'Unprecedented': Voter turnout in election could reach highest rate in more than a century

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WASHINGTON – In Harris County, Texas, home to the nation's fourth-largest city, Houston, a record 128,000 people voted in person the first day of early voting last week. Then 115,000 the second day. And 105,000 the next.

It's hardly slowed down since.

Through the first eight days of early voting in Texas, 801,000 people voted in Harris County, eclipsing 93% of the county's 2016 early voting total, with 10 more days of early voting left.

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Now, early voting is smashing records across the country: North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan, other swing states in the race for president, have either surpassed or are approaching 40% of their overall 2016 turnout. More than 42 million people had voted early, either in-person or by mail, as of Wednesday afternoon, more than six times the 6 million who had voted early around this time in 2016.

"It's unprecedented," said Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, who manages the United States Elections Project.

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With less than two weeks before Election Day, voter turnout nationally has reached 30% of the overall 138.8 million people who voted four years ago. For the first time in election history, more people are expected to vote early than on Election Day.

McDonald, who tracks early voting numbers by the minute, said it's possible 85 million people could vote before Election Day and perhaps 150 million will vote in total. Ten times more mail ballots have been returned than at this point in 2016 and twice as many people have voted in-person.

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If voters on Election Day – who are expected to disproportionately favor Trump – turn out as expected, McDonald believes the U.S. could have the highest percentage of eligible voters actually vote since 1908.

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Turnout among those eligible to vote began to decline in 1972 and was in the low 50%-range throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The lowest mark in recent history was 1996 with 51.7% of the voter-eligible population participating. The rate started to rise in 2004 and has been at about 60% since. In 2016, 60.1% of the voter-eligible population voted.

After the 2018 midterm election, which was the highest midterm turnout since 1914, McDonald predicted the 2020 presidential election could hit the 1908 turnout rate. It would require more than 150 million people voting.

"There's no reason at this point to revise that downwards with these record numbers," McDonald said.

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Behind Texas, states with the most early votes as of Wednesday are California, 4.5 million; Florida, 3.7 million; North Carolina, 2.1 million; New Jersey, 2 million; and Michigan, 1.8 million.

States with the highest share of voters in relation to their overall 2016 turnout are: Texas, 59.3%; Vermont, 53.4%; New Jersey, 50%; New Mexico, 47.8%; Montana, 47.1%; Georgia, 45.9%; North Carolina, 45.2%; Tennessee, 42.6; Virginia, 39.3%; and Colorado, 37.5%.

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