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US Senate 2022 election predictions...
Posted on 6/7/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 6/7/22 at 2:49 pm
Zero apologies for calls you may think are too farfetched and/or unrealistic. After a summer of brownouts, massive fuel prices, inflation, and continued unprecedented levels of incompetence, there will be a stampede to the polls for an opportunity to fire a democrat.
8 seat swing for a 58-42 Senate Majority.
Republican Incumbent/Retiree Losses - ZERO
Democrat held seats:
Washington - Patty Murray - R PICKUP
Oregon - Ron Wyden - D HOLD
California - Alex Padilla - D HOLD
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - R PICKUP
Arizona - Mark Kelly - R PICKUP
Colorado - Michael Bennett - R PICKUP
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - R PICKUP
Georgia - Raphael Warnock - R PICKUP
Maryland - Chris Van Hollen - D HOLD
New York - Chuck Schumer - D HOLD
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - R PICKUP
Vermont - Pat Leahy - D HOLD
New Hammpshire - Maggie Hassan - R PICKUP
Hawaii - Brian Schatz - D HOLD
House Ds in line for 60-75 losses as well.
8 seat swing for a 58-42 Senate Majority.
Republican Incumbent/Retiree Losses - ZERO
Democrat held seats:
Washington - Patty Murray - R PICKUP
Oregon - Ron Wyden - D HOLD
California - Alex Padilla - D HOLD
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - R PICKUP
Arizona - Mark Kelly - R PICKUP
Colorado - Michael Bennett - R PICKUP
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - R PICKUP
Georgia - Raphael Warnock - R PICKUP
Maryland - Chris Van Hollen - D HOLD
New York - Chuck Schumer - D HOLD
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - R PICKUP
Vermont - Pat Leahy - D HOLD
New Hammpshire - Maggie Hassan - R PICKUP
Hawaii - Brian Schatz - D HOLD
House Ds in line for 60-75 losses as well.
15
Posted on 6/7/22 at 2:53 pm to covtgr
quote:
Washington - Patty Murray - R PICKUP
quote:
Colorado - Michael Bennett - R PICKUP
quote:
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - R PICKUP
quote:
New Hammpshire - Maggie Hassan - R PICKUP
I like your moxie.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 2:53 pm to covtgr
You could stand to make some serious money if you laid down some bets on Predictit. For example, WA Senate seat is 93/7 for dems right now.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 2:54 pm to covtgr
quote:
Republican Incumbent/Retiree Losses - ZERO
I disagree. I see Johnson in WI and Oz in PA as real threats to lose. If I had to bet, I'd say the GOP splits those two.
That would be 51-49 D before moving into the D- held seats.
quote:
Washington - Patty Murray - R PICKUP
Zero chance.
quote:
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - R PICKUP
Possible but unlikely.
quote:
Arizona - Mark Kelly - R PICKUP
Agree. This gets us back to 50-50
quote:
Colorado - Michael Bennett - R PICKUP
Very unlikely.
quote:
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - R PICKUP
0.0% chance
quote:
Georgia - Raphael Warnock - R PICKUP
Agree. Now its 51-49 GOP
quote:
Maryland - Chris Van Hollen - D HOLD
New York - Chuck Schumer - D HOLD
Agree.
quote:
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - R PICKUP
0.0% chance.
quote:
Vermont - Pat Leahy - D HOLD
Leahy is retiring, but they will hold. Agree.
quote:
New Hammpshire - Maggie Hassan - R PICKUP
Possible but not likely.
quote:
Hawaii - Brian Schatz - D HOLD
Agree.
I also think the GOP is fine in OH and NC. So I would predict either 52-48 or 51-49 in favor of the GOP. (Either WI or PA flipping to D, and AZ/GA/possibly NH flipping to R)
quote:
House Ds in line for 60-75 losses as well.
I'd say closer to 35-40, but still large gains for the GOP in the House.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:03 pm to covtgr
The Left lets the GOP take over both houses, in my opinion. They're going to need a huge scapegoat for why the economy is in a severe recession by the time 2024 comes around.
"The republicans took control of both houses in 2022 and stopped Biden's agenda. Now we're in a severe recession! Americans have lost their jobs are are lining up in food lines to feed their families!"
"The republicans took control of both houses in 2022 and stopped Biden's agenda. Now we're in a severe recession! Americans have lost their jobs are are lining up in food lines to feed their families!"
