my first home at age 24. It was a tiny 2bed\1bath on 4 acres. But it was cheap. I lived there and saved and at 27 bought another house that was larger and nicer since I was starting a family. My commute was about 25-30 minutes from both houses. You also mentioned a car payment. If possible sell it and buy an older one. If you are starting out a car payment is a horrible financial decision. The depreciation will kill you, but if that same money was put towards a home you would probably have some appreciation instead.

Also in my area the schools in the country were really good and had smaller class sizes...

Just something to consider.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Maybe this generation is more "Italian" in nature, where they are perfectly fine, as are their peers and the people they date, with living at home til 30, having mom cook their meals, and spending their money on cars, clothes, and dating.

Im 58 and my parents instilled upon me once I got out of school to buy a home, maybe the culture has changed.

My point is, maybe it has as much to do with culture as it does affordability, and the fed reducing rates isnt going to fix it.


I never understood buying a house before marriage and even before kids. You also saw that prior to the 2008 bubble that it made more sense, financially, to rent than to buy. I've heard, haven't confirmed, from younger folks working for me that the rental market is cheaper than buying in Houston.

Not everyone is living at home in their mom's basement, a lot of young pros are just enjoying being single and prefer renting to the responsibility of a house...which is an investment of sorts, but I often think people overlook the "full-cycle" costs of the "investment".
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
78038 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:09 am to
quote:

I personally sat in an office filling out my FAFSA being told it doesn’t matter how much I borrowed because I can get a high paying job after I finish my degree and pay it all back soon. I was young, 18 and extremely impressionable and dumb. My father sat next to me and Co-signed.
He didn't know better?

quote:

Our entire lives we were told all through school, by family and church...go to college and get a degree bc that is what you are supposed to do...only to realize that we were all pretty much being fleeced by scam created by our govt to in debt an entire generation
How much do you owe? Most are complaining about a debt that is equivalent to a new truck purchase. I can guarantee that more was lost in responsible people's 401Ks during the recession than you owe in student loans.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
53682 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:09 am to
quote:

A slowdown in foreign capital flow into US real estate, and a topping out of demand for higher priced homes. There’s a price point that people can’t pay, no matter how much they want to.


The home builders generally quit building starter homes after the 2008/2009 meltdown. All new construction was multi tenant and higher end single family. I guess the folks who invest in real estate figured out the young folks who traditionally buy starter homes in the 1200-1500 sq ft size were not buying due to school loan debt or they couldn't qualify for home loans due to stricter loan qualifications guidelines. I know in the KC area the multi tenant construction boom was probably like other parts of the country and it's predominantly where the under 35 demographic is living.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
69292 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:10 am to
quote:

Have you considered moving further away from the city (into the country) and having a longer commute?


quote:

My commute was about 25-30 minutes from both houses.


Yeah, most places with decent job prospects don't have suburbs with decent public schools and affordable starter homes within a 25-30 minute commute these days. In Baton Rouge, 25-30 minutes gets you from downtown to Essen Lane. When I was commuting from the "cheap" suburbs (in a massive flood plain) to downtown, it was usually at least 45 minutes (but usually closer to an hour) in the mornings and 1:15 to 90 minutes in the evening. After 5 months of that, I wanted to put a bullet in my brain, so I quit that job, cut my income by 30%, and was fortunate enough to find a job closer to where I lived.

However, I couldn't afford my own home in that area, nor are their many apartments. The only reason I can afford what I have is because of family.
This post was edited on 6/5/19 at 10:12 am
Posted by DeltaHog
Member since Sep 2009
763 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Have you considered moving further away from the city (into the country) and having a longer commute? That is what I did. I bought my first home at age 24. It was a tiny 2bed\1bath on 4 acres. But it was cheap. I lived there and saved and at 27 bought another house that was larger and nicer since I was starting a family. My commute was about 25-30 minutes from both houses. You also mentioned a car payment. If possible sell it and buy an older one. If you are starting out a car payment is a horrible financial decision. The depreciation will kill you, but if that same money was put towards a home you would probably have some appreciation instead. Also in my area the schools in the country were really good and had smaller class sizes... Just something to consider


Of course. I would love to do that...my wife on the other hand. We found a house out in the country outside Nashville. It was somewhat cheaper but calculating the traffic to get into the city for work coupled with daycare just did not make much sense. Gas alone didn’t make it much worth it.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
78038 posts
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Disagree strongly. If you graduated during the peak of the recession, you missed out on an opportunity to get recruited by a good firm at graduation.
And you've not recovered?
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