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Message
re: ‘We Are 10 Days Away From Our Hospitals Getting Creamed’
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:12 pm to Ace Midnight
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:12 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
What's your best estimate? 2000? 3000?
I really wouldn't have a realistic basis for making an estimate. I'm not an epidemiologist.
quote:
Are these actually suspected cases by their doctors or are these "peace of mind" test requests?
Likely acute respiratory issue and a negative flu shot. It very well could be something else, but if you can't test you can't know and there is no good reason we can't test.
quote:
I mean, the DHS Secretary said, today, that we've developed somewhat of an excess capacity, with 4 million expected by this weekend.
4 million what? Test per week? Impossible. Last I read we were a couple of weeks away from testing at S. Korea levels. I'd be pleased to learn that we have accelerated.
quote:
Certainly you're not suggesting that millions of folks have been identified by providers as potentially having COVID19 and not getting tests done? Or are you suggesting that?
No. I'm saying that a large but unknown number of patients with acute respiratory issues and a negative flu test and a doctor who wants to rule out COVID-19 can't get a test right now, at least in the US, when they could in other advanced countries.
I'm saying that random people who had interactions with patients with acute respiratory issues and a negative flu test can't get a test right now even though identifying asymptomatic carriers is an important component in limited spread
I'm saying that our testing capacity badly lags every other major country for no particular reason and that limits our ability to fight outbreaks. Let's be Taiwain not Italy is all I'm saying.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:18 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
Last I read we were a couple of weeks away from testing at S. Korea levels. I'd be pleased to learn that we have accelerated.
They keep reiterating that the private lab involvement (and their ramping up) and the state labs doing the testing instead of everything going all the way to Atlanta and back should cause a paradigm shift - they've been implying since late last week that this upcoming weekend should be the big ramp up in capacity.
I get that the task force want to avoid making highly specific commitments at this point because the future is unknown and the press just doesn't understand the testing process so their questions are never helpful.
The press is acting like this is an HIV test and want to know a date when everyone can go to their doctor and "get tested" - I get that Dr. Birx is on the dais, but FFS, can folks be more ignorant?
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:21 pm to OKtiger
quote:
What's truly troubling is seeing this board think the "middle ground" is just brushing off the rate of infection and the repercussions that could result from it as nothing. It's okay to find humor in the situation but, when you get mad when people are trying to take this seriously to prevent a catastrophic economical/logistical situation from happening, you just look like an a-hole
Thank you. The situation is fricking ridiculous. The CDC said they expect as high as 70% of the US population to get this virus and whether the death rate is 1% or 0.1%, if we can keep the number of infected down, the number of dead will be lower. There is also another issue that no one is talking about - lung scarring. A larger percentage than those who die end up with permanent lung scarring that will affect them for the rest of their lives.
I am MAGA as frick and am happy with what I have seen our President do, but if these "just the flu" morons keep this up we will miss the opportunity to help contain the virus or at least minimize the spread. We should have started social distancing by now - buy food for a week instead of 3 days. Time your shopping so that it happens at a time when the stores are not crowded. Stay away from public events for a couple of months. Wash your hands after you go out. Even with the same death rate as the flu, there are 230,000 Americans that will die from this. If we can all pull our heads out of our asses, maybe we can prevent 100,000 of those. It may not matter to you, but it will probably matter to them.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:22 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
I'm saying that a large but unknown number of patients with acute respiratory issues and a negative flu test and a doctor who wants to rule out COVID-19 can't get a test right now
Okay, you're using the word "large", not me. What is "large" in this context? 10s of thousands? 100s of thousands? Millions?
And, so we're clear, you're concerned about testing for infection control, not so much treatment - you would treat viral pneumonia pretty much the same across the board if you couldn't rule out COVID19 (which didn't exist for us before 2 months ago), correct?
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:26 pm to longwayfromLA
Most people who get the virus don't experience severe symptoms. About 15 - 20% of infected people do. Children are not more susceptible to the disease, unlike influenza.
Q: Are children at increased risk for severe illness, morbidity, or mortality from COVID-19 infection compared with adults?