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:06 pm to Lou Pai
Looks like 9 cents in Washington. Will do. Do we have numbers on Connecticut? There are strong candidates in the R primary and Blumenthal is an absolute fossil.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:06 pm to covtgr
While I love the enthusiasm; this is more the stark reality of things.
Democrat held seats:
Washington - Patty Murray - D Hold (Washington has actually shifted more blue in the last year, if you can believe it.)
Oregon - Ron Wyden - D Hold (D +23
California - Alex Padilla - D Hold
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - D Hold (D +3%)
Arizona - Mark Kelly - D Hold (D +3%)
Colorado - Michael Bennett - D Hold (D +13.5)
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - D Hold (D +15%)
Georgia - Raphael Warnock - D Hold
Maryland - Chris Van Hollen - D Hold (D +33%)
New York - Chuck Schumer - D Hold
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - D Hold (D +30%)
Vermont - Pat Leahy - D Hold
New Hampshire - Maggie Hassan - Potential R pickup (Currently D +7%)
Hawaii - Brian Schatz - D HOLD
Add to that
Pennsylvania - D Pickup
North Carolina - D Pickup
Wisconsin - D Pickup
The Dems will easily come out of the election with a majority in the senate.
Democrat held seats:
Washington - Patty Murray - D Hold (Washington has actually shifted more blue in the last year, if you can believe it.)
Oregon - Ron Wyden - D Hold (D +23
California - Alex Padilla - D Hold
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - D Hold (D +3%)
Arizona - Mark Kelly - D Hold (D +3%)
Colorado - Michael Bennett - D Hold (D +13.5)
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - D Hold (D +15%)
Georgia - Raphael Warnock - D Hold
Maryland - Chris Van Hollen - D Hold (D +33%)
New York - Chuck Schumer - D Hold
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - D Hold (D +30%)
Vermont - Pat Leahy - D Hold
New Hampshire - Maggie Hassan - Potential R pickup (Currently D +7%)
Hawaii - Brian Schatz - D HOLD
Add to that
Pennsylvania - D Pickup
North Carolina - D Pickup
Wisconsin - D Pickup
The Dems will easily come out of the election with a majority in the senate.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:07 pm to covtgr
quote:
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - R PICKUP
Who is going to beat her? I don't recall the GOP candidate field having anyone that seemed like a serious threat but maybe you follow IL politics more closely than I (which wouldn't be hard to do).
quote:
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - R PICKUP
Same question as above.
IL and CT are just too blue for the GOP to win senate seats absent some major scandal for the Dem candidate or just incredibly popular GOP candidate.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:09 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - R PICKUP
Possible but unlikely.
Laxalt is going to butcher Cortez Mastro. Nevada is a pain in the arse recently but not in this midterm.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:09 pm to covtgr
MY PREDICTION
Republicans will win the House and Senate but nothing will change. The Brandon agenda may be slowed down but it won't be stopped.
The new Republican congress won't have the desire to make the actual needed changes, so we will still see out of control spending, more "foreign aid" sent to countries to be kicked back to DC, more slush funds, more pointless wars in the Middle East supported by Republicans, more funding of the alphabet agencies like the FBI and NSA and CIA, more protecting corrupt institutions like the DOJ, political investigations that go nowhere, and more.
Then when nothing changes, the Republicans get blamed in the 2024 cycle for being elected but fixing nothing.
Republicans will win the House and Senate but nothing will change. The Brandon agenda may be slowed down but it won't be stopped.
The new Republican congress won't have the desire to make the actual needed changes, so we will still see out of control spending, more "foreign aid" sent to countries to be kicked back to DC, more slush funds, more pointless wars in the Middle East supported by Republicans, more funding of the alphabet agencies like the FBI and NSA and CIA, more protecting corrupt institutions like the DOJ, political investigations that go nowhere, and more.
Then when nothing changes, the Republicans get blamed in the 2024 cycle for being elected but fixing nothing.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:11 pm to covtgr
quote:
Laxalt is going to butcher Cortez Mastro. Nevada is a pain in the arse recently but not in this midterm.
I think its possible that he wins, but I don't see how it would possibly be more than by 1-2% at most. LV's ridiculous growth has ruined Nevada politics. Dems will never get less than 45-48% of the statewide vote.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:13 pm to blakelobbasteel
So how exactly do you believe the GOP would be able to do anything whatsoever without veto-proof majorities?
The entire reason you should want the GOP to flip both chambers is so that Congress can do absolutely nothing until 2025.
