re: US oil production has increased 300,000 barrels per day in Nov alone

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But that doesn't help with regards to where demand is going to be, which is in Europe, India, and China. Russia and Iran have quite a bit of NG infrastructure already, with Iran already having projects going to India and a possible deal with China.

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Yes it does help. All of the plants being built are export plants and the NG processed into LNG will be loaded on ships to transport it to those same countries you mentioned.

It was my understanding that shipping NG had limitations, and was less profitable than through pipelines. Am I mistaken?

I think cutting into Russian market share in Europe is conditional on lots of things, and probably less feasible than other markets. I think NG exports to Europe only account for less than 10 billion cubic meters since 2016, while at the same time Russian exported 160 billion cubic meters in the same time frame. I'm even less sure about India, as work on an Iran-Pakistan pipeline has already begun, and there is already talk of expanding the pipeline to India, as Iran has good relations with India. An India-US trade deal is complicated, and I'm skeptical a full deal can be negotiated before 2020, with a partial deal likely. Even at this stage, India imports more oil from 9 countries than it does from the US.

China also has built it's own pipelines to central Asia, while also increasing imports from Russia, with a new agreement going into effect in 2018.

I have no doubt the US will be a player in NG markets, though. The geopolitics at play (with regard to sanctions, and whether the Iranian government will survive into the new decade) make things very interesting.

Cave is technically right. That's the period fracking exploded.

Obama didn't have a fricking thing to do with the explosion of the fracking industry.

One problem with LNG right now is that when the projects started the spread was roughly $10+, now there’s a glut of gas on the international market and its trading around $5 so the spread is down to $2.50. Turns out there’s too much fricking gas in the world!

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there’s a glut of gas on the international market

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That's what I'm hearing, too, that overseas inventories are stocked with storage basically at full capacity. A really cold winter could help that situation, though.

The other problem facing LNG exports to Europe is, the U.S. can build all the export facilities it wants, but there have to be facilities that can import that LNG, and those facilities are still probably years away in a lot of places over there.

Talking with representatives of some Central European countries, they want to bring in American LNG, but they don't have the infrastructure to get it there right now. Plus, with Germany trying the green energy route, that part of Europe is going to have to watch that fiasco play out before the EU changes course and starts promoting the import of LNG.

Overall, I think there's a bit of a lull coming in the LNG market for the next couple of years, but over the next decade, it will rebound and become more attractive as LNG remains safe, abundant, clean, and more transferable around the world.

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Cave is technically right. That's the period fracking exploded.

Obama didn't have a fricking thing to do with the explosion of the fracking industry.

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I would never argue he did anything to cause it nor did I, some people either have extremely poor reading comprehension or are so delusional that facts trigger them.

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Do you know that Shell, Chevron, and Exxon are all trying to get more heavily involved in the Permian? Like I said before, I don’t think it is nearly as bleak as you think. I would think some of these slumping companies could get bought up by supers just like Chevron attempted with Anadarko this year.

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Oxy bought Anadarko, got skinned by Buffet to get the money to do it and is now getting killed in the market. Icahn is now trying to take control of the board to shitcan Vicki Hollub who proved that women can destroy capital just as well as men!

Look you keep bringing up 2-3 super majors and what they’re doing. By the way you left out the BP purchase of BHP’s US onshore. I’m not saying the industry is going belly up or that all projects are uneconomic or, even, that all shale is uneconomic. The shale revolution was oversold - the size, the productivity - none of it meeting the claims. The result is a massive pull back in the equity mkts, capital mkts shut, layoffs and BKs. Just look at the stock performance of the E&P sector over the last year - not a single winner in a record bull market.

By the way cvx and xom have had significant layoffs over the last 4 years and the rumor on the street is cvx is about to have another...which is needed if they’re going to bet big on shale.

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The shale revolution was oversold - the size, the productivity - none of it meeting the claims. The result is a massive pull back in the equity mkts, capital mkts shut, layoffs and BKs. Just look at the stock performance of the E&P sector over the last year - not a single winner in a record bull market.

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I think this thought is generally accepted. Commodity market and it's cyclical nature. Oh well. What's your solution?

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100. ETA: And no more pre-packaged BKs where the company reemerges with restructured debt with the same shite mgmt team or some other replacement laggards that then manage the zombie-co for their own personal benefit as it slides back into Chap 11 (now ruefully referred to within industry as the ole Chap 22).

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Halcon x2

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Natural gas is showing up now as fuel for offshore supply boats

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I work on one