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Started By
Message
re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:34 am to LSURussian
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:34 am to LSURussian
quote:
What schism? The CBR's Governor, akin to our Fed Chairman, was appointed by Putin.
One article I read this morning said she got Putin's permission to raise the CBR's rate last night before she announced the increase.
The issue is people who grew up thinking a government command economy works the way the government orders it to are still in charge of Russia.
The concept of 'real' market forces eludes them completely.
_________________________________
Fwiw, I am starting to read stories in the media that Russia defaulting on its sovereign debt is no longer out of the question.
The thinking is coming around to what I've said when I started this thread: Russia's "massive" hard currency reserves may be an illusion. Russia is now reportedly selling some of its gold to raise dollars to support the ruble. Why would they be selling their gold reserves if the CBR actually owns a huge amount of dollars?
Nothing in that quote is wrong, yet you seem to have accrued a stalker that downvoted it.
1
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:36 am to LSURussian
quote:
I was predicting Russia's default before anyone else was even considering the possibility
do agree
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:07 am to LSURussian
quote:
You might understand risk but what you are totally clueless about is Russia.
My understanding of Russia is irrelevant. You are telling everyone that they WILL default. Reasonably liquid trading markets are radically underpricing that risk relative to your predictions. Hence, there is a rational trade to be made by someone with your viewpoint.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:08 am to Iosh
quote:
I'm not saying Russia will default, but I am definitely on board with the idea that LSURussian is correct in being way more pessimistic about their prospects than "the markets" have been.
Right. So make the bet then...take advantage of the markets' optimism. That's all I'm saying.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:11 am to LSURussian
quote:
I was predicting Russia's default before anyone else was even considering the possibility.
Slow down there, cowboy.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:27 am to LSURussian
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:39 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:This tells me all I need to know about your posts regarding Russia. Thanks.
My understanding of Russia is irrelevant.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:40 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:He did. And he won....BIG. (see the Russian thread on the Money Board)
So make the bet then...take advantage of the markets' optimism. That's all I'm saying.
Do you feel better now?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:43 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:Please provide a link to where someone was mentioning the possibility of a Russian sovereign default before I started this thread on 9/29. I just Googled and I couldn't find one. Thanks.
I was predicting Russia's default before anyone else was even considering the possibility.
Slow down there, cowboy.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:46 am to LSURussian
Glad to see they only own about $108B in US Treasurys as of October. If they dump them, hopefully it won't hurt too much. I was thinking they held much more than that.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:49 am to Bard
quote:
Nothing in that quote is wrong, yet you seem to have accrued a stalker that downvoted it.
Yep. It's a group of juveniles from the Rant. We just had this same discussion in this Russian financial topic thread on the Money Board. LINK If they follow the same pattern, one of them who has not posted in this thread will be here shortly to deny stalking me...
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:55 am to LSURussian
quote:1234567vfl agrees
Russia is now reportedly selling some of its gold to raise dollars to support the ruble. Why would they be selling their gold reserves if the CBR actually owns a huge amount of dollars?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:55 am to TerryDawg03
quote:That's a good link. Thanks. Notice the downward trend in their treasury holdings.
Glad to see they only own about $108B in US Treasurys as of October.
quote:Well, since they started selling their Treasury holdings months ago interest rates in the U.S. have gone down and the dollar has strengthened so....
If they dump them, hopefully it won't hurt too much.
. They show $108 billion in U.S. government debt holdings yet their Central Bank claims to have almost $500 billion in dollar reserves which they can use to defend the value of the ruble.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:56 am to tigerfoot
quote:
Russia is now reportedly selling some of its gold to raise dollars to support the ruble. Why would they be selling their gold reserves if the CBR actually owns a huge amount of dollars?
1234567vfl agrees
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:59 am to LSURussian
quote:That would be a disaster for Putin. This is post-Soviet Russia.
Yes. It's possible Putin will become even more militaristic in his European gambit. That may be the only way he keeps the Russians distracted from the pile of crap that is their economy.
The soldiers/navy will not keep working if they are not being paid like they did back then.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:03 am to LSURussian
So let's say they default some time next year. What happens then? I was 11 in 1998 and don't know anything about what reaction took place and the processes governments had in place to respond. Insight?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:12 am to Roaad
quote:What makes you assume they would not be paid?
The soldiers/navy will not keep working if they are not being paid
Plus, with the renewed nationalism that Putin has stirred up, I don't think the Russian military would consider not fighting to "defend Mother Russia."
And that is how Putin would frame it. They would be defending their Motherland and its people even if it looked like to the rest of us they were just invading the Baltics.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:13 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Right. So make the bet then...take advantage of the markets' optimism. That's all I'm saying.
This post was edited on 12/16/14 at 11:13 am
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:14 am to ell_13
Some very sage observations on this matter, one of the more thought out and enlightening threads on the board.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:16 am to LSURussian
, I am an idiot concerning this subject so have nothing to offer, but it is a pretty impressive prediction 
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