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Started By
Message
re: UW model updates again overnight
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:07 am to 88Wildcat
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:07 am to 88Wildcat
quote:
this disease disproportionately affects African-American
Low-hanging fruit for politicians and the media. What more would you expect from these vile dishonest manipulative people?
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 8:08 am
0
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:09 am to rumproast
quote:
1.5 million and 60k
You are mistaken. the 1.5 million deaths was not the projections, it was what they were hoping for!
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:10 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
Black people dying because of Trump’s racist response to Corona?
You joke, but the wife did recently read a headline to me that was something along the lines of "75% of Corona virus deaths in New Orleans are African Americans"
Obviously I didn't read the article, but it isn't a big leap to make. I'm sure we all remember "George Bush doesn't care about black people!"
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:10 am to anc
Peak around this weekend? Isn’t that close to Easter?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:11 am to omegaman66
quote:
You are mistaken. the 1.5 million deaths was not the projections, it was what they were hoping for!
The Imperial College projections that got this party started were certainly in the1.5-2.2 million range.
The UW model is the one that started 100-240k. Now its down to 60k as the median outcome.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:12 am to rumproast
quote:
Social distancing obviously explains the difference in 1.5 million and 60k. Panic monger much? Nah....
You are comparing the extreme upper range on March 26th with the assumption that social distancing and lockdown measures would be ineffective to the current median projection after two weeks of data accounting for the effectiveness of social distancing and lockdown measures.
But, yeah, you know what you are talking about . . .
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:18 am to the808bass
quote:
Their model is going to be so accurate!
They will be right. Moreso than the Hillary wins models
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 9:00 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:24 am to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
The dims and their cronies (msm) won’t let thing die
True. Trump is going to be caught between a rock and hard place on when and how to open up. Any death after we open up will be blamed on him by the MSM and the left wing loons for opening up too early. If he leaves it up to individual governors some states(mostly blue) will be locked down until July, thus destroying the economy. Very slippery slope, but I have faith that Trump will win out.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 8:26 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:25 am to anc
Mississippi went up
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:26 am to prplhze2000
quote:
Mississippi went up
By what? I think 5-10 deaths?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:27 am to Antonio Moss
No....I'm saying that the reaction obtained by the panic driven media appears to have been grossly overblown. You can proclaim that social distancing "fixed this", but there is no science to back that up beyond assumptions based on panic based modeling...which is guesswork (which turned out to be ridiculously wrong). I can't "prove" social distancing had no effect.....just like you can't prove that it did. You are, however, free to pontificate based on your assumptions. At the end of the day...it doesn't matter...we are where we are. I'm glad the models were bogus and that the death rate looks to be 1/1000 of what they predicted....but I hate the economic disaster we now have to deal with and that several good people are now struggling through no fault of their own.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 8:29 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:28 am to Norbert
quote:
Think about the data we had in the beginning. China data was completely unreliable, and Italy was getting railroaded.
So, make up worst case data and then do little to no comparison against other models in order to vet the information? What you are suggesting is giving these people a pass for sensationalizing their data...
quote:
People are pointing at low numbers and chuckling, but we haven't had a concert or sporting event in over a month. Large congregations are shut down. Businesses are shut down. The strategy is accomplishing its goals, but it's impractical and likely unnecessary long-term. But some restrictions will likely be in place for awhile. Unless we develop a very successful therapy, as I said.
I don't know what this has to do with taking worst case inputs and pulling worst case scenarios from a model in order to push the agenda you wish to push? You are saying making shite up and not relying on true science is preferable to actually looking at this from a scientific manner...
Yeah, doesn't make sense...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:28 am to prplhze2000
Bernie Sanders should walk the plank he was screaming World War 2 deaths early on and fearmongering his Commie arse off.
I said to Mrs Anti they best get to dying out there we will have to get to Black Death bring out your dead territory for that to happen.
I said to Mrs Anti they best get to dying out there we will have to get to Black Death bring out your dead territory for that to happen.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:33 am to anc
quote:
Peak will be this weekend and entire outbreak over by mid May.
This is one of the major problems with people using this model. The model assumes the entire US moves to shelter-in-place until August 4th.
quote:
The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing through the end of the modeled period (August 4, 2020).
They base their curve crushing on what happened in China. They also say that they didn't consider the possibility of a 2nd wave of infections in the US and assume that the US is able to limit infections to only 3% of the US population.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:35 am to anc
Instead of focusing on the inaccuracies a good campaign messenger/manager should hype the leadership that has forced the models to be corrected.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:36 am to rds dc
quote:
They base their curve crushing on what happened in China.
How do they base anything on this? The data out of China is suspect at best, so how do you base a model on this to start with?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:39 am to rumproast
quote:
No....I'm saying that the reaction obtained by the panic driven media appears to have been grossly overblown.
Sure, journalists don't have a clue with how these models work and ran with the worst projections. Most Americans don't know how these models worked and swallowed what the media agedfed them.
quote:
You can proclaim that social distancing "fixed this", but there is no science to back that up beyond assumptions based on panic based modeling
There is pretty good evidence from across the globe that social distancing and lockdowns had a tremendous effect on reduced transmission rates. It follows the math behind it so it's highly likely that its accurate.
quote:
...which is guesswork (which turned out to be ridiculously wrong).
Such nonsense.
quote:
I can't "prove" social distancing had no effect.....just like you can't prove that it did.
There is tremendous evidence in one direction.
quote:
I'm glad the models were bogus and that the death rate looks to be 1/1000 of what they predicted
Just because you don't understand how models work doesn't mean they are bogus. The current median projection of the U.S. and Louisiana still falls within the original range. I notice you aren't on here screaming how the current median range is 30,000 deaths higher than the original low end from March 26th.
quote:
....but I hate the economic disaster we now have to deal with and that several good people are now struggling through no fault of their own.
Sure, but that has nothing to do with infection models
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:41 am to msudawg1200
237 to 310
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:42 am to rds dc
quote:
This is one of the major problems with people using this model. The model assumes the entire US moves to shelter-in-place until August 4th.
I don't know where you saw that, but this is right off the model
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:42 am to rds dc
You:
The first sentence on the model website:
quote:
The model assumes the entire US moves to shelter-in-place until August 4th.
The first sentence on the model website:
quote:
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020
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