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Started By
Message
re: UW model updates again overnight
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:13 am to LuckyTiger
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:13 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
Captain Queeg?
WHERE'S MY STRAWBERRIES????????????????
0
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:14 am to meeple
quote:
Where is the line between this having been overblown, and social distancing working as it should to reduce the numbers?
The argument to be made is just assume New York growth rates all over the country. Extrapolate that and take the difference. Even then, it doesn’t explain the difference, IMO. A lot of faulty assumptions in the models, IMO.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:15 am to Sidicous
quote:
And the #1 most commonly commanded phrase in the bible?
"Fear Not"
Didn't know that.
Thanks Good info
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:15 am to Maytheporkbewithyou
quote:
Sounds like this projection evolves about as much as the cone does tracking a hurricane.
shite worse than that...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:16 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
What do you think the talking points will be today in light of this bad news?
Schiff / Pelosi starting impeachment because he shut down the economy
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:18 am to TeLeFaWx
quote:
A lot of faulty assumptions in the models, IMO.
Which is why all science needs to be questioned, repeatedly... It is the nature of science to question things but anyone that questioned one of these models was labeled a naysayer...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:20 am to anc
Does anyone have a list of the dates and changes to the model? Mainly the date and death count projection change in each update.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:26 am to TeLeFaWx
quote:
A lot of faulty assumptions in the models, IMO.
Undoubtedly. But that doesn't mean we shouldnt try and should instead go on intuition.
Social distancing is definitely slowing the spread and buying time. We just can't distance this way forever. More practical solutions will be needed soon.
I could see bans on large social gatherings going on for quite awhile. Of course, if hydroxychloroquine (or some other therapy) ends up being proven highly efficacious, the outlook is even better.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 7:28 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:29 am to meeple
quote:
Where is the line between this having been overblown, and social distancing working as it should to reduce the numbers?
Probably somewhere around 1M mortalities from a pure economic numbers standpoint on the basis of value of lives lost.
Probably around 250k to 500k lives lost from a marketing/media standpoint. Staying under 100k will be huge.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:31 am to tigers win2
March 31st, April 5th, April 7th
Death projections on March 31st (after the update) were ~90k for this model - I believe
Death projections on March 31st (after the update) were ~90k for this model - I believe
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:31 am to Norbert
quote:
Social distancing is definitely slowing the spread and buying time.
I think the argument is that every area isn’t NYC because of the social distancing. However, if Sweden comes out on the other side relatively unscathed then I’d question even that. People are still going to the grocery store, and until recently no one was wearing masks.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:32 am to YouAre8Up
quote:
This is what happens when you let medical people and scientist make policy and restrictions over a country. These people along with their friends in the media caused a mass panic.
Yep now when do we start looking into the climate change models?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:32 am to anc
The dims and their cronies (msm) won’t let thing die
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:32 am to Norbert
quote:
Undoubtedly. But that doesn't mean we shouldnt try and should instead go on intuition.
It probabaly means we shouldn’t wreck our entire economy based on such models
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:33 am to Norbert
quote:
But that doesn't mean we shouldnt try and should instead go on intuition.
Also should not automatically go with the worst case scenario on inputs, then take the worst case scenario and run with it as the output... It is almost a double whammy with all the models... bullshite in, then take the horseshite out...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:46 am to The Maj
quote:
Also should not automatically go with the worst case scenario on inputs
Actually, other countries proved that this is something you wanted to get ahead of on the front end and relax on the back end. I'm not convinced we made the wrong move, but soon we may be able to have a more intricate approach.
Think about the data we had in the beginning. China data was completely unreliable, and Italy was getting railroaded.
People are pointing at low numbers and chuckling, but we haven't had a concert or sporting event in over a month. Large congregations are shut down. Businesses are shut down. The strategy is accomplishing its goals, but it's impractical and likely unnecessary long-term. But some restrictions will likely be in place for awhile. Unless we develop a very successful therapy, as I said.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 7:47 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:49 am to Norbert
quote:
People are pointing at low numbers and chuckling, but we haven't had a concert or sporting event in over a month. Large congregations are shut down. Businesses are shut down. The strategy is accomplishing its goals, but it's impractical and likely unnecessary long-term. But some restrictions will likely be in place for awhile. Unless we develop a very successful therapy, as I said.
This doesn’t make sense when it comes to these models. We were told to lockdown to “flatten the curve” specifically being told that it would NOT lead to a lower overall death toll or infection rate, but that it would just spread it out over time. The models are being updated to show a lower overall death total.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:03 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
We were told to lockdown to “flatten the curve” specifically being told that it would NOT lead to a lower overall death toll or infection rate, but that it would just spread it out over time.
I don't remember hearing that.
The whole point of social distancing is to slow the infection rate. What it doesn't necessarily do is prevent you from one day getting infected. That's just postponed. The biggest problem with this disease isn't its fatality rate, it's the contagiousness combined with the hospitalization rate.
Also, deaths will certainly fall if you keep hospitals from becoming overwhelmed and buy time to experiment with therapies, learn more about the virus, etc.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 8:06 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:05 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
What do you think the talking points will be today in light of this bad news?
Oh they are ramping up the "this disease disproportionately affects African-Americans" narrative like Evel Knievel coming down to the ramp to jump the fountains at Caesar's Palace.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:07 am to anc
Hope they are right!
Bet you a Beer they are wrong.
Bet you a Beer they are wrong.
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