- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:37 pm to TeLeFaWx
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:37 pm to TeLeFaWx
Not sure it’s been mentioned but if you look at Washington’s DEpartment of Health website (that feeds the world meters site) they admit that their data has been bad for the past few days.
0
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:42 pm to Janky
quote:
If the growth rate of new cases is trending down, how is that not flattening the curve?
It slows the curve it doesn't flatten but the bigger point is with the slower growth rates there's no way we get to these expedential numbers over 2 months.
And they keep talk about the death rate following the infection rate in their models and while it happened in NYC and Italy it didn't happen in Washington, California, Germany etc and we REALLY need to get demographics on the "infections" aka positive tests.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:49 pm to RD Dawg
Many are looking at things wrong. The flattening of the curve never happens until the growth rate (how fast this is spreading from person to person) slows. That number is slowing down. It used to be a doubling of case numbers daily, two days, etc. Now it is approaching 3 days for case numbers to double. Eventually that becomes 4 days, 5 days, etc.
After a certain point the spread slows enough where the hospitalizations slow, the postive cases slow and eventually the death numbers slow in the end.
Speed of spread to cases to death.
Once we pass the 3 day of cases doubling we will start to see the peak numbers.
If we were still at 1 or 2 days in cases doubling we would be in a world of hurt as our healthcare system would have become overwhelmed to the point where people who need to be vented can't get it. We did not reach that point and now we even have a stock pile not being used right now.
After a certain point the spread slows enough where the hospitalizations slow, the postive cases slow and eventually the death numbers slow in the end.
Speed of spread to cases to death.
Once we pass the 3 day of cases doubling we will start to see the peak numbers.
If we were still at 1 or 2 days in cases doubling we would be in a world of hurt as our healthcare system would have become overwhelmed to the point where people who need to be vented can't get it. We did not reach that point and now we even have a stock pile not being used right now.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:49 pm to Chromdome35
The worldOMeter numbers just changed again.
24,492 new U.S. cases today.
188,280 total U.S. cases.
742 U.S. deaths today.
3,883 total U.S. deaths.
24,492 new U.S. cases today.
188,280 total U.S. cases.
742 U.S. deaths today.
3,883 total U.S. deaths.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:50 pm to TheeRealCarolina
Carolina,
The numbers come from the Worldometer website (Linked in my OP) that has been publishing them for quite a while now. They seem to track right along with the other numbers on the various trackers out there on the internet such as the well-known john Hopkins site.
I suspect but have no way to know, that this could be partially due to a "hangover" from Sunday when the numbers were abnormally low.
The numbers come from the Worldometer website (Linked in my OP) that has been publishing them for quite a while now. They seem to track right along with the other numbers on the various trackers out there on the internet such as the well-known john Hopkins site.
I suspect but have no way to know, that this could be partially due to a "hangover" from Sunday when the numbers were abnormally low.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:57 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I suspect but have no way to know, that this could be partially due to a "hangover" from Sunday when the numbers were abnormally low.
Let's hope this is the case
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:00 pm to BamaPig
Preach
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:06 pm to Chromdome35
OP I wish you’d keep the original dates in your spreadsheet so we can get a whole scope of this thing. When did it change to 2 weeks only?
Do the screenshots not fit is that why?
Regardless, thanks for continuing to put in work on this
Do the screenshots not fit is that why?
Regardless, thanks for continuing to put in work on this
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:11 pm to RD Dawg
I just don’t see the numbers adding (multiplying) to 150,000 or 200k.
Let’s call it 4K deaths and then 4K serious. If all 4K don’t make it, unlikely, we are at 8K @ 180K cases. To get to 150,000 we are looking at a minimum of 2,000,000 cases even if all the serious cases don’t make it.
I’m thinking we end up somewhere around 1M cases with no more than 60-70K don’t make it, which is still AWFUL and God bless all of those families. This will not be over the next month, but maybe over the next year. 24/7 media will stop the death tracker and move to something else by end of Spring once people realize the suicide rate is higher than the COVID rate.
Let’s call it 4K deaths and then 4K serious. If all 4K don’t make it, unlikely, we are at 8K @ 180K cases. To get to 150,000 we are looking at a minimum of 2,000,000 cases even if all the serious cases don’t make it.