A: There have been very few reports of the clinical outcomes for children with COVID-19 to date. Limited reports from China suggest that children with confirmed COVID-19 may present with mild symptoms and though severe complications (acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock) have been reported, they appear to be uncommon. However, as with other respiratory illnesses, certain populations of children may be at increased risk of severe infection, such as children with underlying health conditions.
But let's continue to panic.
CDC
Q: Are children at increased risk for severe illness, morbidity, or mortality from COVID-19 infection compared with adults?
A: There have been very few reports of the clinical outcomes for children with COVID-19 to date. Limited reports from China suggest that children with confirmed COVID-19 may present with mild symptoms and though severe complications (acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock) have been reported, they appear to be uncommon. However, as with other respiratory illnesses, certain populations of children may be at increased risk of severe infection, such as children with underlying health conditions.
But let's continue to panic.
CDC
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:27 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
there are 230,000 Americans that will die from this.
Holy Crap!
Now on a serious note...where did you get that number from?
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:31 pm to The Maj
Apperently, you ain't real good at math. Or maybe you and the people you know made up for the hundreds of people I know that didn't have it.
So, genius, how many people do you know had H1N1? Just the facts, please.
So, genius, how many people do you know had H1N1? Just the facts, please.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:33 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
where did you get that number from?
330 million in the US
70% infection rate expected - from the CDC.
0.1% death rate of the average flu.
This post was edited on 3/10/20 at 10:35 pm
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:36 pm to longwayfromLA
Sounds like the title to a Pornhub video.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:45 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
Even with the same death rate as the flu, there are 230,000 Americans that will die from this. If we can all pull our heads out of our asses, maybe we can prevent 100,000 of those. It may not matter to you, but it will probably matter to them.
Wait - you're out of your element here. China has ~1.5 billion people, a significant majority crammed in densely packed, huge cities with shite tons of pollution and many chain smokers.
By your math and reasoning, over 1 billion Chinese folks contracted/will contract COVID19 and if as lethal as seasonal flu, 1 million have died/will die?
I'm afraid I'm going to have to see some data before I close the outer door to the bunker.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:51 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
70% infection rate expected - from the CDC.
Link please.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 10:52 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
70% infection rate expected - from the CDC.
Link?
Posted on 3/10/20 at 11:07 pm to Dawgfanman
I am sure that I heard that number from one of the recent press conferences with Pence and the CDC. Here is a link to what a Harvard epidemiologist had to say -
thehill.com
thehill.com
Posted on 3/10/20 at 11:11 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
I am sure that I heard that number from one of the recent press conferences with Pence and the CDC
Then it should be easy to find
quote:
Here is a link to what a Harvard epidemiologist had to say -
He seems to have great credentials so no reason to claim the CDC said it or not post that he said 40-70, that’s scary enough.
I’d imagine such predictions are all over the map.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 11:17 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
330 million in the US
70% infection rate expected - from the CDC.
0.1% death rate of the average flu.
Ah...so as others have pointed out...made up or completely hypothetical...got it.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 11:23 pm to LakeCharles
quote:
Even with the same death rate as the flu, there are 230,000 Americans that will die from this.
According to the WHO China peaked with about 80,000 cases and now fewer new cases are bieng reported daily, a little over 3000 have died, 28,000 are still receiving treatment. That the U.S. fatality rate will be worse than China proportional to their population is ridiculous.
Posted on 3/10/20 at 11:39 pm to EA6B
quote:
According to the WHO China peaked with about 80,000 cases and now fewer new cases are bieng reported daily, a little over 3000 have died,
The WHO believes the Chinese numbers. Do you seriously think that the CCP would have quarantined over half a Billion people, canceled Golden week, and trashed 16% of their 2020 GDP for 3000 people? I think the first honest numbers will come out of Italy.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 5:32 am to LakeCharles
" I think the first honest numbers will come out of Italy"
The numbers might be honest, but not an example of what will happen in the U.S..
The numbers might be honest, but not an example of what will happen in the U.S..
Posted on 3/11/20 at 5:38 am to auggie
quote:
" I think the first honest numbers will come out of Italy"
The numbers might be honest, but not an example of what will happen in the U.S..
Numbers that don't agree with what I want to push are not "honest".
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