re: UW model updates again overnight

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I can't "prove" social distancing had no effect

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i know it made a difference. for any seniors who stayed at home, it gave them time until a treatment is found. for everyone else, all it did was kick the can down the road. the numbers are going to be the same regardless. everyone is still going to the grocery story, doctor's appointments, many people are still going to work, etc. all we did was cancel large, public entertainment gatherings. the question is how high you think the rate of transmission is at these gatherings.

It says our peak ventilator need was like 352, we are using over 600 now.

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don't remember hearing that.

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That’s because the media wasn’t telling us that part. It was part of all the models. The number or percentage of the population infected wasn’t changed by social distancing. It was just supposed to spread it out over time.

I’m sure some of that is calculated marketing. No one is going to stay home for the intangible benefit of modeled healthcare system resources. People will stay at home “to save a life.”

So the latter tack was taken when it wasn’t true (according to the epidemiologists). Now I think the epidemiologists are wrong. Mostly because they’re almost always wrong when it comes to forecasting these things.

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There is pretty good evidence from across the globe that social distancing and lockdowns had a tremendous effect on reduced transmission rates

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this is absolutely false because of the high number of people who were asymptomatic. until you know that number, which no one ever will, no one can say there was "evidence."

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The current median projection of the U.S. and Louisiana still falls within the original range

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this has even been shown to be false itt

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Trump saves 2,140,000 people.

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I ain't no fan of Trump but I don't know how folks don't come to this conclusion 'cause its about as real as anything we've seen about this thing. The social distancing and stimulus may have actually done something, who knows? It is for certain that the social distancing would not have been as readily acceptable at the state level if not for the economic stimulus, as ill advised as the stimulus is for the long term. I know for a fact...I have been involved in the planning at the local level....that Washington meant from about the end of March to either limit unemployment or make it as palpable as possible with more money.....government contractors have been told to more or less pay their people for doing little or nothing to avoid a horrendous economic impact...if that hadn't happened far fewer people would have been able, let alone willing, to suffer the economic impact of social distancing and the willingness at the local and state level to go to such drastic measures would have been far less.

Seriously...imagine a scenario where theyre are only 40K dead by November and the economy is remotely back on track....Trump wins in a landslide because of his handling of the situation.....it don't matter what the long term impact will be...that's a discussion for another day....the perception will be we were looking at 2-3 million dead and the President took the lead in making certain people could social distance with as little immediate economic impact as possible.....if that is where we are in November that is as real as we can get in the US...and again, I ain't ever been a Trump fan since he lured Herschel Walker away from UGA a year early LOL....

The issue for the GOP going forward is the dems will be beat this time BUT the next crisis they will start in with "Trump defeated Coronavirus with a $2 Billion stimulus and saved 2 million lives......we must do the same to halt whatever crisis we are facing now....". Traditionally the GOP would have balked at that...however....Trump has flat out laid the lie to austerity and conservative fiscal policy for many in the GOP....the GOP is now the blue collar democratic party of the 1970's before Reagan convinced us we could all become gazillonaires if we would simply cut taxes on billionaires....Keynes has won in the US and there is no longer any debate among most Americans who are not policy wonks....and both parties are going to go that well early and often going forward....it is a 1970s Democratic dream come true! Cut taxes and spend your way to prosperity...Tip Oneil was the one playing 3D chess....it only took 50 years....

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The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing through the end of the modeled period (August 4, 2020).

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This is what the FAQ section says, in its entirety. I am not seeing the August 4th the date:

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SOCIAL DISTANCING
Does your model show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The data we have from several locations that have implemented social distancing suggest that they are effective. Our model compares the degree to which social distancing measures have been implemented to how long it takes for daily deaths to reach their maximum and the curve to start to go down.

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Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.

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How are social distancing measures used in the model?

The model uses the time from implementation of social distancing measures to the peak of deaths in locations where this peak has already been reached or passed in order to model this relationship for locations where daily deaths have not yet reached their maximum.

Initially, only Wuhan city had progressed far enough through its outbreak for this to be used in our model. An additional 7 locations have since reached or passed the peak of daily deaths (see updates April 5th) – many in less time than was observed for Wuhan city – and this broader evidence base is now used to forecast the date of the peak in daily deaths for each US state and countries in the EEA. The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assumed that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths, the timing of the peak of daily deaths, and thus the burden on hospital systems that the model estimates. The model does not yet explicitly address when or whether social distancing measures could be lifted.

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The reason the projections are spiralling downward is BECAUSE of the shelter in place and shutdown orders. If we kept everything going as normal I'm sure the 2.2 million deaths would have been accurate.

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Epidemiologists disagree with you. They won’t admit it. But their assumptions are the complete antithesis of your assumptions.

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Selective memory tends to happen when your side is proven wrong. This whole thing was a charade

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Whatever, man. It's easy to be a contrarian from your couch based on nothing but the fact that you don't like something and don't want to believe it's true. You can just disappear when your forecast is wrong. Or show up and claim intellectual superiority in the chance that you're right. Stock market "fortune tellers" do it all the time. You can't lead a country on your gut or a hunch.

The disease is real and definitely not a charade. It still has the potential to overwhelm hospitals. It has done so elsewhere and could still do so here. We are living in a post-social distancing America - one without airplanes, concerts, sports, and other large gatherings. An America that didn't do that would likely look quite different.

We've successfully lowered exposures and bought time. Therapies are being tested. A slow rollback will hopefully be in the near future. But this idea that we could've just let the thing run its course without any consequences is head in the sand arse in the air nonsense.

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This doesn’t make sense when it comes to these models. We were told to lockdown to “flatten the curve” specifically being told that it would NOT lead to a lower overall death toll or infection rate, but that it would just spread it out over time. The models are being updated to show a lower overall death total.

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Stop paying attention and just be scared! They will adjust their “goal” as needed lol

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The disease is real and definitely not a charade.

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No one is saying the virus is not real but you cannot deny that the reaction and sensationalism of it either...

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It still has the potential to overwhelm hospitals.

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Not likely at all.

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It has done so elsewhere and could still do so here.

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This is not elsewhere and it never was elsewhere...

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one without airplanes

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Airtravel has stopped in this country? How did I miss this?

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But this idea that we could've just let the thing run its course without any consequences is head in the sand arse in the air nonsense.

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So, destroying the economy was absolutely warranted for what we are currently seeing in your opinion? Noted that you are a tunnel vision type person...