I’m thinking we end up somewhere around 1M cases with no more than 60-70K don’t make it, which is still AWFUL and God bless all of those families. This will not be over the next month, but maybe over the next year. 24/7 media will stop the death tracker and move to something else by end of Spring once people realize the suicide rate is higher than the COVID rate.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:11 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:14 pm to idlewatcher
If you go to the Linked Tracker you can see all of the data. Due to screen size and post size on PT I just show part of the historical data.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:15 pm to Chromdome35
Doesnt look good
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:21 pm to Chromdome35
Glad to see the recoveries number jumped up. I hope that continues.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:23 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:
The flattening of the curve never happens until the growth rate (how fast this is spreading from person to person) slows
It takes more than that to flatten the curve...which is way it's a little deceptive.
Look at Italy The infection rates have slowed but the curve hasn't started to flattened out.
It's just beginning to do it with deaths...with itd rate if growth down substantially.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:26 pm to Chromdome35
Today saw a large rise in cases @ 24,752 a 15.1% increase over yesterday. The growth rate of cases increased, breaking a 4-day downward trend. The case growth rate has been a decline since reaching a peak of 48.9% back on 3/19. We won't be able to say if the downward trend that started on 3/19 is over until we see a few more days of growth numbers. Back on 3/26, we saw a 1-day increase in growth rate, but then it fell back to the declining pattern...
A positive point about new cases, the days to double rate is 5.29, that's a pretty dramatic improvement since on the 17th when it was at 2.79
The number of new deaths hit 748 today, the highest to date. The growth rate of deaths increased for the second day in a row. The good news is that the days to double for deaths continued a 6-day trend by increasing to 4.34.
The % of serious cases has risen two days in a row now up to 2.58%. While it has increased, it is still the lowest out of all the current comparative countries with the exception of the UK who doesn't seem to be reporting this number.
The mortality rate continues to climb and is up to 2.06%. Hopefully, we'll see the Hydroxy/Zpack combination start to lower this soon. I have expected to see the mortality rate fall as more cases were diagnosed, I'm surprised and concerned it hasn't.
A positive point about new cases, the days to double rate is 5.29, that's a pretty dramatic improvement since on the 17th when it was at 2.79
The number of new deaths hit 748 today, the highest to date. The growth rate of deaths increased for the second day in a row. The good news is that the days to double for deaths continued a 6-day trend by increasing to 4.34.
The % of serious cases has risen two days in a row now up to 2.58%. While it has increased, it is still the lowest out of all the current comparative countries with the exception of the UK who doesn't seem to be reporting this number.
The mortality rate continues to climb and is up to 2.06%. Hopefully, we'll see the Hydroxy/Zpack combination start to lower this soon. I have expected to see the mortality rate fall as more cases were diagnosed, I'm surprised and concerned it hasn't.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:28 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Show me how with our current data?
We know the rates of daily deaths are decreasing even in NYC and even rates of infection are decreasing but those numbers obviously will be erratic with increase testing.
The 100K will also mean we catch up to Italy in per capita deaths and mortality rates.
So our mortality rates are gonna go from 1.6% over 10% in 30 days?Or even 60 days?
How is that possible?
Something people seem to be missing is that we are not dramatically ramping up testing anymore. Testing has remained fairly flat for several days now, around 100k/day.
LINK
A week or so ago NYC released new guidelines as well to limit the number of tests taken, and now they are near 50% positive rate.
LINK
WHO says if our positive rate is above 10% it's an indication we are missing a huge number of cases.
So the increase we are seeing in cases is now largely due to an increase in the positive test rate due to limiting testing to more severe cases. And that is how our reported mortality rate will increase to Italy levels. It is just a result of limiting testing to cases that need hospitalization. It is also why looking at hospitalizations and deaths will be better to track the epidemic than total case numbers.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:35 pm to CatahoulaCur
quote:
24/7 media will stop the death tracker and move to something else by end of Spring once people realize the suicide rate is higher than the COVID rate.
Bullseye...
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:36 pm to frogglet
Like this?
It is very interesting how close Serious Cases tracks to deaths. I wonder if you have to be on a vent in ICU to be classified as "serious"
It is very interesting how close Serious Cases tracks to deaths. I wonder if you have to be on a vent in ICU to be classified as "serious"
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 9:43 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:43 pm to frogglet
quote:
WHO says if our positive rate is above 10% it's an indication we are missing a huge number of cases.
I have very little confidence in what the WHO says at this point...and just by the guidelines on who gets tested...we already know we are missing a lot of positives. I just want to see the death rate decrease.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:44 pm to Chromdome35
Yep. As long as testing criteria and availability is consistent, then cases would be a good way to track the spread, but when it changes like it did on the 20th in NY or when we were expanding testing it can be misleading and make you think it is either slowing down or speeding up more more than it really is. Hospitalizations and deaths are a little more reliable.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 9:45 pm
Page 111 of 331
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News