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U.S. Presidential Odds for November's election (updated with states)
Posted on 9/3/20 at 10:50 am
Posted on 9/3/20 at 10:50 am
As of 9/3
Trump - 110
Biden - 110
Big shift lately towards Trump. Biden at one point was - 140 to - 160 depending on where you play.
Big moves with these three states from last month:
Wisconsin was + 170 for R now off the board. I assume due to riots?
Michigan was + 250 now + 165 for R
Minnesota was + 300 now + 170 for R
Other key states:
Florida - 115 for R and - 115 for D
Pennsylvania - 180 for D and + 135 for R
Arizona - 130 for D and EVEN money for R
Iowa - 300 for D and + 220 for R
Trump - 110
Biden - 110
Big shift lately towards Trump. Biden at one point was - 140 to - 160 depending on where you play.
Big moves with these three states from last month:
Wisconsin was + 170 for R now off the board. I assume due to riots?
Michigan was + 250 now + 165 for R
Minnesota was + 300 now + 170 for R
Other key states:
Florida - 115 for R and - 115 for D
Pennsylvania - 180 for D and + 135 for R
Arizona - 130 for D and EVEN money for R
Iowa - 300 for D and + 220 for R
8
Posted on 9/3/20 at 10:53 am to Will Cover
Iowa is +220 for Trump.
Can I bet my 401K on that
Can I bet my 401K on that
Posted on 9/3/20 at 10:55 am to Will Cover
quote:
Iowa - 300 for D and + 220 for R
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:02 am to VADawg
I think OP is wrong...Bovada has these exact odds but flipped
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:03 am to Will Cover
Aren't odds a bad thing to go off of? They change based on where the money is being placed so that the "house" gets money on both sides. Is it totally different in politic odds?
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:11 am to Will Cover
I don't understand how they can have even odds for the election, but have the swing states look the way they currently do. Something isn't adding up
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:12 am to flyAU
quote:
They change based on where the money is being placed so that the "house" gets money on both sides.
Well, that's not even how it works in sports gambling, sooo
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:13 am to flyAU
Think of it more like people don't buy the bullshite when they put their own money on the line. IMO, betting markets shift but are usually dead on. Way better then the polls.
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:13 am to Will Cover
I'm going in Bigly on Biden.
These books makers assume the election will be "fair"
These books makers assume the election will be "fair"
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:14 am to Will Cover
Iowa is a steal
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:15 am to flyAU
quote:This is not correct, books don't always try to get 50/50 on each side for the money.
They change based on where the money is being placed so that the "house" gets money on both sides.
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:21 am to shel311
quote:
This is not correct, books don't always try to get 50/50 on each side for the money.
I am not saying it would be the 100% driver of the line, just saying that it will shift with money going hard on one side vs the other.
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:21 am to Will Cover
Important to remember Trump was odds on for large parts of the year. Around the time BLM protests kicked off their was a natural reduction in Bidens odds but the longer its gone on Trump has shortened back the mean.
I agree the state betting doesn’t match the presidential betting and there is money to be made. I’ve had bets on MN and NH and the odds are retracting nicely
I agree the state betting doesn’t match the presidential betting and there is money to be made. I’ve had bets on MN and NH and the odds are retracting nicely
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:31 am to nugget
quote:Lines do move based on the action and amount. It may not be 50/50, but in general it’s in the best interest of the books to have them pretty evenly distributed. This is also why the final line and odds are remarkably accurate and more accurate than the initial line and odds because of the “wisdom of the crowd” not because the odds makers have some super forecasting abilities (though they’re pretty good) like many seem to think.
Well, that's not even how it works in sports gambling, sooo
This post was edited on 9/3/20 at 11:33 am
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:33 am to Will Cover
quote:
Iowa - 300 for D and + 220 for R
Uhh yeah that can’t be right... wherever you see this you better place a max bet. If the max bet allowed is $1,000 for instance then you’d have $3,200 on November 4.
Risk $1000 to win $2200
Posted on 9/3/20 at 11:34 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
but it’s in the best interest of the books to have them pretty evenly distributed
Vegas takes stands on games very often. Sometimes they want 50/50 or round about, but often times they're trying to get more money on one side. It happened many times during the LSU/Bama games where they would try and get more money on LSU.
Vegas doesn't live off the squeeze.
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