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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 8/13/20 at 9:54 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 8/13/20 at 9:54 pm to Chromdome35
I’ve been telling y’all! 
I’m glad y’all are starting to come around to all the fake BS surrounding China flu
I’m glad y’all are starting to come around to all the fake BS surrounding China flu
2
Posted on 8/14/20 at 5:27 pm to Bandit30
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:28 pm to Bandit30
The US is a massive outlier since June 1. We are having 1000+ deaths/day - other 1st world countries are having like 20.
What's the reason for this? Most of their schools in Europe are going to be open like normal next month.
What's the reason for this? Most of their schools in Europe are going to be open like normal next month.
This post was edited on 8/14/20 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:37 pm to Big Scrub TX
Did you ever think size of country?
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:41 pm to Crimsonians
quote:Yes. Yesterday we had 1200 deaths. The UK had 18. I'll save you the time in looking it up - the US is not 66 times as big as the UK.
Did you ever think size of country?
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:43 pm to Big Scrub TX
Scrub, the deaths in America are currently occurring in places it never hit in March and April
It’s more fair to compare Texas et al to Brazil and South America
It’s more fair to compare Texas et al to Brazil and South America
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:44 pm to Chromdome35
Screw Texas. Reported over 1000 new cases for Collin County when the average has been around 150.
At least offer an explanation when you dump numbers so that people who follow this understand.
I can’t find an explanation.
At least offer an explanation when you dump numbers so that people who follow this understand.
I can’t find an explanation.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:45 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:OK, that makes sense. But why did the spread to those places have to happen? Why didn't it spread similarly from Northern Italy? Should we be happy being Brazil?
Scrub, the deaths in America are currently occurring in places it never hit in March and April
It’s more fair to compare Texas et al to Brazil and South America
I would submit that we went half-assed with our lockdowns and came out of them a smidge too soon.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I would submit that we went half-assed with our lockdowns and came out of them a smidge too soon.
I would say you are full of shite because cases and lockdowns are not correlated.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 6:49 pm to Big Scrub TX
You mean like California? Come on. It is land mass. Takes longer to spread across more land than those small European countries.
Why he said Brazil.
Why he said Brazil.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 7:03 pm to gthog61
quote:Just silliness. Of course they are correlated.
I would say you are full of shite because cases and lockdowns are not correlated.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 7:29 pm to Big Scrub TX
They are. Lockdowns delay the spread.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 7:52 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
What's the reason for this? Most of their schools in Europe are going to be open like normal next month.
Because the US is incentivizing hospitals to list all deaths "with" Covid as deaths "from" Covid and these foriegn countries with Socialized medicine don't have the same push to call all deaths Covid. Just the actual proven Covid deaths are being counted there. We are paying hospitals to lie.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 8:53 pm to Chromdome35
COVID Tracking Project changed something in their data feed today, I'm going to have to make some edits to my download/import process, I'll try to have it done today.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 9:38 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
Posted on 8/14/20 at 9:45 pm to Chromdome35
I think it is fairly evident that what I call the George Floyd spike (since it was clearly aligned with the dates) has reached it's peak and is starting to decline. The growth rate of deaths has been flat since 7/23.
Testing has increased, but not back to the level it obtained not that long ago. The positivity rate is definitely declining. Hospitalizations are showing a rapid decline, not quite as fast as they went up, but there are lots of COVID patients who require extended hospital stays.
Every single metric is moving in the correct direction. I think that as schools reopen IF we can avoid a new spike in cases, we should be able to say this thing is wrapping up. If there is going to be a school spike, we should start to see that in around 2 weeks. I expect to see everything continue to decline until then.
Testing has increased, but not back to the level it obtained not that long ago. The positivity rate is definitely declining. Hospitalizations are showing a rapid decline, not quite as fast as they went up, but there are lots of COVID patients who require extended hospital stays.
Every single metric is moving in the correct direction. I think that as schools reopen IF we can avoid a new spike in cases, we should be able to say this thing is wrapping up. If there is going to be a school spike, we should start to see that in around 2 weeks. I expect to see everything continue to decline until then.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:21 pm to Chromdome35
Good stuff Chrome. Other than the frickery on Wednesday, positivity is looking great. Now we see if my prediction from last week of deaths turning down next week becomes reality. Hoping to finally see a Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday drop below 1k.
COVID Tracking must be catching up on Texas deaths, the other source I saw today said Texas reported 192 deaths and less than 1k nationwide. Said other source has Texas with a slightly higher death toll too (same for nationwide, currently shows 171,535 deaths on ncov2019.live), so likely just catchup or COVID tracking having a higher standard for "counting" a death.
COVID Tracking must be catching up on Texas deaths, the other source I saw today said Texas reported 192 deaths and less than 1k nationwide. Said other source has Texas with a slightly higher death toll too (same for nationwide, currently shows 171,535 deaths on ncov2019.live), so likely just catchup or COVID tracking having a higher standard for "counting" a death.
Posted on 8/15/20 at 12:07 pm to AUMIS01
quote:
The wand that will accomplish this feat is a thin paper strip, no longer than a finger. It is a coronavirus test. Mina says that the U.S. should mass-produce these inexpensive and relatively insensitive tests—unlike other methods, they require only a saliva sample—in quantities of tens of millions a day. These tests, which can deliver a result in 15 minutes or less, should then become a ubiquitous part of daily life. Before anyone enters a school or an office, a movie theater or a Walmart, they must take one of these tests. Test negative, and you may enter the public space. Test positive, and you are sent home. In other words: Mina wants to test nearly everyone, nearly every day.
The tests Mina describes already exist: They are sitting in the office of e25 Bio, a small start-up in Cambridge, Massachusetts; half a dozen other companies are working on similar products. But implementing his vision will require changing how we think about tests. These new tests are much less sensitive than the ones we run today, which means that regulations must be relaxed before they can be sold or used. Their closest analogue is rapid dengue-virus tests, used in India, which are manufactured in a quantity of 100 million a year. Mina envisions nearly as many rapid COVID-19 tests being manufactured a day. Only the federal government, acting as customer and controller, can accomplish such a feat.
Really seems crazy that this hasn't happened yet.
LINK
Posted on 8/15/20 at 1:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Many Americans may understand that testing has failed in this country—that it has been inadequate, in one form or another, since February. What they may not understand is that it is failing, now. In each of the past two weeks, and for the first time since the pandemic began, the country performed fewer COVID-19 tests than it did in the week prior. The system is deteriorating.
We can’t test our way out of a virus. We were told we could. We can’t. This article subscribes to that fallacy.
quote:
These new tests are much less sensitive than the ones we run today,
I may be reading this incorrectly, but this is a really odd sentence that is kind of buried in the article. We already have a huge issue with the accuracy of the tests we are using. I don’t have a rock solid handle on the pathology question, but a less sensitive test seems to indicate less accuracy. Is this test a coin flip? How does living our lives subject to a coin flip at every point of entrance into a group improve our situation?
Posted on 8/15/20 at 4:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
The US is a massive outlier since June 1. We are having 1000+ deaths/day - other 1st world countries are having like 20.
What's the reason for this?
Because those European nations were hit earlier. Their deaths per capita are higher than ours, but we are closing the gap. Just timing; that’s all there is to it.
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