The entire reason you should want the GOP to flip both chambers is so that Congress can do absolutely nothing until 2025.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:16 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
So how exactly do you believe the GOP would be able to do anything whatsoever without veto-proof majorities?
The entire reason you should want the GOP to flip both chambers is so that Congress can do absolutely nothing until 2025.
That's the thing - they won't even dare Brandon to veto anything. The Republicans will gladly go along with omnibus spending bills, pork filled spending bills, and continuing resolutions instead of passing a budget. Yeah its not veto proof but show a damn spine and force Brandon to veto it. They won't.
They won't pass a budget or anything like that.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:18 pm to elposter
quote:
Who is going to beat her? I don't recall the GOP candidate field having anyone that seemed like a serious threat
The primary is later this month. I don't love the candidates. Peggy Hubbard is interesting though. Black female navy vet/cop. Reminds me of the lady in PA that got beat by Oz & McCormick but hopefully a tad more polished.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:18 pm to blakelobbasteel
quote:
That's the thing - they won't even dare Brandon to veto anything.
Without a veto-proof majority nothing along the lines that you are hoping for will clear the Senate anyway.
quote:
The Republicans will gladly go along with omnibus spending bills, pork filled spending bills, and continuing resolutions instead of passing a budget.
This I agree with. Omnibus bills should be outlawed by Constitutional Amendment. Either all bills should be single-issue only, or we need to give POTUS a line-item veto. I also support a balanced budget amendment to go right along with it.
This post was edited on 6/7/22 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:19 pm to covtgr
quote:
Washington - Patty Murray - R PICKUP
No. While Washington has lots of conservative areas, they simply don't have the population of Sea/Tac. Out of their most populous cities, only Spokane is in a red area. The western side of WA is where all the population is at (and growing, thanks to Cali-flight) and it's becoming ever more blue.
quote:
Nevada - Catherine Mastro - R PICKUP
Arizona - Mark Kelly - R PICKUP
I think the GOP has a good shot in both of these.
quote:
Colorado - Michael Bennett - R PICKUP
I think this one boils down to if the population there sees their Senators as having blame for oil prices. If Bennett can somehow divorce himself from the DC Democrat machine, he might have a chance to hold on. Again though, this one will boil down to the price at the pumps as Colorado is still in a bit of a transition phase of going from red to blue.
quote:
Illinois - Tammy Duckworth - R PICKUP
Chicago is to Illinois voting as NYC is to New York voting. Duckworth could be Chicago's Charlie Rangel and still hold her seat.
quote:
Georgia - Raphael Warnock - R PICKUP
Yep.
quote:
Connecticut - Dick Blumenthal - R PICKUP
Nope.
quote:
New Hammpshire - Maggie Hassan - R PICKUP
It's possible, but I find it doubtful. Hassan has a fricking gi-normous warchest and hasn't been exactly a divisive camera hog (looking at you, Chuck Schumer). What makes this possible is that while New Hampshire has been moving blue, it still seems to be in a transitional phase (but it's a bit further along than Colorado). Still, I wouldn't put money on this being swung red.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:20 pm to covtgr
You're way too optimistic baw - Colorado has exclusively mail in voting. Washington? Illinois? Connecticut? LOL.
I'd be content to pick up AZ and GA and hold WI to be honest.
In my fantasies we pick up NV and NH as well.
I'd be content to pick up AZ and GA and hold WI to be honest.
In my fantasies we pick up NV and NH as well.
This post was edited on 6/7/22 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:22 pm to elposter
quote:
Same question as above.
IL and CT are just too blue for the GOP to win senate seats absent some major scandal for the Dem candidate or just incredibly popular GOP candidate.
Themis Klarides is the best option in CT, though she's going to have to fend off much more conservative candidates in the primary. Klarides was minority leader in state house for 6 years. She would not be popular on this board....but it's Connecticut.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:28 pm to covtgr
Georgia and Arizona are the only likely pickups. Georgia more than AZ. Laxalt is a strong contender, but can he flip votes in Vegas and Reno?
House will flip Red due to newly created seats and redistricting.
I’m more concerned with the Gubernatorial and State legislature races. Republicans have got to pick up PA, MI, WI, and hold AZ and GA.
House will flip Red due to newly created seats and redistricting.
I’m more concerned with the Gubernatorial and State legislature races. Republicans have got to pick up PA, MI, WI, and hold AZ and GA.
Posted on 6/7/22 at 3:30 pm to covtgr
Lol. When that election is finalized mid November the democrats will have a 2 seat lead in the senate and a 4 seat lead in the house.
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