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Message
TX voter registration pre and post Dobbs
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:23 pm
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:23 pm
quote:
Short thread on TX voter registration pre and post Dobbs.
At first blush, it appeared there was no real impact. Women accounted for 50% of new voter registrations this year before Dobbs, and that is unchanged since the decision was handed down on 6/24.
However, when you look at modeled partisanship of the new registrants, you see something significant. New registrants this year, prior to Dobbs, were modeled at +5 GOP. Since Dobbs, that has swung to a shocking +10 Dem, a 15 pt margin swing.
What's driving that swing? Young voters. Voters under the age of 25 accounted for 29% of new registrants this year, pre-Dobbs. Since Dobbs, those youngest voters comprise 37% of new voter registrations.
It's not just that younger voters are surging in TX since Dobbs. It's clear that those younger voters who are registering now (men and women) are far more Democratic. New registrants <25 pre-Dobbs were modeled at +5 Dem. Since Dobbs, they are +20 Dem.
LINK
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Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:26 pm to saintforlife1
Why should we believe Tom
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:27 pm to saintforlife1
So you saying Beto actually has a chance of beating Abbott this November? Incredible turn of events.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:30 pm to saintforlife1
What's a woman?
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:35 pm to saintforlife1
quote:
oung voters. Voters under the age of 25 accounted for 29% of new registrants this year, pre-Dobbs. Since Dobbs, those youngest voters comprise 37% of new voter registrations.
It's not just that younger voters are surging in TX since Dobbs. It's clear that those younger voters who are registering now (men and women) are far more Democratic.
I am in this bracket still, and I can with almost near certainty say that it boils down to a few very meaningless facts. Of these "new voterss", most are simply doing it for some form of "look at me" post on social media. Something along the lines of "I was so outraged by Dobbs or reproductive rights yadda yadda, that I registered to vote" and then post about it or make some stupid video for likes or pats on the back.
The fact is after 7 years these new voters suddenly deciding now is the time to register makes you wonder when voting day actually comes they will literally come up with or place anything of more importance than actually voting that day. Its sad but I have seen "kids" or people my age ask others that voted for their little stickers and then wear them. Its truly pathetic. Voting day comes most of these "new voters" will be the "I have to walk my fish crowd" why they could not make it to the polls.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:37 pm to Coastrashtiger
Murdering babies is important shite, man
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:38 pm to udtiger
And ignorance of the Constitution is also key
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:45 pm to saintforlife1
Great more emotional, low information, single issue voters in system. Let’s hope their passion runs empty by November
Posted on 8/27/22 at 6:51 pm to Coastrashtiger
quote:
Voting day comes most of these "new voters" will be the "I have to walk my fish crowd" why they could not make it to the polls
They don't have to go to the polls. 5 unsolicited ballots will be sent. They can send those in. If they don't, it can be assumed they won't go to the polls, so their vote can be cast.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 7:55 pm to Bulldogblitz
Younger Voter's dont vote, except the uber politically retarded, and there arent enough Young Beto Party whack jobs to matter in Texas.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 7:59 pm to saintforlife1
The people who support abortion have been killing babies for decades. There aren't enough young people like them to move the needle.
This post was edited on 8/27/22 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 8/27/22 at 8:04 pm to Bulldogblitz
quote:BIG NEON SIGN:quote:5 unsolicited ballots will be sent
TX voter registration
BullDogBlitz
Is Ignorant
Of Texas Law
This post was edited on 8/27/22 at 8:06 pm
Posted on 8/27/22 at 8:09 pm to AggieHank86
They will get Beto elected via fraud. They need him to open the border completely in Texas and squash the Texit movement.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 8:43 pm to saintforlife1
quote:
New registrants this year, prior to Dobbs, were modeled at +5 GOP. Since Dobbs, that has swung to a shocking +10 Dem, a 15 pt margin swing.
Just getting the illegals registered
Posted on 8/27/22 at 8:52 pm to saintforlife1
Missed at by whom and how? See one can “model” anything, it’s just a plug number and since there isn’t a party on voter registration this model is as like projecting as reflecting.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:14 pm to saintforlife1
None of that tweet thread is true.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:45 pm to DingLeeBerry
quote:I thought the Latino vote was rushing to turn red?
Just getting the illegals registered
Posted on 8/27/22 at 11:14 pm to Gravitiger
quote:
I thought the Latino vote was rushing to turn red?
the citizens are
Posted on 8/27/22 at 11:30 pm to WinnPtiger
quote:Thank goodness for DACA, right?
the citizens are
Posted on 8/27/22 at 11:52 pm to Gravitiger
quote:
Thank goodness for DACA, right?
not really, no. and the tejanos don’t like it either. next question
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